Waiver wire: Top picks for steals and speed

If you’re a rotisserie baseball manager with a need for speed, today’s column speaks directly to you. Among this week’s top pickups are a pair of widely available speedsters and there’s another recommendation for those of you in deeper leagues further down.

Yes, yes, points-league and sabermetric managers will immediately retort, “But speedsters don’t typically matter in my league!” While usually true — the single point that a stolen base earns in most standard games (including ours) can’t make up for the treasure trove of stats that a power hitter can accrue — both of these speedsters have the potential to contribute to fantasy teams universally.

Amed Rosario, SS/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays (31.0% rostered): He has been a frustrating player for rotisserie managers specifically throughout his career, annually generating gaudy raw speed metrics — Statcast has graded him in at least the 90th percentile in every one of his eight MLB seasons — but never showing the aggression (and often not the success rate) needed to pile up steals. Rosario’s career best in the category was 24, set in 2018 as a 22-year-old, and in his best two seasons (2018-19), he was successful on only 67.2% of his attempts.

Well, Rosario successfully stole two bases during the Rays’ weekend series against the New York Yankees — a dream matchup for speedsters (the Forecaster grades the Yankees as the easiest team against which to steal). It’s a signal that the team could continue to seek advantageous opportunities for him to run. Perhaps more importantly, he hit safely in his 11th consecutive game, thanks in part to his career-best contact (86.5) and whiff rates (17.1%). Additionally, Statcast says he has made hard contact more than half of the time (51.1%).

All this has seemingly secured him a regular role, split between second base and right field. It’s one that could soon be threatened by Josh Lowe‘s impending return, although second base does still appear to be a prospective full-time home for Rosario.

Esteury Ruiz, OF, Oakland Athletics (19.6%): One of baseball’s most ludicrous early-season demotions — feel free to debate his versus Max Meyer‘s — Ruiz demonstrated how silly his April 1 assignment to Triple-A Las Vegas was by batting .326/.423/.581 with three home runs and seven stolen bases in 11 games there, forcing his way back onto the big league roster last Monday. Although he has earned only a pair of starts in center field since, painting the picture of a weak-side platoon mate, Ruiz’s improved pop is making him a tough player not to grant regular at-bats.

Ruiz already has five home runs in 70 trips to the plate between the majors and minors and Statcast has him with a 60.0% hard-hit rate in the majors and 32.4% while with Las Vegas (the latter number, while modest, is still 12% higher than his 2023 big-league rate). This isn’t to say that home runs is why you want to scoop Ruiz up anywhere you can find him, but it helps for those of us in points-based leagues, who need some capability with the bat.

Naturally, Ruiz is a guy you want in rotisserie leagues due to his blazing speed. He’s one of the few players around capable of 60-plus steals from this point forward.

A friendly reminder that last week’s recommendations still stand

Although Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser (60.3%, +30.0% over the past week) and new Texas Rangers closer Kirby Yates (18.6%, +17.0%) both ranked among the most popular pickups since this column last ran, each remains available in a large percentage of ESPN leagues and belongs again in today’s discussion.

How are they not universally rostered?

Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs (64.8%): Perhaps the best beneath-the-radar trade acquisition of the winter, coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers along with Yency Almonte in exchange for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope (neither of whom earned greater than a 45 Future Value grade in Kiley McDaniel’s preseason prospect rankings), Busch has thrived as a result of his new, regular opportunity. He tied the Cubs’ franchise record with a home run in five consecutive games, he has a better Statcast Barrel rate than all but seven major leaguers and he’s sixth among batting title-eligibles in expected wOBA, all of which helped him move up into the cleanup spot for the team’s past two weekend games.

To put Busch’s MLB exploits thus far into perspective, between this and last season he has 48.4% hard-hit, 10.7% walk and 25.9% chase rates. Among hitters with at least as many as his 159 plate appearances, those place in the 90th, 79th and 67th percentiles.

Reynaldo Lopez, RP/SP, Atlanta Braves (45.8%): His was the spring training experiment that few believed would stick, with the Braves pronouncing they would stretch Lopez out as a starter after signing him to a three-year, $30 million contract in November. After all, everyone regarded Atlanta as being well-stocked in the rotation with his skill set most suited to helping them in short relief. An exceptional spring training (2.16 ERA, .179 BAA in five appearances), however, earned him the team’s fifth-starter role, from which he has delivered three consecutive quality starts.

More to the point, Lopez’s stuff has played up brilliantly to a starter’s role, his four-seam fastball averaging 95.2 mph — well within range of where it was during his 2018-20 stint in the White Sox rotation. Meanwhile, his slider and curveball have maintained better-than-35% whiff rates (after he was typically around 25% with the curveball in 2018-20). The Braves need that level of contribution with Spencer Strider out for the season and, while Lopez’s workload might come into question around midsummer, he needs to be in fantasy baseball lineups for every single turn for the time being.

Deeper league pickup

Jesse Winker, OF, Washington Nationals (15.3%): A massive disappointment across the lion’s share of his first seven MLB seasons, Winker seems to be making the most of his supremely disciplined skill set while given a regular opportunity by the rebuilding Nationals. He has slotted in as the team’s No. 2 or 3 hitter in 14 of their 21 games, and has reached base at least twice via either hit, walk or hit by pitch in 10 of his 20 games played.

That’s the kind of skill set perfect for both points-based and sabermetric fantasy scoring and, despite the looming arrival of top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews, the Nationals should still want to find a place for a hitter performing like this, especially when other stopgaps like Joey Gallo and Eddie Rosario aren’t giving the team much of anything.

Feel free to cut: Connor Joe (33.1% rostered), Michael Conforto (48.9%), Abner Uribe (11.6%), Hunter Brown (52.1%)