Roundtable: How to bet the men's Final Four games
The men’s NCAA tournament continues Saturday with two Final Four games as No. 1 Purdue takes on No. 11 NC State followed by No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 Alabama.
How should you bet these games? And which futures bets are worth considering?
Here are experts Jeff Borzello, Tyler Fulghum and Mackenzie Kraemer with their favorite bets to make.
Game bets
Braden Smith OVER 6.5 assists (-140). If Zach Edey is the engine of this Purdue offense, then Smith is the man driving the car. He’s doled out 38 assists in this tournament for an average of 9.5 per game. He’s cleared this threshold in three of the four games with a high-water mark of 15. — Fulghum
DJ Burns Jr. under 14.5 points (-120). Burns’ number is inflated due to his tournament success, but he hasn’t faced Edey. Edey draws the most fouls in the country per 40 minutes, and Burns will have a tough time staying on the floor, much less scoring. — Kraemer
NC State/Purdue UNDER 146.5 (-110). In order to stay in the game — as it has done all NCAA tournament — NC State will likely look to limit possessions and play almost exclusively through Burns. The Wolfpack have gone under in all three games this tournament as underdogs and I think that trend will continue. — Borzello
UConn -11.5 vs. Alabama (-115). I see no reason to stop betting on UConn. This, of course, is a lot of points to lay in a Final Four game against a very good (offensive) team and great head coach, but UConn has blitzed every team it has faced in this tournament. The Huskies are 4-0 ATS and their cover margin in these games — where they’re laying huge numbers — is +12.5. — Fulghum
UConn team total OVER 86.5 (-110). This is a very high number, but against an Alabama team that plays little defense and plays at the 10th-fastest pace in the country, it’s justified. Alabama has allowed 10 of its past 14 opponents to reach this number, and none of those offenses are as good as UConn. — Kraemer
Alabama/UConn OVER 160.5 (-110). After playing the No. 2 offense in the country last weekend, UConn now faces the No. 3 offense in the country. The game against Illinois surprisingly went under, but I don’t think that will happen again. Alabama’s pace will play right into UConn’s hands and the points will follow. — Borzello
Futures bets
Zach Edey to win Most Outstanding Player (+210). This is the same price as Purdue to win the title, but I think there is a non-zero chance Edey can win even in a losing effort. It hasn’t happened since 1983, but nobody has averaged 30 points and 15 rebounds entering the Final Four since 1968. ESPN Analytics views Purdue as undervalued entering the Final Four, so Edey could have multiple paths to win. — Kraemer
Mark Sears to win Most Outstanding Player (+2500). If you believe that Alabama can knock off UConn (I personally don’t see it happening, but there are some of you out there who do), then Sears is offering great value. Alabama is currently +1700 to win the tournament. Sears, who is easily their most statistically impressive player, is most likely to be the reason they pull off the unthinkable. So IF you think Alabama has a shot, then this — to me — is the best way to bet them. — Fulghum
Alex Karaban to win Most Outstanding Player (+6000). It’s a longshot bet, the biggest longshot (by far) among UConn players. But I think there’s some value there, since Karaban would be my pick to be the difference-maker against Alabama. He excels at finding space for transition 3s, which should come in abundance against the Crimson Tide. Karaban has come up big in some of UConn’s biggest wins this season (20 points vs. Texas, 18 points vs. UNC, 23 points vs. Marquette) and he broke out of his minislump in the second half against Illinois. — Borzello
