Women's Final Four picks: Which teams will play for the title — and who wins?

CLEVELAND — This women’s Final Four has it all: an undefeated team (South Carolina), the national player of the year (Iowa‘s Caitlin Clark), the player with the greatest comeback story this season (UConn‘s Paige Bueckers) and the gritty underdogs who assume no one picked them to get here (NC State).

During the regionals, the No. 1 overall seed Gamecocks were challenged in both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. A rematch of last season’s national championship between Iowa and LSU drew a record television audience of more than 12 million viewers. UConn held off rising star JuJu Watkins and USC. And NC State advanced to the Final Four for the first time since 1998.

Will coach Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks become the 10th Division I women’s basketball team to finish a season unbeaten since the NCAA era began in 1981-82?

Will UConn, which won four NCAA titles in a row from 2013 to 2016 but hasn’t won since, get its 12th national championship?

Or will Iowa or NC State win it all for the first time?

ESPN’s Andrea Adelson, Charlie Creme, Kevin Pelton, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel break down everything we’ve seen and what might unfold in Cleveland, and join ESPN’s Katie Barnes and Jake Trotter, as well as Andscape’s Sean Hurd, in predicting the next three games.

Record ratings, title game rematches, another perfect run. Where does March Madness 2024 rank compared to previous NCAA tournaments?

Creme: Nothing in my 20 years covering women’s basketball has approached the buzz around this tournament. When casual acquaintances are asking questions, good questions, about Clark, Bueckers and South Carolina, or texts are rolling in during games because friends and family are watching the games with passion and true investment, it’s just different. Some of those dominant UConn teams were always intriguing because they were so good. All the star power then was coming out of Storrs. Now it’s spread around the country, and Clark represents the greatest star any of us have seen. If we get Final Four games like 2018, when both semifinals went to overtime and the championship game was won at the buzzer by Notre Dame’s Arike Ogunbowale, nothing could top this NCAA tournament.

Adelson: I’m no Naismith Hall of Famer like Michael Voepel, the dean of women’s basketball reporters, but this sport has had a place in my heart since I was a student at the University of Florida covering the Gators’ one and only run to the Elite Eight in 1998. Back then, we had titans in the game as coaches and players, and the battles between Geno Auriemma and Pat Summitt will always be the stuff of legend. But there is something different about this moment. People are not only watching the games, as the record numbers show. They are talking about women’s basketball. They are anticipating women’s basketball. They are making plans around the games. New fans are drawn in every day, hopefully to stay. I present this anecdotal evidence from one middle school where I live in Orlando. When the staff found out I was going to cover the women’s NCAA tournament, I was met with one question: Are you going to see Caitlin Clark? I have never previously had a conversation about women’s basketball with anyone at the school. The games have lived up to the hype. The buzz has been palpable. I feel like I have a front-row seat to history. So, this is a long-winded way of saying March Madness 2024 is No. 1 on my list, and it’s not even close.

Pelton: My version of that experience was getting in a rideshare Saturday morning to the Moda Center at the Portland Regional and my driver saying he was trying to find the LSU-UCLA game on the radio. The excitement about this year’s tournament has been great, and it’s been amplified by the games continuing to deliver. We typically don’t get this level of competition on a regular basis until the Final Four. To see it going all the way back to the second round is a sign of the improving depth of talent and makes this my favorite March Madness to date — including the many years where the women weren’t allowed to use that label.

Voepel: There was a lot of buzz around the 2000 Final Four because it was during the peak of the UConn-Tennessee rivalry. The event was in Philadelphia, Auriemma’s hometown. He was in his usual comedic form, talking about the two cheesesteak restaurants in Philly named “Pat’s” and “Geno’s,” suggesting the latter was a much better place. It didn’t go over well with then-Tennessee coach Summitt or Lady Vols fans, but the animosity was part of what made the rivalry great. Both rosters also had future Hall of Fame players, including Sue Bird and Swin Cash for UConn, and Tamika Catchings for Tennessee.

But it was all before social media, before NIL opportunities allowed college players opportunities to become household names through endorsements and advertising and before so many games were televised throughout the season. Obviously, the sport didn’t just spring up in the past few years. If we were having this same conversation in 2000, we would be talking about how much better things were then for women’s basketball than in the 1980s. But technology has greatly changed the visibility, how games are consumed and the volume of conversation about teams and players.

What’s the single biggest question you want answered in this Final Four?

Adelson: Will Clark complete her career with a national championship? There are plenty of big ones to be sure, including whether South Carolina will complete its undefeated run after Clark and Iowa denied the Gamecocks last season. But given all the records and accolades and highlights, what Clark wants more than anything is to hoist that trophy at the end of the season with her teammates.

But here is a second part to that question. I heard someone ask the other day whether Clark needs to validate her GOAT status with a championship. I am not in that camp, because her individual greatness stands on its own. But Clark is not in this for the record books. She’s in it to win. Can she help get her team there?

Creme: How does Clark do it and can she keep doing it? Most star athletes in college lift up their university like the way Candace Parker or A’ja Wilson did. Clark is lifting an entire sport and has created a renaissance in the process — yet hasn’t seemed to let any of it affect her, or get tired. Clark keeps smiling through the demands on her time, the daily scrutiny and the pressure to play at an extraordinary level to keep her Hawkeyes moving forward smiling. Clark is the most important player the sport has ever seen.

Philippou: Will South Carolina complete its “revenge season” and go undefeated? The Gamecocks are two wins away from becoming the 10th team and fourth college program to boast an undefeated campaign. And more than that, winning their third national title in seven tournaments would cement the Gamecocks as the sport’s contemporary dynasty.

Voepel: Can the 2023-24 Gamecocks join the ranks of perfect teams in the NCAA era? The nine undefeated NCAA champions are from four different programs: Texas, Tennessee and Baylor have done it once each; UConn has done it six times.

Caitlin Clark vs. Paige Bueckers. Who wins the individual matchup?

Adelson: Bueckers’ comeback story is terrific in its own right, and her return to greatness has been overshadowed by what Clark has done the past two years. Maybe that has been a good thing for her, as the pressure has come off and people no longer wonder on a near-daily basis whether she’s done enough to put her name alongside the list of greats who came before her. But it’s not just the way she’s playing; it’s the fire with which she’s playing. I have a feeling Auriemma will employ a far different game plan against Clark than Kim Mulkey did in the Elite Eight matchup. This matchup is going to be one for ages, but ultimately, it’s been incredibly difficult to stop Clark. As Mulkey said, nobody has done it. So I still give Clark the edge because of not only where she can make her shots from, but because of the way she has gotten her teammates involved when the defense collapses on her.

Creme: For all that Clark has done for the sport, Iowa’s run could end on Friday night with Bueckers being the better player — and that is part of what makes this tournament and this Final Four so incredible. If not for Clark and all the records she has set along the way, the top story of this Final Four would be what Bueckers has done to get this depleted group of Huskies to a 15th Final Four in 16 tournaments. If Geno Auriemma is astonished by it, the rest of us should be too. If UConn had another piece or two to go with Bueckers, Aaliyah Edwards and Nika Muhl, I might lean the Huskies’ way. But they are too shorthanded and Clark is just too good.

Philippou: It depends how you define “winning” the individual matchup. When these two players last faced off in 2021, Clark was limited to 21 points on 7-for-21 shooting. Bueckers similarly only made seven shots from the field (on 18 attempts). Both made their impact in other ways (Bueckers with 9 rebounds, 8 assists; Clark with 3 and 5).

Is it possible that Clark outscores Bueckers? Sure. Maybe even likely, given her role on the team. But the broader success of an individual performance will also be defined by how each player impacts the game in other ways — for example, Clark with her facilitating, Bueckers with her defense — not to mention the timing that comes with making winning plays. And if the stars end up neutralizing each other, the game might go down to which supporting cast plays better.

Voepel: For all the talk about the Huskies being “depleted” — yes, they have dealt with a lot of injuries the past few years — most coaches nationwide would love to have this team. Bueckers was the No. 1 overall recruit in 2020, while Aaliyah Edwards was rated 23rd that year. KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade were both in the top 15 for the Class of 2023. Reserve Ice Brady was No. 5 in the Class of 2022.

The Huskies live in a high-pressure bubble where their fans think “adversity” is missing last year’s Final Four after making it that far for the previous 14 tournaments. The standard there has been sky high for nearly 30 years.

What does that have to do with the Bueckers-Clark matchup? For the most part, Iowa has not swam in the same recruiting waters as UConn. But in the case of the Class of 2000, the Hawkeyes did by getting Clark. So it wouldn’t be any surprise to see the two of them both have great games; in fact, I expect it. This will be more about the supporting cast. Iowa doesn’t have the same amount of high school blue-chippers as UConn, but the Hawkeyes’ core has been an exceptional complement to Clark the past two seasons in particular. And the so-called “depleted” Huskies are still a major powerhouse.

What will have the biggest impact on which team wins the title: star individual performances in Cleveland or total team efforts?

Adelson: Total team effort, but that also includes standout individual performances. Clark had 41 against LSU, but she also assisted on 26 other points. She had 15 assists in the Sweet 16 game against Colorado and 10 in the tournament opener against Holy Cross. All of that is to say that her individual performances have been great, but her teammates have gotten involved, too, and that is one thing coach Lisa Bluder has discussed repeatedly about this tournament run. South Carolina isn’t going to be able to win with Kamilla Cardoso alone; same goes for UConn and Bueckers.

NC State is the one team that doesn’t necessarily have a “star” in the same sense — all five of its starters average more than 10 points per game. Aziaha James has been spectacular in the NCAA tournament, but Saniya Rivers, River Baldwin, Madison Hayes and Mimi Collins have all taken turns leading the team in scoring. It truly has taken an entire team effort for the Wolfpack to make it this far, and it will once again in the Final Four against South Carolina.

Creme: As Andrea said, Clark’s brilliance doesn’t mean Iowa isn’t producing a team effort. Someone must finish those assists. Clark doesn’t rebound and defend alone. But South Carolina has defined total team effort this season. The Gamecocks have had four different leading scorers in four NCAA tournament games, and eight players score at least eight points per game. It took a 47-point game from Hannah Stuelke for someone other than Clark to lead Iowa in scoring. NC State has been a balanced team offensively, but the Wolfpack don’t even have eight players averaging eight minutes per game, let alone points. South Carolina’s version of team effort will have the greatest impact on the weekend.

Voepel: It depends which team we’re talking about. As good as their supporting casts are, Iowa and UConn aren’t likely to win the championship without Clark or Bueckers being the superstars they are.

However, South Carolina can win games with the sheer volume of talent the Gamecocks can rotate on the floor. That doesn’t mean one of the Gamecocks might not rise above the rest, but nobody actually has to do that for them to win the championship.

NC State is, perhaps, somewhere in between. The Wolfpack wouldn’t have advanced out of Region 4 in Portland without James’ scoring prowess. But NC State is still probably more a case of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

Which two teams advance to Sunday’s title game?

Adelson: South Carolina and Iowa
Barnes: South Carolina and Iowa
Creme: South Carolina and Iowa
Hurd: South Carolina and UConn
Pelton: South Carolina and Iowa
Philippou: South Carolina and Iowa
Voepel: South Carolina and Iowa

Which team wins the NCAA championship?

Adelson: Iowa. I picked South Carolina before the tournament started, but I changed my mind after watching both South Carolina and Iowa in Albany. Their tournaments have almost gone in reverse: South Carolina dominant in the first two rounds; shaky in the past two. Iowa was shaky in the first two; dominant in the past two. Iowa won this matchup last year, so there will be no intimidation factor. You could say, “Well, Iowa just won its rematch against LSU, therefore that puts South Carolina in great shape to win a potential rematch.” That’s a fair point. It just feels as though Iowa is a team that won’t be denied right now.

Barnes: After going back and forth, I think South Carolina gets it done. The team is young, but Staley has spread the minutes over the team all season, leading to everyone accumulating meaningful minutes up and down the bench. Even though Clark will be the best player on the floor, and I’m inclined to pick Iowa because of that, she will have to face a barrage of South Carolina defenders on the perimeter and inside. At the end of the day, one or two stops might make the difference. South Carolina gets the edge for me on that.

Creme: South Carolina. For all of the greatness of Clark and Bueckers, South Carolina is still the best team. If Summitt was right and rebounding wins championships, this should be the Gamecocks’ to lose. None of the other three teams is close to South Carolina’s level on the glass, and the Gamecocks can do it in waves of depth. Iowa, NC State and UConn have no margin for error because of thin personnel. Staley has options all over the floor. Those are the reasons South Carolina wins its third championship.

Hurd: South Carolina, due to depth. South Carolina has the deepest and highest-producing bench in the country. The Gamecocks have logged the fewest individual minutes of any team remaining in the tournament. It is, in part, what makes outlasting them in a 40-minute contest so difficult. As noted above, that depth also relieves pressure off of any one player needing to have a monster game in a high-pressure environment like the national championship. Any combination of Gamecocks players could lead the team in any given game. It’s been South Carolina’s calling card all season.

Pelton: South Carolina. The last month has made it clear the Gamecocks are unbeaten but beatable. Still, this has been the best team all season and is a heavy favorite Friday. We can revisit that when the final is set, but South Carolina is easily the most likely team to get there and therefore to win it.

Philippou: South Carolina. Raven Johnson and the rest of the Gamecocks aren’t going to drop their rematch against the team that spoiled their undefeated season and national championship run last year.

Trotter: South Carolina. The Hawkeyes have the best player in Clark. But the Gamecocks have the best team. Clark would have to deliver another otherworldly performance. She’s obviously capable of just that. But in the end, South Carolina will prove to be too much.

Voepel: Iowa. Going by the logic that I was sure LSU, with its greater rebounding prowess, would defeat Iowa in the regional final. But the Hawkeyes still won. I’m equally sure now that South Carolina will clobber the Hawkeyes on the boards. Yet somehow, as was the case against LSU, Iowa is still going to pull it off.