2024 NBA playoffs: What's at stake on the season's final day
The 2024 NBA regular season wraps up Sunday, but there is still plenty to decide before all eyes turn toward the postseason.
The Boston Celtics are the top overall seed and guaranteed home-court advantage throughout the postseason, but things are far from settled among the other teams in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed is still up in the air, with three teams — the Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Denver Nuggets — tied and still in contention. It’s the first time three teams have been tied for the best record in their conference through 81 games.
Once the dust settles, the top six teams from each conference will be assured playoff spots, while team Nos. 7-10 in the standings will enter the play-in tournament (April 16-19).
Two teams in each conference will then emerge to fill out the eight-team field, with the first round of the playoffs starting April 20.
Get the updates ahead of the playoffs here as the road to the NBA Finals kicks into full gear.
JUMP TO: East teams | West teams
What’s at stake on a wild final day
NEW YORK — With one day of games left in the regular season, nearly nothing is set in the NBA’s playoff picture.
All 30 NBA teams will play Sunday, and only five of the 20 postseason seeds are locked in: the first, ninth and tenth spots in the East (the Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks, respectively) and the Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the West (LA Clippers and Dallas Mavericks.
Sunday will determine the other 15 seeds, with three direct playoff spots (top six in each conference) still on the line. Here is a guide to all of Sunday’s matchups, including all of the relevant and likely tiebreaker scenarios to play out, and the most likely matchups in both conferences:
Eastern Conference
Friday night demonstrated the foolishness of planning for expected victories when the defending champion Denver Nuggets were stunned by the San Antonio Spurs.
Still, if we assume the five playoff teams playing opponents with nothing to play for Sunday — the New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat — are going to win their respective season finales, that leaves only one East game that could truly go either way. The result of the Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic game could cause some radical swings in the East playoff picture.
If the above five teams and Milwaukee all win Sunday, here’s what the playoff bracket would look like:
No. 1: Boston
No. 2: Milwaukee
No. 3: New York
No. 4: Cleveland
No. 5: Indiana
No. 6: Philadelphia
No. 7: Miami
No. 8: Orlando
No. 9: Chicago
No. 10: Atlanta
In this scenario, Milwaukee and New York would be tied with 50 wins, with Milwaukee wining the head-to-head tiebreaker. Indiana and Philadelphia would be tied at 47 wins, with Indiana winning the head-to-head tiebreaker. Miami and Orlando, meanwhile, would be tied at 46 wins, with Miami winning the head-to-head tiebreaker and the Southeast Division along with it, giving the Heat home-court advantage for the East’s 7-8 play-in game against the Magic on Tuesday.
This scenario would work out pretty nicely for the league-leading Celtics, as all of its biggest-name rivals to escape the East — Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia and Miami — would be projected to wind up on the opposite side of the bracket.
However, if Orlando is able to snap its three-game losing skid and beat Milwaukee on Sunday (again, assuming the other five games go as expected), here’s how things will look:
No. 1: Boston
No. 2: New York
No. 3: Cleveland
No. 4: Milwaukee
No. 5: Orlando
No. 6: Indiana
No. 7: Philadelphia
No. 8: Miami
No. 9: Chicago
No. 10: Atlanta
Cleveland and Milwaukee would wind up tied at 49 wins, but the Cavaliers would clinch the third seed, and the Central Division title, by virtue of having a better division record than Milwaukee.
The real drama, however, would be in the three-way tie between Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia at 47 wins. Normally, this tie would be broken by the head-to-head record between the three teams. In that scenario, Philadelphia would be 4-2, Indiana would be 3-3 and Orlando would be 2-4, meaning the 76ers would finish fifth, the Pacers sixth and the Magic seventh.
So why, then, is Orlando fifth in this scenario? Because while the NBA has made divisions irrelevant in most respects, the first tiebreaker for a three-team tie in which one of the teams is a division winner is that status. Because Orlando, in this scenario, would be the Southeast Division winner, the Magic would finish fifth instead of seventh. (In one incredibly unlikely scenario, if Orlando, Philadelphia and Indiana all lose, and Miami wins, all four teams would be tied at 46 wins and Miami would be the fifth seed, followed by Philadelphia, Indiana and Orlando).
In both of these scenarios, the Knicks and 76ers are overwhelmingly likely to face each other in the first round, as are the Cavaliers and Pacers. However, if the Magic win, Boston would go from possibly only having to beat one of Milwaukee, New York, Philadelphia and Miami to reach the NBA Finals to potentially having to beat three of them.
Western Conference
Unlike the East, there’s a lot more chaos potential out West because of several of these teams playing against each other.
The race for the top seed
The NBA said Saturday that there has never been the same scenario as the one that exists this year: the Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves all entering Sunday with identical records, and all having a shot at the top spot in the standings.
Amazingly, no team controls its own destiny.
The Thunder face the Mavericks in a game in which Dallas has nothing to play for and is likely to rest players. If the Thunder win and Denver beats Memphis — which should happen, but it could become an interesting game if Denver chooses to rest players — Oklahoma City will clinch the No. 1 seed. If Denver loses and Minnesota wins its game against the Phoenix Suns, Minnesota has the head-to-head tiebreak with OKC, and therefore it would be Minnesota-Oklahoma City-Denver atop the West.
If all three teams win, it will be Oklahoma City-Minnesota-Denver.
The race to avoid the play-in
This one is very simple. The New Orleans Pelicans currently sit one win ahead of Phoenix, but the Suns control the tiebreaker. So, if New Orleans wins at home against the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, or if the Suns lose in Minnesota, the Pelicans will be the sixth seed.
If, however, New Orleans loses AND Phoenix wins, the Suns will be the sixth seed, and New Orleans will go into the play-in. Neither team can finish lower than seventh.
The race to avoid the 9-10 game
The Lakers are in the same position as their opponent Sunday. If Los Angeles can beat New Orleans, it will be the eighth seed, and will either remain in New Orleans to play the Pelicans again Tuesday, or will fly to Phoenix to play the Suns.
If the Lakers lose, however, the door opens for the Sacramento Kings, who will be a heavy favorite against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday and would become the eighth seed with a win. The Lakers losing also would make them heading to San Francisco to play the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday the most likely scenario, as the Warriors are playing the Utah Jazz on Sunday in another game they should win.
Golden State can finish eighth, but it would need both the Lakers and Kings to lose.
— Tim Bontemps
Eastern Conference projected bracket, as of today:
Play-in tournament:
No. 8 Heat at No. 7 76ers (April 16)
No. 10 Hawks at No. 9 Bulls (April 17)
Winner 9/10 at loser 7/8 (April 19)
First round:
No. 1 Celtics vs. No. 8 seed (76ers/Heat/Bulls/Hawks)
No. 2 Bucks vs. No. 7 seed (76ers/Heat)
No. 3 Knicks vs. No. 6 Pacers
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Magic
Western Conference projected bracket, as of today:
Play-in tournament:
No. 8 Los Angeles Lakers at No. 7 Phoenix Suns (April 16)
No. 10 Golden State Warriors at No. 9 Sacramento Kings (April 17)
Winner 9/10 at loser 7/8 (April 19)
First round:
No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 8 seed (Suns/Lakers/Kings/Warriors)
No. 2 Timberwolves vs. No. 7 seed (Suns/Lakers)
No. 3 Nuggets vs. No. 6 Pelicans
No. 4 Clippers vs. No. 5 Mavericks
East postseason picture
Playoff spot and specific seed: Boston Celtics (No. 1 seed)
Playoff spot, seed still to be determined: Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers
At least a play-in spot, not yet playoffs: Orlando Magic, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat
Only a play-in spot: Chicago Bulls (No. 9 seed), Atlanta Hawks (No. 10 seed)
Eliminated: Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons
Complete Eastern Conference Playoff and Play-In scenarios for tomorrow’s games ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/zGDZlqLTrU
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 13, 2024
Playoff/clinching scenarios for teams in the East:
For the No. 2 seed: Milwaukee will be the second seed if it beats Orlando; New York will be second if it beats Chicago and Orlando beats Milwaukee; Cleveland will be second if it beats Charlotte and both New York and Milwaukee lose.
For the No. 3 seed: New York will be the third seed if the Bucks and Knicks both win. Milwaukee will be the third seed if the Knicks win and the Bucks and Cavaliers lose. Cleveland will be the third seed if the Cavaliers win, the Knicks win and the Bucks lose.
For the No. 4 seed: Cleveland will be the fourth seed if it loses or the Cavaliers, Bucks and Knicks all win. Milwaukee will be fourth if New York and Cleveland win and the Bucks lose. New York will be fourth if the Knicks and Bucks lose and the Cavaliers win.
For the No. 5 seed: Orlando will finish fifth if it wins against Milwaukee, by virtue of winning the Southeast Division. Indiana will finish fifth if it wins against Atlanta and Orlando loses. Philadelphia will finish fifth if it wins and Indiana and Orlando both lose.
For the No. 6 seed: Indiana will finish sixth if it wins and Orlando wins. Philadelphia will finish sixth if it wins and Indiana or Orlando loses.
For the No. 7 seed: Philadelphia will finish seventh if it wins and Orlando and Indiana both win. Miami will finish seventh if the Heat win against the Toronto Raptors, the 76ers and Pacers win and the Magic lose.
For the No. 8 seed: Miami will finish eighth if it loses or the Heat, Magic, 76ers and Pacers all win.
West postseason picture
Playoff spot, seed still to be determined: Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets
Playoff spot and specific seed: LA Clippers (No. 4 seed), Dallas Mavericks (No. 5 seed)
At least a play-in spot, not yet playoffs: New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns
Only a play-in spot: Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers
Eliminated: Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
Complete Western Conference Playoff and Play-In scenarios for tomorrow’s games ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/WQ1nLxuiIh
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 13, 2024
Playoff/clinching scenarios for teams in the West:
For the No. 1/No. 2/No. 3 seeds:
– If Oklahoma City and Minnesota win and Denver loses: Wolves are No. 1, Thunder are No. 2, Nuggets are No. 3
– If Oklahoma City and Denver win and Minnesota loses: Thunder are No. 1, Nuggets are No. 2, Wolves are No. 3
– If Denver and Minnesota win and Oklahoma City loses: Wolves are No. 1, Nuggets are No. 2, Thunder are No. 3
For the No. 6/No. 7 seeds:
– If New Orleans wins: Pelicans are No. 6, Suns are No. 7 (into play-in)
– If Phoenix wins and New Orleans loses: Suns are No. 6, Pelicans are No. 7 (into play-in)
– If New Orleans and Phoenix lose: Pelicans are No. 6, Phoenix are No. 7 (into play-in)
For the No. 8 seed: The Lakers will remain eighth if they beat the Pelicans; the Kings can clinch if they beat the Trail Blazers and the Lakers lose; the Warriors can clinch if they beat the Jazz, and both the Lakers and Kings lose.
For the No. 9 seed: The Kings will remain ninth if they win; the Lakers will drop here if they lose, and either the Kings or Warriors win; the Warriors can clinch if they win, and if either the Lakers or Warriors lose.
For the No. 10 seed: The Warriors will remain 10th if both the Lakers and Kings win; the Lakers will drop here if they lose, and both the Kings and Warriors win; the Kings will drop here if they lose, and the Warriors win.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
What they’ve clinched: Best overall record, No. 1 seed in Eastern Conference, Atlantic Division title
Boston became the first team to clinch a postseason spot in 2024 and have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. And as holders of the overall best record, they’re guaranteed home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Celtics have made the playoffs the previous nine seasons, losing to the Miami Heat in the conference finals last season. The last time they were the top overall seed in the East was after the 2016-17 season, when they lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the conference finals.
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The Bucks have locked up a Eastern Conference playoffs as they try to now lock up a top-four seed.
Milwaukee has made the playoffs the previous seven seasons. The Bucks were the top seed last year but suffered a first-round exit at the hands of the Miami Heat. In 2022, they were also the top seed in the East, but they lost to the Boston Celtics in the conference finals.
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The Knicks have secured a place in the Eastern Conference playoffs as they aim to secure a top-four spot.
The Knicks advanced the conference semifinals last season, where they lost to the Miami Heat. It marked just the second playoff appearance for New York in the past 10 seasons, which included a seven-year stretch without postseason play.
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The Cavs are also into the postseason with a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
Cleveland made the playoffs last season, losing in the first round to the New York Knicks. It marked the Cavs’ return to the postseason after missing the previous four editions, and their first appearance since winning the 2016-17 NBA Finals, led by LeBron James.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The Magic will play past the regular season for the first time since 2020, clinching at least a place in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Orlando will next eye a playoff berth, having only appeared twice since the 2012-13 season. The team last advanced past the first round in 2010 when it reached the conference finals.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The Pacers have qualified for at least the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference
Indy is back in the postseason for the first time since 2020, breaking a three-season stretch. Prior to that, the team was bounced in the first round of the playoffs in five consecutive seasons.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The 76ers have qualified for at least the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference.
Philadelphia has made the playoffs each of the previous six seasons, but has not advanced beyond the second round since reaching the NBA Finals in 2001.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The Heat have qualified for at least the play-in tournament in the Eastern Conference.
Last season, Miami became the first team to reach the NBA Finals as a play-in team. After losing first to the Atlanta Hawks, they secured the No. 8 seed by beating the Chicago Bulls. The Heat then beat the Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, and the Boston Celtics to win the East before losing in the finals to the Denver Nuggets.
What they’ve clinched: No. 9 seed for the play-in tournament; cannot directly clinch a playoff berth
The Bulls will be playing in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament and will host the Atlanta Hawks for the 9/10 game. The winner will advance to play the loser of the 7/8 game for a chance to clinch the last playoff spot.
This is the second straight season that the Bulls will be in the play-in tournament. Last year, they beat the Toronto Raptors in the elimination match before losing to the Miami Heat in No. 8 seed game.
What they’ve clinched: No. 10 seed for the play-in tournament; cannot directly clinch a playoff berth
The Hawks will be playing in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament and will visit the Chicago Bulls for the 9/10 game. The winner will advance to play the loser of the 7/8 game for a chance to clinch the last playoff spot.
This is the third straight season that the Hawks will be in the play-in tournament. They’ve advanced out of it but then been bounced in the first round of the playoffs — by the Miami Heat in 2022 and by the Boston Celtics in 2023. In 2021, they lost to the Milwaukee Bucks to the conference finals.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The Thunder remain in contention for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, but they’ve at least clinched a playoff spot.
The team has not been in the playoffs since the 2019-20 season — a three-season hiatus — after previously missing the postseason just twice since moving to OKC in 2008.
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The Timberwolves have locked in a spot in the Western Conference playoffs as they remain in a tough battle for the No. 1 seed.
Minnesota has advanced from the play-in tournament the last two seasons, only to bow out in the first round of the playoffs. Last year, it was to the eventual champions Denver Nuggets.
What they’ve clinched: At least a playoff spot
The defending NBA Finals champions have clinched a playoff spot amid a tight race for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.
The Nuggets will be making their sixth straight appearance in the playoffs — capped by last season’s run that saw them beat the Miami Heat for the franchise’s first ever NBA Finals trophy.
What they’ve clinched: No. 4 seed in the Western Conference; Pacific Division title
The Clippers have clinched the fourth seed in the Western Conference and will host the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the playoffs.
The team was bounced from the first round of the playoffs last season by the Phoenix Suns. The year before, they finished ninth in the West but lost the elimination match to the New Orleans Pelicans.
What they’ve clinched: No. 5 seed in the Western Conference; Southwest Division
The Mavericks will return to the postseason, having booked the fifth seed in the playoffs in the Western Conference. They’ll face the LA Clippers in the first round.
Dallas missed out altogether last year after having previously made the playoffs in three straight seasons, which included two eliminations by the Clippers.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The Pelicans have clinched a play-in tournament spot in the Western Conference, although they can still nab a playoff berth.
Last season, New Orleans lost the 9-10 elimination match in the play-in tournament to Oklahoma City. The year prior, they made the playoffs via the play-in, but lost in the first round to the Phoenix Suns.
What they’ve clinched: At least a play-in spot
The Suns have clinched at least a spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament to continue their streak of postseason appearances.
Phoenix has reached the conference semifinals the last two seasons, but lost to the Denver Nuggets (2023) and the Dallas Mavericks (2022). In 2021, they reached the NBA Finals but fell to the Milwaukee Bucks.
What they’ve clinched: A play-in spot; cannot clinch a playoff berth
The Lakers’ path to the playoffs will have to go through the Western Conference play-in tournament as they can no longer finish in the top six.
LeBron James and crew made it to the conference finals last season before being swept by eventual NBA Finals champions Denver Nuggets.
What they’ve clinched: A play-in spot; cannot clinch a playoff berth
After having been in the mix for a playoff spot for most of the season, the Kings will now have to settle for a spot in the play-in tournament in the Western Conference.
Sacramento made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2006, but lost to the Golden State Warriors in the first round.
What they’ve clinched: A play-in spot; cannot clinch a playoff berth
No shot for a top six spot for the Warriors, who will have to first navigate the Western Conference play-in tournament.
Last season, Golden State reached the conference semifinals before losing to the Lakers. In 2022, the Warriors won the NBA Finals over the Boston Celtics. In 2021, they finished eighth in the standings but lost two straight play-in games (to the Lakers and the Memphis Grizzlies) to end that season.
