Sunday, December 22, 2024
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NCAA gymnastics expert picks: Who will win SECs, Pac-12s … and nationals?

ndowd
Mar 21, 2024, 08:39 AM ET

There’s no doubt that two-time defending national champ Oklahoma has dominated the NCAA gymnastics season so far. The Sooners spent the regular season ranked No. 1 overall every week, and are currently first on vault, bars and beam, and second on floor.

But No. 2 California and No. 3 LSU have each shown the potential to upset Oklahoma.

As we head into the postseason, we asked our experts: Who is going to win the conference and national titles? Which routine has been the best of the season? And … what do they think of the judging this year? Here’s what they had to say.

If you had to pick the top routine of the season so far, what would you choose?

Kennedy Baker: Anya Pilgrim’s 10.0 on floor. Her reaction when she got it was amazing, and such a lovely moment for her and the team. She has been a solid competitor for the Florida team, and has so much grace and poise when she competes. I really enjoy watching her gymnastics and look forward to seeing her in the postseason.

Kathy Johnson Clarke: Oh my, this is always difficult. I have many favorites and for different reasons! First, a shoutout to all the incredible all-arounders this year with Haleigh Bryant leading the extraordinary pack! Top routines that had an immediate and memorable impact on me in the moment were:

Vault: Haleigh Bryant’s front pike half and Kat LeVasseur’s Yurchenko 1.5

Bars: Audrey Davis

Beam: Konnor McClain

Floor: Aleah Finnegan, Ella Hodges, Chae Campbell, Mya Hooten and Raena Worley

Alex Perlman: It’s between two for me and that’s because they’re so similar. Raena Worley and Sienna Schreiber’s first career 10.0s. These gymnasts have been performing near-perfect to perfect routines for five years and have never been rewarded. It was beyond thrilling to see all that hard work pay off in their final seasons.

John Roethlisberger: That is impossible to choose. If you are going to twist my arm, I’ll go with Davis’ bar routine. However, you can never go wrong with Bryant’s vault. There’s many more, but you made me pick, so there!

Anastasia Webb: This is a tough one! There has been outstanding gymnastics all season long. I would have to pick LeVasseur’s Yurchenko 1.5 on vault. Her attention to detail, execution and consistency is incomparable. Even when I watch her in slow-mo … not a single deduction can be found!

D’Arcy Maine: As she recently secured a single-season “Gym Slam,” any of Bryant’s routines could go here — her front handspring front pike half vault is unbelievable — but her performance on floor has truly wowed me all season long. This routine has it all — powerful and sky-high tumbling, fun choreography and an infectious energy that embodies everything that is great about college gymnastics. I can’t wait to see her perform this at the SEC championships and beyond.

Which team has impressed you the most this season?

Baker: Cal. They have steadily climbed in the rankings, and have delivered well-executed and dynamic routines. They are definitely one of my favorites to watch this year, and I think they’re going to make it to the final four. I would like to also include Arkansas, as they’ve had a record-breaking season as well. The amount of depth that the Arkansas team has shown this year has given them an edge, and they have continued to surprise and impress me.

Johnson Clarke: Oklahoma is as impressive as always, but I’ll single out Cal. I covered them the second weekend of season and they looked so sharp and impressive and have only gotten better all season long. Their clean routines and consistency are closest to that of Oklahoma’s and the pure quality of their gymnastics is remarkable. Florida’s improvement each week after a slow start has also been impressive.

Perlman: While there are a few excellent choices, I’m going with Cal. I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised with stars like Mya Lauzon and eMjae Frazier, but after just a 7th place finish at nationals last year, they seem primed to challenge for the championship this year. They’ve already won the PAC-12 outright for the first time and have all the momentum heading into the postseason. Watch out for the Golden Bears.

Honorable mention: Kentucky. What Tim Garrison has built in Lexington is really impressive and they’ll have a say come nationals.

Roethlisberger: This is going to sound boring but Oklahoma. Just when you think maybe this will be the year they take a step back, they get even better. They have been dominant and made it look so easy in the process. I also think Kentucky has really taken a step forward this year. They are an energetic and fun team to watch.

Webb: Cal and Arkansas have impressed me most!

Maine: Just one? That is tough. I’ve been so impressed by Oklahoma’s focus and quiet domination, California’s consistency and self-belief, LSU’s depth, Clemson’s standout inaugural season and their home crowds … I could go on and on. But there’s been something this year about Michigan State that really stands out. The Spartans don’t get the same amount of attention as many of their top-10 peers, but the way they absolutely rolled through their Big 10 conference schedule deserves to be mentioned. MSU went 9-0 in Big Ten competition and clinched the regular season title in February. The Spartans could be one to watch in the postseason.

How would you judge the judging overall this year? (10.0 being the perfect score, of course.)

Baker: I would give the judging this year a 6. There are way too many deductions being overlooked, and it is unfair to the athletes. There are a lot of routines this year, and the last several years, that have been both under and over-scored, and it is time to take a look at our judging system as a whole. It has to be consistent across the board too. All conferences should receive the same type of scoring.

Johnson Clarke: I don’t want to give a score, but scores this season were fantastical and, at times, nonsensical. I love the excitement of high scores and breaking records, especially since gymnasts have worked so hard to fine-tune details and improve execution, competition consistency, and more stuck landings than ever, but the judging was a little bonkers.

Perlman: 9.8. I do not envy the judges’ jobs in this age of former elite gymnasts and Olympians competing in such strong numbers, and with NIL and the sport’s growing popularity. That said, they are only human and can get caught up in the raucous atmosphere of a meet. Many of the 10.0s have been perfect, but some also haven’t. They can’t be afraid to take a small deduction if a routine warrants it. But overall they’ve done a really nice job this year!

Roethlisberger: I’d say about 9.6. Same issues, different year. Too many high scores and deductions that aren’t being applied. That being said, the most important question is are the right teams/gymnasts winning? I think the answer to that has been a pretty consistent yes. As we go into the postseason, that’s the only thing that matters, that the right teams are winning, regardless of whether the scores have been perfectly accurate.

Maine: A 9.65. Or a Tennessee Collegiate Classic 9.85. I love seeing history made and records broken, but when it seems like every school is breaking records every single week, it diminishes the achievements. I recognize being a judge is an incredibly challenging job, and I do think judges often are simply working within the current code of points, but over-scoring has become a major talking point this season — for good reason — and it takes away from the truly great performances and meets.

What rule change would you make if you could?

Baker: I would make two rule changes to collegiate gymnastics if the decisions were up to me. I would first devalue two-pass routines, similar to how the Yurchenko full on vault was devalued several years ago. I would have two-pass routines starting from a 9.95, unless they have an E value pass. I miss the endurance, drama and stamina aspect of floor that three-pass routines offer, and by devaluing two-pass routines, I think we would have more diversity and fairness in scoring.

I would also devalue bar routines without a single bar release move (high to high) to a 9.95.

Johnson Clarke: No single rule change can fix everything, but I would like to see a committee of coaches and judges decide what is most important in defining the standard of perfection on each event and create a streamlined Code of Points that clearly defines and mandates the use of all available judging tools to assess each important area. Investing in creating, teaching, training, testing and evaluating judges using an NCAA-specific Code of Points and judging system could develop uniform consistency across all teams in every conference.

Aly Raisman: I would love to see a rule change encouraging a more diverse set of skills/routines. Sometimes I feel that we see similar skills over and over again.

Roethlisberger: I think it would be exciting to see team scoring go to a six up, six scores count format, or even a five up five count. Teams would no longer be able to drop their low score or drop a fall if they had one. Every score, every mistake would matter. It would be intense.

Maine: This isn’t one rule change per se, but I would love to see some sort of reevaluation of the code of points to make scoring a 10.0 even harder and to more fairly reward the most difficult routines and skills. The Yurchenko full vault was downgraded from a 10.0 start value to a 9.95 in 2015, and the change has helped separate the best vaulters from the rest — why not do that with some other skills as well?

Who will win the hotly contested SEC and Pac-12 conference championships this weekend?

Johnson Clarke: I believe LSU has the consistent lineups, strong leadership, passionate drive, cohesive commitment and perhaps most important, the momentum needed to win SECs this year.

And Cal has impressed me so much all year and won the regular season head-to-head meet with Utah, so I think this could be their year to win. That said, as I write, UCLA just made a good argument for themselves on senior night. Both SECs and Pac-12s are going to be great meets!

Perlman: In the SEC, this is LSU’s year. They are too loaded and consistent and will have the added edge of competing in New Orleans once again in front of a mass of Tigers fans. The Pac-12 championship is Cal’s to lose. They are deep and clicking at the right time, with multiple 198s in March. After clinching the conference outright for the first time, the Golden Bears will hoist the trophy.

Raisman: I think LSU will win SECs and Cal will win Pac-12s.

Roethlisberger: LSU and Cal — looking forward to these two teams facing off in the NCAA championships.

Webb: LSU and Cal. For LSU, I have been so impressed with Bryant and Aleah Finnegan’s difficult gymnastics skills and their great leadership. And Cal continues to impress me each week. I love to watch rising stars Lauzon and Frazier.

Maine: Both of these championships are going to be so competitive and fun to watch, with multiple teams in each having legitimate chances for victory. That said, based mostly on overall consistency throughout the season and rock-steady stars like Bryant and Frazier, I think LSU will win the SEC title and California will become the Pac-12 champions.

Who are your picks for the final four teams at NCAA championships? And who will win the title?

Baker: My picks are Florida, Oklahoma, Cal, and Kentucky. Oklahoma and Cal have both had incredible seasons, and there is no denying that these are the teams to beat this year. However, Florida is still in the fight, consistently growing in scores and hit routines, and they cannot be counted out. Similar to Florida, Kentucky has had an amazing year, led by their fantastic senior class. They have done remarkable things for the Kentucky program this year, and I think we’ll see them in the final four as well.

Johnson Clarke: Oklahoma, LSU, Cal, Florida, Utah, Kentucky … and so many other top teams have an equal shot here!

Perlman: There might be more teams capable of advancing to the season’s final day than ever before. The top 10 is truly stacked, but I will go with Oklahoma, Florida, Cal and LSU.

I don’t know how anyone could possibly pick against Oklahoma to three-peat. Their consistency is superhuman. When they don’t score 198 it’s a shock and seeing at least one 10.0 from their core of Kat LeVasseur, Audrey Davis, Ragan Smith, Faith Torrez and Jordan Bowers is pretty much a guarantee every meet. Give me the Sooners, but I think Cal, LSU and Florida are more than capable of taking home the title. Oklahoma’s just too good.

Roethlisberger: My top three aren’t surprising: OU, LSU, Cal. But I’m going to go with an underdog for my fourth team, that being Kentucky. It’s going to be really competitive. There are probably close to 10 teams that could make a run at that fourth spot, but Kentucky is on fire this year, and I think they could do it.

Webb: Anything can happen when it comes to the championship. My top picks are Oklahoma, LSU, Cal, Utah and Florida. Oklahoma has been unstoppable all season long, and has continued to break school records. LSU has depth, grit, and is on the hunt for that title. Cal’s impressive difficulty and clean execution give it an edge on the competition floor. Utah and Florida are consistently bringing great scores, and continue to get better each week. I am excited for all these schools and amazing athletes.

Maine: Oklahoma, California, LSU and Kentucky are my current picks for the final four. Ultimately, while I think it could be a very competitive championship meet, the Sooners will win their third-straight NCAA title and seventh overall.


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