Risers and fallers include Karlie Samuelson, Diamond Miller
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Liz Loza, ESPN
The only constant in sports (and life) is change. While consistency is key to a winning strategy, the ebb and flow of production often can’t be avoided.
Tracking the endless ups and downs over 40 games and nearly four months can become a heady operation. Segmenting the journey, however, into weekly updates allows managers to live (and play) in the now.
That’s exactly what my Risers and Fallers column aims to accomplish, as we utilize ESPN’s metrics database for a deeper look at the numbers.
Risers
DiJonai Carrington, G, Connecticut Sun (58.6% rostered, +52.6)
The Sun have been on a hot streak and so has Carrington. Any questions about the team’s guard rotation appear to have been answered, primarily by the 26-year-old’s solid play. Carrington has now recorded the same number of starts in 2024 than she had during her previous three seasons in the league. Averaging over 34 minutes per outing, Carrington remains a focal point of Connecticut’s offense, managing the second-most field goal attempts (46) on the squad.
The Baylor (by way of Stanford) grad held her own against Caitlin Clark and company on Monday night. Her efficiency from the floor dipped (38.5%), but she continued to post double-digit points and show off her defensive prowess, collecting at least 4 boards for three straight efforts. As a result, Carrington’s fantasy stock has soared, gifting fantasy investors with an average over 28 fantasy points per game. Still available in over 40% of leagues, Carrington looks to be this season’s most coveted waiver wire add… and an early frontrunner for the W’s Most Improved Player Award.
Karlie Samuelson, F, Washington Mystics (51.1% rostered, +28.9)
Frome one late bloomer to another, this ascent feels fantastic. Samuelson posted a career campaign, after carving out a starting role for herself in Los Angeles last year. Hopes were high that she would carry that momentum (which has been mounting since the Stanford product entered the league in 2018) as a member of the Mystics this season. It’s only been three games but the 29-year-old has been slaying, establishing herself as a versatile team leader.
Second in playing time and production to only Ariel Atkins, Samuelson has averaged 29.3 minutes, 12.7 points and 1.7 steals per game. While her first outing of 2024 fell a bit flat, she rebounded brilliantly, registering 31 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals over her last two contests. Unsurprisingly, Samuelson has worked from downtown, sinking at least three 3s in back-to-back efforts (and recording just one less 3PM than league leader, Caitlin Clark). Currently a top-25 fantasy producer, Samuelson’s success figures to keep her on the court and in fantasy lineups.
Fallers
Diamond Miller, G, Minnesota Lynx (69.1% rostered, -14.7)
Miller posted a streaky effort as a starter over her first pro campaign in 2023. Still, the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s WNBA draft finished as a top-45 fantasy producer, averaging nearly 22 FPPG per game. Demonstrating considerable upside it was believed that the 23-year-old would continue along a positive trajectory, growing into a more consistent player. That may still be the case. Currently, however, it seems as though HC Cheryl Reeve is intent on managing Miller’s workload, likely due to a knee surgery that the Maryland product underwent in late November.
Miller has yet to record double-digit points, managing no more than 15 minutes on the court since the season tipped off. While her production has increased incrementally, it appears as though she’s being eased back into the fold. Consequently, Natisha Hiedeman‘s (17.8% rostered) reps off the bench (and fantasy potential) have (momentarily) expanded. Miller’s opportunities figure to stabilize eventually, but she’s best kept out of starting lineups until considerable progress is made. The Lynx will play the team’s third game of the season at Connecticut on Thursday.
Sug Sutton, G, Phoenix Mercury (27.3% rostered, -7.7)
Sutton emerged as one of the league’s best feel-good stories last season. The 25-year-old impressed off the bench in her first year with the Mercury, logging double-digit points and at least six dimes in four of the team’s last six efforts of 2023. Upon signing an extension with Phoenix, there was optimism that Sutton’s fantasy stock would further flourish. However, the additions of Natasha Cloud, Kahleah Copper and Rebecca Allen have all negatively impacted Sutton’s playing time.
Sutton averaged 8.2 points, 2.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists in her 26.3 minutes per game last year. Those numbers have been largely halved this go around, however. There is a solid chance that Sutton’s minutes could climb back up if HC Nate Tibbetts decided to spell Diana Taurasi, but for now the Texas product offers no more than stash appeal for fantasy purposes. The Mercury travel (back) to Vegas on Tuesday night for a rematch of the season opener.
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