Why Andy Murray might be the fourth-best men's tennis player ever

If you accept the premise that Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are, in some order, the three best men’s players of all-time — and, hey, you might not, it’s a free country, and at the very least, Rod Laver has a great top-three case — that No. 4 spot has an endless number of candidates.

There’s Laver, of course. He won all four Grand Slam events in both 1962 and 1969 and finished with 11 Slam titles. That’s despite sacrificing five years of his prime to professional tennis, in the day when you could select either money or Slams but not both. There’s Big Bill Tilden, one of the sport’s first genuine superstars. He won seven US Opens, three Wimbledon titles and three pro majors before World War II and might have racked up a huge Slam total with the same opportunities today’s pros have. There’s Bjorn Borg, who burned out early but forced the entire men’s tennis tour to raise its game to combat his six French Open titles in eight years and five straight Wimbledons. Pete Sampras, John McEnroe, Jimmy Connors, Ken Rosewall, Ivan Lendl, Roy Emerson, Pancho Gonzalez … plenty of men have a case to make.

Allow me to make the case that Andy Murray is the fourth-best men’s tennis player of all time. Murray, who is combatting a body that refuses to give him peace, says he will retire if he’s fit to play at Wimbledon and the Paris Olympics. The 37-year-old is recovering from spinal surgery on June 22. He was No. 1 in the world in 2017 when a severe hip injury knocked him out for the next year. He hasn’t ranked higher than 37th in the seven years since — though reaching that rank with a resurfaced hip was an impressive accomplishment. But despite that, and despite just three Slam titles to his name, Murray might have genuinely been both No. 4 of his era and No. 4 of all eras. And to make his case, all I have to do is make three other players disappear.

Let’s pretend for a moment that, in some alternate universe, another sport — soccer, perhaps, or golf or basketball — attracts the attention of a boy in Basel named Roger, a boy in Mallorca named Rafa and a boy in Belgrade named Novak. They all still grow up to become famed athletes, but they do it in a sport that doesn’t involve a ball and a racquet.

Over the past 21 years, Federer, Nadal and Djokovic combined to win 66 Slam titles. They’ve together won more Slams than everyone else combined in that span, and Federer retired in 2022. Their respective success undoubtedly pushed them to new heights and drove Murray to push his body to its limits to catch them — which, however briefly, he did. Without them, maybe Murray doesn’t reach the same level that allowed him to win Wimbledon twice (2013 and 2016) and the US Open once (2012) and take the Olympic gold at Wimbledon in 2012. But if we look simply at the results at hand, Murray is the dominant force in a non-Big Three universe.

To back this point up, let’s walk through what the past two decades of Slams would have looked like without Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. This is not a scientific exercise, and I’m not going to re-seed the brackets and simulate entire tournaments. I’m simply going to look at which player outside of the Big Three made it the furthest in each major tournament, starting with Wimbledon 2003.

2003-07

Before Djokovic and Murray emerged as threats, men’s tennis was Federer’s domain for three Slams per year — he won all five Wimbledons in this span, plus four US Opens and three Australian Opens — and Nadal’s in Paris. In the 18 Slams from Wimbledon 2003 through 2007, Federer won 12 of them, while Nadal took three French Opens.

This was most starkly detrimental to Andy Roddick‘s résumé. Roddick still made it into tennis’s Hall of Fame with a single Slam title (2003 US Open), but he lost four other finals, including three Wimbledons, to Federer. Maybe we don’t end up looking back on him as Sampras’ or Agassi’s equal, but he comes close.

This story’s about another Andy, though. Let’s pick things up in 2008, when a 21-year-old from Scotland made his first Slam final. With the Roddicks, Hewitts and Safins of the world aging, 2008 would have been the year a new generation began to take over the sport.

2008

Australian Open
Best performance (outside of the Big Three): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Tsonga over David Ferrer

French Open
Best performance: Gael Monfils (lost to Federer in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Monfils over Nicolas Almagro

Wimbledon
Best performances: Safin (lost to Federer in the semis) and Rainer Schuttler (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Safin over Schuttler

US Open
Best performance: Andy Murray (lost to Federer in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Roddick

Gael Monfils: Slam champion! Between Tsonga and Monfils winning Slams and Richard Gasquet winning Wimbledon 2007, we would have seen loads of stories about a French tennis renaissance. But after a slow rise into the top 10, Murray makes — and wins — his first Slam in this alternate universe.

2009

Australian Open
Best performances: Fernando Verdasco (lost to Nadal in the semis) and Roddick (lost to Federer in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Roddick over Verdasco

French Open
Best performance: Robin Soderling (lost to Federer in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Soderling over Juan Martin del Potro

Wimbledon
Best performance: Roddick (lost to Federer in a gut-wrenching final)
Hypothetical final: Roddick over Tommy Haas

US Open
Best performance: Del Potro (beat Federer in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Del Potro over Soderling

It’s the year of the big hitter. Roddick adds two more to his Slams collection (bringing him to around eight overall), while a 25-year-old Soderling and 20-year-old Del Potro each win their first.

2010

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Federer in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Tsonga

French Open
Best performance: Soderling (lost to Nadal in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Soderling over Jurgen Melzer

Wimbledon
Best performance: Tomas Berdych (lost to Nadal in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Berdych over Andy Murray

US Open
Best performance: Mikhail Youzhny (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Soderling over Youzhny

Murray takes Slam No. 2, but it’s still a big-hitter’s paradise, with Soderling (whose career was derailed by illness and injury in 2011) dominating and Berdych stealing a Wimbledon crown from under Murray’s nose. But that’s fine — Murray is about to raise his game.

2011

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Berdych

French Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Monfils

Wimbledon
Best performances: Murray (lost to Nadal in the semis) and Tsonga (lost to Djokovic in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Tsonga

US Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Tsonga

A Scottish Slam! This was the year Murray completely established himself as, by some margin, the best player in the world not named Federer, Nadal or Djokovic. He went 56-13 overall in real-life 2011 — 2-6 against the Big Three and 54-7 against everyone else.

Unfortunately, four of his six losses to Djokovic and Nadal came in Slam semis and finals. But without either of them in tennis, it’s possible that Murray begins an unmatched run of dominance in the sport.

2012

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Berdych

French Open
Best performance: Ferrer (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Ferrer over Tsonga

Wimbledon
Best performance: Murray (lost to Federer in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Youzhny

US Open
Best performance: Murray (beat Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Ferrer

Murray indeed made the Big Three a Big Four in this period, winning his first Slam in 2012 after taking Olympic gold. Without the others, it’s a Big One. This is seven Slam titles in two years.

2013

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Ferrer

French Open
Best performance: Ferrer (lost to Nadal in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Ferrer over Stan Wawrinka

Wimbledon
Best performance: Murray (beat Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Del Potro

US Open
Best performances: Wawrinka (lost to Djokovic in the semis) and Gasquet (lost to Nadal in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Wawrinka over Gasquet

Wawrinka makes his move in 2013, with two Slam final appearances and one title, while Del Potro’s first injury comeback nearly bears fruit. But despite a late-season back injury, Murray’s still a runaway train. He’s up to 11 Slams, and he’s only 26 years old. Sampras’ record of 14 is in major trouble.

2014

Australian Open
Best performance: Wawrinka (beat Nadal in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Wawrinka over Murray

French Open
Best performances: Murray (lost to Nadal in the semis) and Ernests Gulbis (lost to Djokovic in the semis)

Hypothetical final: Murray over Gulbis

Wimbledon
Best performance: Grigor Dimitrov (lost to Djokovic in the semis) and Milos Raonic (lost to Federer in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Dimitrov over Raonic

US Open
Actual final: Marin Cilic over Kei Nishikori

Murray wins his 12th Slam, but a younger generation — 25-year-old Cilic, 24-year-old Nishikori, 23-year-old Dimitrov, 23-year-old Raonic — raises its collective game and snares a couple of titles.

2015

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Wawrinka

French Open
Best performance: Wawrinka (beat Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Wawrinka over Murray

Wimbledon

Best performances: Gasquet (lost to Djokovic in the semis) and Murray (lost to Federer in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Gasquet

US Open

Best performances: Cilic (lost to Djokovic in the semis) and Wawrinka (lost to Federer in the semis)
Hypothetical final: Wawrinka over Cilic

With another Wimbledon title, Murray ties Sampras with his 14th Slam, and Murray-Wawrinka becomes the defining rivalry of the mid-2010s.

2016

Australian Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Berdych

French Open
Best performance: Murray (lost to Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Murray over Dominic Thiem

Wimbledon
Actual final: Murray over Raonic

US Open
Best performance: Wawrinka (beat Djokovic in the finals)
Hypothetical final: Wawrinka over Monfils

This was probably Murray’s actual best year on tour, and in this alternate reality, he begins the year by passing Sampras with 15 Slams … then wins No. 16 and No. 17 in short order. He falls just short of another calendar Grand Slam, but he heads into 2017 as dominant as ever.

The real 2017, however, was the beginning of the end. As Rowan Phillips wrote in “The Circuit: A Tennis Odyssey”:

“Dogged physicality, living every point to its last possible end, being a wall: these were the building blocks by which Andy Murray rose to the heights of the game in an era when he could have been content with being a heroic loser, a rich man’s also-ran, and no one would have begrudged him it. […] The results were the results. But the results were coming from having to rev his engine further to its limits than he should.”

Murray began the year No. 1 and held onto the ranking for months despite battling some arm issues in the spring. But after a Wimbledon quarterfinal loss to Sam Querrey, he withdrew from the tour to rehab a hip injury. When rehab alone didn’t cut it, he had surgery in January 2018. He would eventually come back, but he was never the same. This was the end of Murray’s run as a truly elite player.

2017-24

To wrap up the exercise, here are the point totals (one point for advancing the furthest of any non-Big Three player in a given Slam, 0.5 each if two players topped out in the same round) for the Slams starting in 2017: Daniil Medvedev 5, Dominic Thiem 4, Carlos Alcaraz 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas 3, Kevin Anderson 2, Cilic 2, Casper Ruud 2, Wawrinka 1.5, Roberto Bautista Agut 1, Matteo Berrettini 1, del Potro 1, Nick Kyrgios 1, Jannik Sinner 1, Grigor Dimitrov 0.5, Lucas Pouille 0.5, Diego Schwartzman 0.5.

Without any of the Big Three or Murray, this is a time of solid transition on the tour. The work of Medvedev and Thiem stand out, and we still enter mid-2024 excited about an Alcaraz-versus-Sinner future, but they emerge after a long relative leadership void.

If the Big Three were indeed the three best ever, Murray really might have been No. 4

Acknowledging that, maybe he doesn’t push himself quite as far past his limits and reach quite the same heights, Murray still would have been likely to rake in a big — and maybe unprecedented — number of major titles. And even if he doesn’t reach the same levels, maybe his body doesn’t betray him as badly, and he plays at a higher level further into his 30s. If you want to go with Laver or Sampras or anyone else as the fourth head on men’s tennis’s Mount Rushmore, I can’t blame you. But Sir Andy has a case.