Playoff watch: Making sense of the Metro Division

With the trade deadline behind us, we’ve rounded the corner to the final part of the season: the rush to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

As things stand on Monday, the Eastern Conference playoff bracket includes four teams from the Atlantic Division and four from the Metropolitan. The New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes look pretty secure in their postseason slots; Stathletes’ projections agree, with each club having a 99.9% chance of qualifying. Then things get interesting.

The Philadelphia Flyers, with 74 points in 65 games, are in the No. 3 spot, and are a tiebreaker behind the first wild card, then Tampa Bay Lightning (were Philly to fall out of contention for the top three Metro Division spots). Stathletes gives the Flyers a 28.5% chance of sticking in the No. 3 spot, a 5.6% chance of getting the first wild card, and a 19.2% chance of getting the second.

That leads us to the New York Islanders. After Sunday’s win against the Anaheim Ducks, they are tied in points with the Detroit Red Wings for the second wild card (but ahead on points percentage for now), and two points behind Philly in the Metro race. Stathletes likes the Isles’ chances of getting in the No. 3 seed more than the Flyers’, with New York’s at 45.9%. The Isles have a 5.8% chance of the first wild card, and 17.1% of the second.

The Washington Capitals — who subtracted at the deadline, though maybe not as much as some predicted — are three points back of the wild card and five back of the Flyers; their overall playoff chances sit at 41.3%. Finally, the New Jersey Devils, who finished with 112 points in the standings last season, are six back of the wild card and eight back of the Flyers. Their chances of a playoff berth in any fashion are at 11.2%.

Four of those teams will be in action tonight: Devils-Rangers (7 p.m. ET, NHL Network), Capitals-Winnipeg Jets (7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), and Islanders-Los Angeles Kings (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). We won’t have any definitive answers after the games this evening, but the desperation level has certainly ramped up for the clubs currently on the outside looking in.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

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Monday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

St. Louis Blues at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets, 7:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.

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Sunday’s scoreboard

Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Minnesota Wild 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 7, Calgary Flames 2
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Arizona Coyotes 4
New York Islanders 6, Anaheim Ducks 1

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 87.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 29.4%
Tragic number: 36

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4.2%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 53.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 94
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 69.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 41.3%
Tragic number: 37

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 11.2%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18

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Central Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ WPG (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 88.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 8.5%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.7%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 72
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 49
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 89.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 87.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 11.4%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 13.8%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 63
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.