NHL playoff watch: Predictions for the Flyers' finish this season

The Philadelphia Flyers have been one of the biggest surprises of the 2023-24 NHL season. In the preseason, the front office attempted to be realistic with the fans regarding the ongoing rebuild and how this might not be the season for a playoff return. But then the team kept piling on win after win, something that wasn’t a shock to the players on the ice.

Philly did a fair bit of dealing ahead of the March 8 trade deadline, but it remains in a playoff spot heading into Thursday night’s matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu). What should fans expect from here on out? Let’s project a bit.

The Flyers are currently in the No. 3 spot in the Metro Division; they’re two points ahead of the first wild card, the Tampa Bay Lightning, but one regulation win behind (and the Lightning have a game in hand). They are four points and five regulation wins ahead of the New York Islanders, who currently sit in the second wild-card spot but are also aiming for the Flyers’ position in the Metro. New York has two games in hand on Philly.

Overall, the Flyers have a 77.1% chance of earning a playoff bid of some variety, per Stathletes. If they remain the No. 3 seed in the Metro, it’s becoming increasingly likely that this will result in a first-round matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes; the Canes are six points and two regulation wins behind the New York Rangers. The Flyers have lost both of their home games to the Canes this season, but they won the game in Raleigh, with one more game there remaining (March 21).

Should the Flyers slip back to a wild-card spot, a matchup against the Rangers would not be the preferred route: they’ve lost both contests to the Blueshirts (with two remaining, March 26 and April 11). On the other hand, if they draw the Florida Panthers, they might have a puncher’s chance: the Flyers have won both matchups thus far against them (with one game remaining, March 24).

Nevertheless, Stathletes does not necessarily foresee a long playoff run: the Flyers are projected with a 27.2% chance of making the second round, 10.7% chance of making the conference finals, 3.9% chance of reaching the Stanley Cup Final, and 1.4% chance of winning it all. Of course, this current Flyers club has ample experience silencing the doubters this season, so perhaps they have more surprises in store.

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

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Thursday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, 7 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.

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Wednesday’s scoreboard

St. Louis Blues 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Nashville Predators 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Edmonton Oilers 7, Washington Capitals 2
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 117
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 88.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 22.2%
Tragic number: 34

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.8%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 73
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 114
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 80.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 74.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 20.2%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.4%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3.6%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 68
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 16

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Central Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 94.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1.7%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 20.2%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 49
Next game: vs. LA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 84.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 88.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 9.9%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 1.2%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 50
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 41
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.