An early look at Joshua vs. Dubois, and how the fight can play out

In a post on social media Tuesday, undisputed heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk described vacating the IBF title as “my present to you [Anthony Joshua and Daniel Dubois] on Sept. 21.” But that will be the only gift on offer for Joshua when he fights Dubois for the IBF title at Wembley Stadium in London, attempting to become a three-time world champion.

Joshua versus Dubois is probably the biggest fight in the U.K. this year — both are from London — with the added sideshow of rival promoters Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren working together again. Warren recently trounced Hearn in the best of five bouts in a unique matchup between their stables of fighters (5-0). Hearn promotes Joshua, while Warren promotes Dubois, and the buildup promises to be lively.

Joshua (28-3, 25 KOs) has revived his career since he lost back-to-back decisions to Usyk in 2021 and 2022. After stoppage wins over Robert Helenius and Otto Wallin, and then a savage two-round KO of former UFC champion Francis Ngannou in October, Joshua looks more ruthless than any other heavyweight right now. Usyk was a worthy winner over Tyson Fury to become undisputed champion by split decision back in May but he has not shown the same firepower as Joshua in recent fights.

That is why this fight is so important for Joshua if he wants to earn a potential fight for all the belts against the winner of the Usyk-Fury rematch, scheduled for Dec. 21 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Joshua will likely start as the favorite when he faces Dubois — who on Wednesday was elevated from interim champion to full champion by the IBF — but it is a potentially treacherous assignment for Joshua if he adopts a safety-first approach, which he has done in the past. Following his first career defeat to Andy Ruiz Jr. in 2019, Joshua looked cautious in a rematch, which he won by decision later that year. By keeping the fight at long range, Joshua ensured he did the job without any major scares, but he didn’t risk anything either. Similarly, against Jermaine Franklin in March of last year, his first fight following two defeats to Usyk, Joshua produced a slightly underwhelming performance. We were left wondering if Joshua had changed for good — would he ever be the same brutal puncher he once was?

Joshua, 34, has since emphatically answered that question in the affirmative. But as long as Dubois, 26, is in front of him, he remains a threat for Joshua. Dubois (21-2, 20 KOs) is heavy-handed, and the power of his punches recently made a mess of Filip Hrgovic. Dubois stopped Hrgovic on cuts in Round 8 to secure his second world title shot, after losing to Usyk by ninth-round KO in Poland last August. Dubois also insists he legitimately dropped Usyk earlier in the fight, but the punch was ruled a low blow.

Despite the Usyk setback, Dubois has impressively rebuilt his career after he was stopped by a jab from English rival Joe Joyce in Round 10 in 2020. Dubois was also floored in Round 1 by Kevin Lerena in 2022, but his punching power won him that fight, as it did in December against Jarrell “Big Baby” Miller, who weighed 333 pounds.

Joshua was ringside for Dubois’s fight with Hrgovic to get a closeup view of what he can exploit. Hrgovic repeatedly caught Dubois with right hands, which should give Joshua confidence about his chances. Joshua demolished Ngannou with a right hand, too, and if Dubois offers Joshua the same openings as he did against Hrgovic, he will be severely punished.

Joshua hits a lot harder than Hrgovic, and Joshua fights like his last fight, reminiscent of his late stoppage win over Wladimir Klitschko in ESPN’s 2017 fight of the year, also at Wembley Stadium, then Sept. 21 will be another glorious moment in his reborn career.

For Dubois to have a chance, he’s likely to set a high tempo against Joshua — it worked well for him versus Hrgovic, whom he was dominating at the time of the stoppage — and this would limit Joshua’s chances of planting his feet to land big shots. If Joshua is cautious and reluctant to engage against a known big puncher, like he was against Franklin and in Ruiz 2, Dubois will be allowed sustained time on the front foot to land what we know are damaging punches. Ruiz stopped Joshua, and Dubois will be repeatedly made aware of that by his team.

But as we saw against Hrgovic, Dubois will offer Joshua openings, and the former champion will likely seize them for another spectacular finish.