South Carolina advances, but Gamecocks no longer look invincible

ALBANY, N.Y. — Just 2 minutes, 30 seconds into the third quarter of Friday’s Sweet 16 game, South Carolina looked like it was embarking on another women’s NCAA tournament runaway. The Gamecocks had built a 22-point lead on an Indiana team that seemed to be barely hanging on.

But the Hoosiers had plenty left. They rallied and ended up giving South Carolina a scare similar to what Tennessee did to the Gamecocks in the SEC tournament semifinals when the Lady Vols erased a 23-point deficit.

Indiana outscored South Carolina by 13 points in the second half and got the deficit down to two with 1:08 to play. Raven Johnson made a 3-pointer and a free throw in the final minute that was just enough for the Gamecocks to win 79-75, remain undefeated and move to the Elite Eight for the fourth consecutive year.

But did the disappearance of another big lead leave more questions than answers for the Gamecocks?

Andrea Adelson, Charlie Creme and Michael Voepel examine what the future might now hold for South Carolina, the No. 1 overall seed.

South Carolina is moving on, but the game wasn’t decided until the final minute. What vulnerabilities did Indiana help expose Friday?

Adelson: In her postgame comments, South Carolina coach Dawn Staley mentioned that she still has a relatively young team that makes unwise decisions at times. And some of those decisions helped Indiana get back into the game. Staley said players started taking ill-advised shots. Instead of continuing to feed the ball inside to Kamilla Cardoso, who could then kick out to set up a much better shot, players were launching long-range jumpers that kept missing. “When we build a lead, they think any shot is a good shot,” Staley said. “We took some bad shots that led to easy buckets for them.”

Creme: The biggest thing is that this South Carolina team doesn’t have the same closing skills as most of Staley’s best teams, primarily on defense. While this version of the Gamecocks might be more skilled than last year’s team, it doesn’t put away teams in the same way. Opponents now know that even a big South Carolina lead can be overcome if they stick to the game plan just like Indiana did in getting its 3-point shooters good looks, an area where South Carolina has shown it can lose focus.

Voepel: Credit has to go to Indiana, a veteran team that didn’t fold when the game appeared over. Guard Sydney Parrish said the Hoosiers’ strategy going in was to take some risks both offensively and defensively, and by the second half those decisions worked more often than they didn’t.

As Andrea and Charlie said, we’ve seen some differences between this year’s Gamecocks and last year’s in that they have almost let 20-plus-point leads get away in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments. Last season, the Gamecocks lost in the Final Four, but in that game Iowa had South Carolina on its heels most of the night. The two near-losses this year came when the Gamecocks didn’t finish off their foes, and that is something you know Staley will hammer home before they face Oregon State.

Is it time for South Carolina to worry?

Voepel: There is some reason for concern. Oregon State is a tough-nosed defensive team, and with 264 3-pointers this season, the Beavers have made almost as many as Indiana (268). And we saw what the Hoosiers almost did Friday thanks to their 3-point shooting.

That said, perhaps this was the Gamecocks’ scare of the tournament, and they will have even stronger performances from here on out.

“Offensively, I think we were just a little stuck, not getting [in] the flow of things,” Bree Hall said of the Gamecocks’ struggles in the second half. “But we’re going to take note of that and change some things around.

“We’d rather not have a close game like this, of course, but I think it’ll be beneficial just because when the pressure is on, we have to be able to execute. We’ll look back at this game and see that we were able to execute and defend, as well. That was one of the key things for that game.”

Creme: South Carolina is just fine. Certainly, Staley has some things to tighten up. One is a greater focus on getting Cardoso — who scored 22 points on 10-for-12 shooting — the ball on offense. Some more discipline against shooters defensively is another, but the Gamecocks’ status as the big favorite in this tournament is still intact.

Adelson: Indiana presents challenges that perhaps future opponents do not — namely, its ability to shoot from anywhere. The Hoosiers were always going to be a tough out, as the nation’s best field goal shooting team and third-ranked 3-point shooting team. When they started hitting those 3s, they were able to close a large deficit. Oregon State will provide a challenge inside, but you can bet Staley will be making sure her players tighten up their 3-point D.

What can Oregon State and future South Carolina opponents take away from Indiana’s performance?

Adelson: Indiana forward Mackenzie Holmes said afterward that the Hoosiers watched the way Tennessee played South Carolina in the SEC tournament semifinal and knew coming back from a large deficit would be possible. As Charlie mentioned earlier, an inability to close is something that South Carolina still has to learn. But part of that conversation is that opponents aren’t intimidated if they fall behind, especially at this stage when every team left has a reason to be here.

Voepel: As efficient and effective as Cardoso was, she actually didn’t shoot enough. When someone is that unstoppable, you just keep pounding the ball into them. Opponents are going to try to force South Carolina into fewer touches for the 6-foot-7 Cardoso, which is a difficult task. But if they can do it, the pressure then goes to a Gamecocks guard corps that is extremely good but took some shots they shouldn’t have Friday.

South Carolina is still the front-runner, but does Friday’s close call make a Gamecocks title feel less inevitable?

Creme: Perhaps a little shine is off South Carolina’s national title rose, but the Gamecocks are still the favorites. Their depth is still a big advantage. Even in Friday’s close call, Staley had more options to turn to and the ability to go with the players with whom she was most comfortable. She could go with either Te-Hina Paopao or Raven Johnson on the wing on Cardoso’s side of the court. She had Ashlyn Watkins or Chloe Kitts to defend inside next to Cardoso. Against Indiana, Staley elected to go with Tessa Johnson to defend the Hoosiers’ shooters. She also has MiLaysia Fulwiley as an option. Nearly every other coach in this tournament doesn’t have those choices in crunch time.

Adelson: I go back to last season, when South Carolina was undefeated at this stage and it all felt like an inevitability the Gamecocks would repeat as national champions. Until they didn’t. The key difference, though, is that they have been tested repeatedly this season. Before Indiana, it was Tennessee. Then it was LSU in the SEC title game. That’s three times in the past five games that South Carolina had to find a way to win a close game in the fourth quarter.

All that to say, I still think South Carolina is the front-runner because of its overall talent and depth. But if, say, Iowa shoots 13 3-pointers the way Indiana did … why wouldn’t the Hawkeyes have a chance if the inevitable rematch comes?

Voepel: The funny thing is, a South Carolina national championship actually seemed even more inevitable last season. Up until the buzzer sounded in the loss to Iowa, it felt like South Carolina was still going to pull out the victory. That team was so experienced and talented, it didn’t seem like it could lose until it actually happened.

This is a better shooting team, but as we’ve made clear, these Gamecocks have been tested more. Does that make them less vulnerable to an upset, or more? There is zero doubt they remain the clear favorite, especially with the high quality of their depth as Charlie mentioned. But that’s not quite the same as being invincible, which is no doubt part of what Staley will try to relay to her team, without damaging its confidence.