Mike Clay's rookie rankings for 2024

With the NFL combine behind us and the draft quickly approaching, it’s time to look at the fantasy football outlook for the 2024 crop of incoming rookies.

The rankings will change a bit once these players find an NFL home, but I’ve done an initial ranking of these the prospects based on my observations from their college careers. This pre-draft analysis will help you get a leg up on scouting the incoming talent.

Below is a ranking of the top 70 players who attended March’s combine at the four fantasy-relevant positions (QB, RB, WR, TE).

(Note: References to where a player ranks in a statistical category relative to this year’s class is referring to a sample that includes only players invited to the combine.)

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1. (WR1) Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (Height/Weight: 6-3/209): Harrison is a big, fast perimeter receiver with terrific speed and RAC (run after catch) ability. His 3.00 YPRR (yards per route run) in 38 collegiate games is tops in this class, and his 31 TDs in 38 games rank second. Harrison has the upside to be the next elite fantasy wide receiver, and he should be the top pick in non-superflex rookie drafts.

2. (WR2) Malik Nabers, LSU (6-0/200): Nabers is a fast, explosive receiver who can align all over the formation. His 3.67 YPRR in 2023 was easily tops in this class and his 3,003 career receiving yards ranks fourth in this class. Nabers has the skill set to emerge as an elite NFL receiver.

3. (WR3) Rome Odunze, Washington (6-3/212): Odunze is a big, fast receiver with terrific hands and ball skills who can align all over the formation and make plays deep down field. He has WR1 upside in fantasy.

4. (TE1) Brock Bowers, Georgia (6-3/243): Bowers is an elite TE prospect and potential fantasy superstar. The former Bulldog has terrific speed, hands, route-running and RAC ability. He caught at least 56 passes in all three collegiate seasons, scored 26 TDs in 40 games and led this class in target share (18%), YPR (14.5), YPT (10.8) and YPRR (2.7).

5. (WR4) Brian Thomas Jr., LSU (6-3/209): Thomas is a tall, perimeter receiver with terrific speed (4.33 40-yard dash) and acceleration. He didn’t see much work in his first two seasons at LSU, but he busted out in 2023 with 68 receptions, 1,177 yards and a nation-high 17 TD catches.

6. (WR5) Ladd McConkey, Georgia (6-0/186): McConkey is an undersized (but quick and reliable) target, having caught a class-best 81% of his targets in 2023 (his 75% career rate also paces this class). He’s coming off an injury-plagued 2023 in which he posted a class-low 11.6% target share when active, but he projects as a short-to-intermediate slot target who could soak up a ton of volume in the right offense.

7. (WR6) Adonai Mitchell, Texas (6-2/205): Mitchell is a big, fast perimeter receiver who was used as a vertical target (career 14.5 aDOT) and didn’t offer much post-catch (3.0 RAC is dead last in this WR class) in three collegiate seasons. He impressed at the combine with a 4.34 40 and class-best 11-4 broad jump.

8. (QB1) Caleb Williams, USC (6-1/214): The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner has the size, arm and accuracy to be the league’s next great QB and will add fantasy value with his legs (206-1,586-27 career rushing line). His career 9.2 YPA and 85.6 QBR (37 games) are tops in this class. He’s fair game with the first overall pick of superflex rookie drafts.

9. (QB2) Jayden Daniels, LSU (6-4/210): The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner posted some absolutely absurd numbers last season, including 40 passing TDs to only four INTs, as well as class-best marks in YPA (11.7) and total QBR (95.6). He added 113-1,230-10 on the ground (10.9 YPC), which highlights his elite rushing ability and positions him for immediate fantasy impact.

10. (WR7) Keon Coleman, Florida State (6-3/213): Coleman is a big, strong receiver who flashes with big plays but underwhelms in terms of long speed (4.61 40) and efficiency relative to the other top receiver prospects (his 7.8 YPT in 33 collegiate games is third worst in this class of 39 WRs … and it was 7.3 in 2023).

11. (WR8) Xavier Worthy, Texas (5-11/165): Worthy is a tiny but super-fast receiver who set the combine 40-yard dash record (4.21) in April. He handled 29% of the targets and 41% of the air yards during his three collegiate seasons, both of which top this class. He’ll eye a situational, deep-threat role in the pros.

12. (WR9) Xavier Legette, South Carolina (6-1/221): Legette is a big, strong receiver who is versatile and can help out as a rusher and kick returner. He played a minimal role during his first four seasons (42 receptions) at South Carolina before busting out with a 71-1,255-7 line in 2023. He posted the best WR speed score at the combine with a 4.39 40 at 221 pounds, though he’s a year or two older than most early-round WR prospects.

13. (RB1) Jonathon Brooks, Texas (6-0/216): Brooks didn’t get much run at Texas (238 carries, 32 targets), but he was effective as a rusher and receiver, posting impressive efficiency in both departments. He tore his ACL in November, but he is only 21 years old and has three-down ability.

14. (RB2) Trey Benson, Florida State (6-0/216): Benson is a big back with good speed (4.39 40) and a strong efficiency profile, which includes a 3.69 career YAC (fourth in class). He’s a capable receiver and blocker, so there’s three-down potential here.

15. (RB3) Jaylen Wright, Tennessee (5-11/210): Wright is a fast, explosive back with decent size who posted underwhelming career efficiency numbers with the Vols, but he did make a leap forward after contact (4.1) in 2023. Wright impressed at the combine (4.38 40 and class-best broad jump) and is an effective receiver and potential three-down back.

16. (QB3) Drake Maye, North Carolina (6-4/223): Maye’s 2023 production (63% C%, 8.5 YPA) didn’t stack up with other top prospects in this class, but he has the size, arm, aggressiveness (class-high 10.2 aDOT in 2023) and mobility (career 232-1,547-16 rushing line) to provide fantasy QB1 upside.

17. (WR10) Troy Franklin, Oregon (6-2/176): Franklin is a tall, thin receiver with decent speed. He posted an 81-1,383-14 receiving line in 2023 and his 45% air yard share was tops in this class.

18. (WR11) Roman Wilson, Michigan (5-10/185): Wilson is an undersized, fast receiver with good hands who saw limited volume (career 12% target share), but he posted good efficiency during his four seasons at Michigan.

19. (RB4) MarShawn Lloyd, USC (5-9/220): Lloyd is a quick, fast back (4.46 40 at 220 pounds) with an elite collegiate efficiency profile — his career 3.74 YAC ranks third and his 3.1 forced missed tackle rate first in this class. He does have a lengthy injury résumé and could settle in as a committee/change-of-pace role in the pros.

20. (RB5) Bucky Irving, Oregon (5-9/192): Irving was a high-volume, super-efficient and versatile weapon at the collegiate level. In three seasons, he soaked up 475 carries and 112 targets (class-high 10% target share) and was top 5 in this class in both YAC and forced missed tackle rate. There’s a lot to like, though he is undersized. He also disappointed at the combine (4.55 40).

21. (RB6) Audric Estime, Notre Dame (5-11/221): Estime is a big back who excelled after contact (3.64 YAC) on 373 career carries with the Irish. He didn’t see many targets but was effective when called on. He lacks speed (4.71 40) and figures to be busiest on early downs and at the goal line in the pros.

22. (RB7) Blake Corum, Michigan (5-8/205): Corum is a downhill, high-volume rusher, having soaked up 675 carries and a whopping 58 rushing TDs in four seasons at Michigan (most of that during the last two years). Corum isn’t as big or young as other top backs in this class and his efficiency is weak (2.76 YAC is third-lowest and his 5.6 forced missed tackle rate is fourth-worst in this class), but he’s a capable receiver and a good pass-blocker.

23. (RB8) Braelon Allen, Wisconsin (6-1/235): Allen is the biggest back in this class and also one of the youngest. His size limits his quickness and may limit his receiving work, but he’s a TD machine (35 in 35 collegiate games) and could land an early-down/goal-line role in the pros.

24. (WR12) Jermaine Burton, Alabama (6-0/196): Burton had the highest aDOT (18.9) and second-highest YPT (14.0) in this class in 2023. For his career, he ranked first in this class in YPR (18.0) and YPT (11.5) and second in aDOT (15.7). He showed great hands, dropping 2.4% of his 207 targets (second-best in class).

25. (WR13) Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky (5-11/215): Corley’s size and usage has drawn Deebo Samuel comparisons, as he posted a class-low 5.1 aDOT and an 8.8 RAC (second-highest) in 2023 (he was lowest and highest, respectively, in the categories for his career). Expect to see him in the slot and backfield quite a bit in the pros.

26. (WR14) Ricky Pearsall, Florida (6-1/189): Pearsall is a slot receiver with good hands and route-running ability. He showed his quickness in the three-cone drill and short shuttle at the combine, though he isn’t particularly fast and is one of the oldest prospects at the position at 23.

27. (WR15) Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington (6-1/203): A Field Yates sleeper special, Polk was a reliable and effective receiver during four collegiate seasons. He has good size and hands, having dropped only six of 226 targets in college (his 2.7% drop rate is third-best in this class).

28. (WR16) Devontez Walker, North Carolina (6-1/193): Walker is a tall, perimeter receiver likely to play a situational deep-threat role. His 17.8 aDOT ranked second and his 3.1 RAC second lowest in this class last season. He showed well at April’s combine.

29. (TE2) Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas (6-4/245): Sanders is a quality receiving TE prospect who posted terrific pass-catching efficiency in three seasons at Texas. He’s one of the youngest tight ends in this class and could require some development.

30. (QB4) J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (6-2/219): McCarthy was productive and effective in a run-heavy Michigan offense, but he leaves something to be desired in terms of strength and accuracy. He’s the youngest QB in this class (21) and could require some development.

31. (TE3) Cade Stover, Ohio State (6-4/247): Stover is a receiving TE who aligned in the slot on a class-high 51% of his collegiate routes while doing most of his damage in the short range. He’s an older prospect and never cleared a 13% target share in a season, but he has some potential as a pass-catcher.

32. (TE4) Theo Johnson, Penn State (6-6/259): Johnson is a big TE who showed his athleticism with a dominant combine, which included a class-best 119 speed score (4.57 40). Johnson’s best statistical season was a 34-341-7 receiving line (12% target share) in 2023.

33. (QB5) Bo Nix, Oregon (6-2/214): Nix, a five-year collegiate starter at Oregon and Auburn, was elite in 2023, posting class-best marks in passing TDs (45), completion rate (77%), INT rate (0.64%), sack rate (1.0%) and off-target rate (6.6%). He’s conservative (class-low 7.4 career aDOT), but he has a good arm and accuracy with the ability to add some value with his legs.

34. (QB6) Michael Penix Jr., Washington (6-2/216): Penix (24) is an “older” prospect who suffered major injuries (including a pair of torn ACLs) at Indiana before emerging at Washington the past two years. He has a good arm but is purely a pocket passer (95-443-13 career rushing line in 45 games)

35. (RB9) Jase McClellan, Alabama (5-10/221): McClellan is a big back who delivered impressive efficiency numbers during his four seasons at Alabama. That included a 3.45 YAC and 5.3 broken tackle rate (second-best). He fumbled once on 395 touches and has enough pass-catching ability to help on all three downs.

36. (RB10) Isaac Guerendo, Louisville (6-0/221): Guerendo is a big, fast back with the ability to contribute as a rusher, receiver, pass-blocker and kick returner. He ran an RB-best 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine (at 221 pounds!), though he’s old for a rookie (24) and never cleared 132 carries or 25 targets in any of his five collegiate seasons.

37. (RB11) Will Shipley, Clemson (5-11/206): Shipley was busy as a rusher (526 carries), receiver (108 targets) and returner (34 KRs) at Clemson, but his efficiency profile was one of the worst in this class. That includes a horrific 2.72 YAC (second-worst). He’ll likely settle in as a versatile backup.

38. (RB12) Ray Davis, Kentucky (5-8/211): Davis’ collegiate efficiency wasn’t very good (class-worst 4.9 YPC), but he didn’t get much help (class-low 1.78 yards before contact). He’s a capable pass-catcher (94-762-12 receiving line in 44 games) but is also one of the oldest backs in this class.

39. (RB13) Tyrone Tracy Jr., Purdue (5-11/209): Tracy was primarily a receiver during his first four collegiate seasons, but he was extremely effective in an expanded role as a rusher in 2023. He ended his career with a class-best 3.83 YAC (albeit on 145 carries) and a 112-1,179-5 receiving line. He’s an older, but versatile and athletic, prospect.

40. (WR17) Jalen McMillan, Washington (6-1/197): McMillan was productive as a slot receiver during his final two seasons with the Huskies, which included a 79-1,098-9 showing in 2022.

41. (WR18) Brenden Rice, USC (6-2/208): Jerry’s son, Brenden is a big, tough, perimeter receiver who posted solid efficiency on 184 targets and as a kick returner at Colorado and USC.

42. (WR19) Javon Baker, UCF (6-1/202): Baker averaged a class-high 21.9 yards per reception in 2023. He was impactful as a perimeter, vertical target in two seasons at UCF, but he struggled a bit with drops (7.8% rate).

43. (WR20) Jamari Thrash, Louisville (6-0/188): Thrash posted impressive efficiency and heavy late-career volume during five collegiate seasons across Georgia State and Louisville. He’s a perimeter receiver with decent speed and saw most of his targets in the short area and on deep targets.

44. (WR21) Malik Washington, Virginia (5-8/191): Washington aligned in the slot on a class-high 82% of his career routes. He handled a class-high 38% target share and his 3.27 YPRR ranked fourth in this class in 2023. He has good hands and will eye a slot/returner role in the pros.

45. (WR22) Luke McCaffrey, Rice (6-2/198): Christian’s brother, McCaffrey is a tall, slot receiver who dealt with weak QB play in college (class-low 67% catchable target rate). He’s a work in progress, having converted from QB to WR in 2022, but he’s a tough player with good hands and quickness and will eye a slot role in the pros.

46. (TE5) Ben Sinnott, Kansas State (6-4/250): Sinnott showed well athletically at the combine (class-best vertical, broad and three cone) and paced this class with a 9.2 aDOT in three collegiate seasons. He was mostly inline at KSU and has potential as a receiver and blocker.

47. (WR23) Johnny Wilson, Florida State (6-6/231): Wilson is the biggest wide receiver in this class and, while his speed is good for his size (4.52 40), he may lack separation ability against corners. He dropped a class-high 10 passes in 2023 and his 9.6% career drop rate is also worst in this WR class. A move to TE could be in the cards.

48. (QB7) Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (6-0/211): Rattler was conservative (7.5 aDOT) but solid (8.2 YPA, class-best 69% C%) during his five seasons at Oklahoma and South Carolina. He lacks size and arm strength and won’t add a ton with his legs.

49. (RB14) Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State (6-0/218): Davis is a big, physical back without much speed. Granted, he was at the FBS level, but Davis ran for 1,400-plus yards in both 2022 and 2023 and showed some receiving ability with 44 catches across the two campaigns.

50. (RB15) Dylan Laube, New Hampshire (5-10/206): Laube is an undersized but versatile player who could play either WR or RB in the pros (and contribute as a returner). His collegiate rushing production underwhelmed, but he put up massive receiving numbers, including a 117-1,163-9 line in his final two seasons. Consider him a PPR sleeper if he sticks at RB.

51. (RB16) Dillon Johnson, Washington (6-0/217): Johnson is a big, tough back without a ton of speed (4.68 40) and quickness. His collegiate efficiency was poor (2.69 YAC ranks last in this class) and, though he was extremely busy as a receiver (198 targets and 173 receptions are easily class highs), he wasn’t super effective there either (5.3 YPT).

52. (RB17) Kendall Milton, Georgia (6-2/225): Milton is a big, tough back who figures to be busy on early downs and at the goal line in the pros. His collegiate rushing efficiency was terrific, though he was a nonfactor as a receiver (14 targets in 42 games).

53. (WR24) Ainias Smith, Texas A&M (5-9/190): Smith is a small slot receiver who soaked up a class-high 102 return attempts in five seasons at Texas A&M. He’s a versatile gadget player, having added a 72-405-4 rushing line at A&M.

54. (WR25) Jacob Cowing, Arizona (5-8/168): Cowing soaked up a 28% target share (second highest in the class) during five collegiate seasons. He aligned in the slot 77% of the time and disappointed in terms of speed, quickness and athleticism at the combine. He’ll eye a depth WR and punt returner role.

55. (WR26) Anthony Gould, Oregon State (5-8/174): Gould is a tiny receiver with good speed who can work outside or in the slot and as a punt returner. There’s potential here, though it’s concerning that he maxed out at 44 receptions, 718 yards and three TDs in five collegiate seasons.

56. (WR27) Isaiah Williams, Illinois (5-9/182): Williams is a small slot receiver who aligned inside on 76% of his collegiate routes. His career 6.4 aDOT is second-lowest in this class. The former QB posted a class-worst speed score at the combine (4.63) and will eye a depth receiver/punt returner role.

57. (WR28) Jha’Quan Jackson, Tulane (5-9/188): Jackson is a small slot receiver and special-teamer who accrued a class-high 96 return attempts during his five seasons at Tulane. He’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands (career 7.3 RAC) and will eye a gadget/slot/returner role in the pros.

58. (TE6) Dallin Holker, Colorado State (6-3/241): Holker is a receiving TE lacking speed (class-worst 4.78 40-yard dash), but he shows good quickness (6.83 three cone). He doesn’t block much and was primarily utilized as a vertical target in college (8.7 aDOT). He paced this class in targets (109), receptions (64) and receiving yards (767) in 2023.

59. (TE7) Erick All, Iowa (6-4/252): Medical concerns are big here, as All was limited to 10 games in 2022-23, which included a torn ACL in October. His collegiate efficiency wasn’t great, but he was busy as an intermediate target and averaged a class-high 23% target share when active in 2023.

60. (TE8) Jared Wiley, TCU (6-6/249): Wiley is a tall TE who played sparingly in college prior to a Year-5 breakout (47-520-8) in 2023. He can play in-line and has some blocking potential.

61. (TE9) Jaheim Bell, Florida State (6-2/241): Bell is an undersized but tough tight end/fullback. His receiving efficiency is terrific, as he ranks top 2 in YPT (10.1), YPRR (2.5), RAC (9.5) and catch rate (76%) in this TE class.

62. (QB8) Jordan Travis, Florida State (6-1/200): Travis is an undersized QB with a decent arm and accuracy who threw 44 TDs to seven INTs during his final two seasons. He ran for 2,410 yards in his five seasons at FSU and produced seven rushing TDs in each of his final four campaigns.

63. (RB18) Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss (5-8/201): The son of an NFL legend, Gore is an undersized, elusive back who posted pedestrian efficiency during four collegiate seasons. In Gore’s defense, he didn’t have much help (2.5 yards before contact) and was a factor as a rusher (759 carries) and receiver (95 targets).

64. (RB19) Cody Schrader, Missouri (5-9/202): Schrader is one of the oldest players in this draft, and the Truman State transfer’s efficiency in two seasons at Missouri was not good. He ranked near the bottom of the class in YAC (3.00) and was dead last in forced-missed-tackle rate (6.4). He checked in small and without speed (4.61 40) at the combine.

65. (RB20) Rasheen Ali, Marshall (5-11/206): Ali can contribute as a rusher, receiver and blocker, though his collegiate efficiency was poor. In fact, his broken-tackle rate was easily dead last.

66. (RB21) Emani Bailey, TCU (5-7/202): Bailey is the shortest back in this class, and his underwhelming combine showing, which included a 4.61 40-yard dash, is a concern. He’s elusive and has some receiving ability, so a change-of-pace role is likely in the cards.

67. (WR29) Tahj Washington, USC (6-0/174): Washington caught 50-plus passes in all three seasons at USC and capped it off with a 59-1,062-8 line in 2023. He was tops in this class in RAC (9.0) and YPT (14.2) during that 2023 campaign. He’s undersized and will battle for a slot gig (88% slot during final two seasons) and return work.

68. (WR30) Cornelius Johnson, Michigan (6-3/212): A big, strong perimeter target, Johnson struggled with efficiency and never cleared 47 receptions or 627 yards in five seasons at Michigan (he cleared three TDs once).

69. (WR31) Tayvion Robinson, Kentucky (5-11/191): Robinson is an undersized, quick slot receiver who lived on short-range targets at Kentucky and Virginia Tech. He failed to clear 52 receptions, 592 yards or five TDs in any of his five campaigns, but he added value as a rusher (39-277-0 career line) and as a returner.

70. (WR32) Bub Means, Pittsburgh (6-1/212): Means is a converted cornerback who helped his stock with a solid showing at the combine. He has decent size and big hands to go along with good speed. He was busy as a deep threat in college (class-high 15.9 aDOT) and may play the same role in the pros.