Will Alcaraz repeat? Can Swiatek win on grass? Storylines for Wimbledon 2024
After a blink-and-you’ll-miss-it grass-court season and less than three weeks removed from the French Open, Wimbledon is already upon us.
The year’s third major gets underway on Monday at the All England Club in London, and there is already no shortage of intrigue — starting with the status of Novak Djokovic. Following knee surgery earlier this month, it was assumed the 24-time major champion would be missing the tournament. However, Djokovic has been on site practicing all week in hopes of being ready to play.
If Djokovic doesn’t play, it will mark the first main draw at Wimbledon to not include a member of the Big Three since 1998, as Rafael Nadal has opted to skip the event to prepare for the Olympics. We’ll find out soon enough if Djokovic plans to play, but either way, there are so many other tantalizing storylines to watch.
Will Carlos Alcaraz successfully defend his title? Or will someone else — like newly minted world No. 1 Jannik Sinner or, heck, even the just-crowned Queen’s champion Tommy Paul or the red-hot British favorite Jack Draper — swoop in for the trophy?
On the women’s side, the grass remains perhaps the most open of the surfaces, as several of the top players have dealt with injuries and illness as of late, making it all the more chaotic.
Will either of the past two champions Marketa Vondrousova or Elena Rybakina run it back? Already a major champion on clay and hard court, could this be the tournament where things click on grass for Iga Swiatek? Or could Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka or two-time finalist Ons Jabeur win their first Wimbledon title?
Get your strawberries and cream or your Pimm’s cup ready, because this could be a Wimbledon for the books. Here are the players and storylines you need to know about before the action begins.
Iga’s new quest
Swiatek has been the world No. 1 for all but eight weeks over the past two years. She’s simply been the dominant force in women’s tennis during that span. Since the start of the 2022 season, Swiatek has won 19 titles, including four of her five majors and nine at the 1000 level.
But the one thing she hasn’t done during that impressive stretch? Win a title on grass.
While her prowess on clay and the hard court is well documented, she has struggled on grass and has never advanced past the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. After winning the French Open title earlier this month, Swiatek said she found the grass easier to adapt to every year but admitted — with a textbook humblebrag — she simply didn’t have a lot of time to prepare for it.
“It’s a huge challenge,” Swiatek said. “If I would lose [at Roland Garros] earlier, maybe I would be able to play two more weeks on grass and then be a better grass player, but if I [had to] choose, I love playing on clay, so I’m not going to give up that ever.”
Swiatek, 23, opted to skip all of the lead-in events and hasn’t played on the surface since Wimbledon in 2023. However she did say she would be spending a lot of time training on it and arrived on site earlier this week where she was spotted practicing alongside Alcaraz on Monday. While it remains Swiatek’s trickiest surface, she still is a betting favorite to take the title and, if anyone can figure out the surface, it has to be her. She will begin play with a tough test against Sofia Kenin, the 2020 Australian Open champion who upset Gauff in the opening round at Wimbledon in 2023.
A pair of @rolandgarros champions practice at SW19 🤩#Wimbledon | @iga_swiatek | @carlosalcaraz pic.twitter.com/8P1TQ3Ozck
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 24, 2024
But it’s anyone’s trophy to win
As mentioned, grass — and by extension, Wimbledon — is perhaps the most egalitarian of all of the surfaces at this point. Therefore, there are a number of top women who could ultimately claim the title — and likely a few who might not even yet be on the radar. Just ask Vondrousova.
Last year, Vondrousova, then ranked No. 42, surprised just about everyone as she defeated seeded player after seeded player. In the final, she defeated Jabeur 6-4, 6-4, and won her first major title, becoming the first unseeded Wimbledon champion in the Open era.
However, her status to defend the Venus Rosewater Dish is still unclear. After reaching the quarterfinals at the French Open, Vondrousova injured her right hip last week after falling in her second-round match in Berlin. She had to retire from the match, prompting questions about her ability to fully recover in time for Wimbledon, but she remains in the draw as of now, and is slated to open her defense against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. Swiatek is a potential quarterfinal foe.
Injuries and health are a concern for many of the top contenders beyond Vondrousova as well.
The status of Rybakina, who won the tournament in 2022 as the No. 17 seed, is also very much a question mark. The 25-year-old has been forced to miss several tournaments this season due to illnesses, and she too retired from a match in Berlin with abdominal pain. She then withdrew from Eastbourne this week citing a “change in schedule.”
When Rybakina has been able to play this year, she has won three titles and reached five finals. So, if she’s healthy, she certainly could be in contention for another title.
Both Sabalenka, the two-time defending Australian Open champion and two-time semifinalist at the All England Club, and Jabeur, who has reached the past two finals at Wimbledon, both needed to retire from their matches at Berlin as well. (We’re not saying this tournament was cursed, but we’re not not saying it either.) Sabalenka experienced shoulder pain and Jabeur had an illness. If healthy, they both could be major factors.
However, there are two players currently ranked in the top five who don’t seem to be sick or hurt: No. 2 Gauff and No. 5 Jessica Pegula.
Gauff reached the semifinals in Berlin and has twice reached the fourth round at the All England Club. A crowd favorite since her auspicious debut as a 15-year-old at the tournament in 2019, Gauff lost in the first round at Wimbledon last year — but has been on a tear ever since.
Pegula, who missed the clay season with injury, returned earlier this month at the Rosmalen Grass Court Championships. And in Berlin, just her second tournament back, she won the title — her first on grass — following a hard-fought comeback victory over Anna Kalinskaya 6-7 (0), 6-4, 7-6 (3). The 30-year-old reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon last year and now returns with more momentum and self-belief than ever on grass.
“I knew that I could play well on the surface, and giving myself a couple of extra weeks on grass clearly paid off,” Pegula said in an interview with the WTA after winning the title. “[This is] the most grass-court confidence I’ve had probably going into Wimbledon. Hopefully that pays off as well.”
Alcaraz’s title defense
After being nearly bageled in the first set, Alcaraz stunned Djokovic in the thrilling 2023 final 1-6, 7-6 (6), 6-1, 3-6, 6-4, for his second major title and first at the All England Club. It marked the conclusion of a dominant stretch on the surface for Alcaraz, who had also won the title at Queen’s.
Despite his results, Alcaraz — who nabbed his third Grand Slam title at the French Open earlier this month — remains fairly inexperienced on grass. This year’s Wimbledon will be just his sixth tour-level tournament on the surface. Alcaraz also isn’t arriving with quite the same momentum this time around as he was upset by Draper 7-6 (3), 6-3, in the second round at Queen’s Club. It marked his lone tuneup event before Wimbledon and he was candid when speaking about his on-court struggles after the loss.
“I’m not too good right now,” Alcaraz told reporters. “I felt like I didn’t play well, I didn’t move well … Of course, I really wanted to keep playing matches, but it doesn’t change nothing. I’m going to keep practicing at 100% just to improve, just to be a little bit better [for] Wimbledon, and my focus right now is just to the practice courts and be at my 100%.”
But Alcaraz said he was “excited” to be returning to Wimbledon and said it would be “special” to play his first match on Centre Court (against Mark Lajal) as the defending champion. So now the question is, how will Alcaraz fare in the position as a favorite, especially coming off of a challenging loss?
One thing is for sure, with Paul, Alexander Bublik or Casper Ruud as likely quarterfinal opponents, and with Sinner or Daniil Medvedev potentially awaiting in the semifinals, it won’t be easy.
The other title contenders
So who could challenge Alcaraz for the Wimbledon title? Besides Djokovic (more on that later), there are a few men who could take advantage of the opportunity and win the title.
Perhaps no one has a better chance to do so than Sinner, the world No. 1 and Australian Open champion.
The 22-year-old Italian won his first grass title last week at the Halle Open with a 7-6 (8), 7-6 (2) statement victory over Hubert Hurkacz in the final. Sinner, who lost to Alcaraz in the French Open semifinals, appears to be in top form on the surface and reached the final four at Wimbledon last season. He will be the top seed at the All England Club, marking his first time in the position at a major, and he said he was ready to continue building on his momentum.
“Last year I made the semis, I played some good tennis, so let’s see what’s coming this year,” Sinner said after winning the Halle title. “I’m more confident for sure. Obviously the grass might be a bit different from here and Wimbledon, but I have one week now to prepare, so hopefully it’s going to be a good tournament.”
Jannik Sinner is everywhere 💨@janniksin #TerraWortmannOpen pic.twitter.com/RfElM8w0QZ
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) June 23, 2024
Hurkacz, a 2021 Wimbledon semifinalist and 2022 Halle champion, could certainly be one to watch as well. World No. 5 Medvedev won just one match in his tournament preparation, but he reached the semifinals in 2023 and could rediscover his form once play gets underway.
Alexander Zverev, ranked No. 4, has never advanced past the fourth round at the All England Club but is coming off of a French Open final appearance and a semifinal run at Halle. Alex de Minaur, ranked No. 9, reached the second major quarterfinals of his career at Roland Garros and won his second grass court title at the Rosmalen Grass Court Championships.
Even players outside of the top 10 could surprise.
Paul also earned his first career grass title last week at Queen’s with a 6-1, 7-6 (8) win over Lorenzo Musetti in the final. The 27-year-old Paul is now the top-ranked American man at No. 12. While certainly a long shot, he will look to become the first American man to win the Wimbledon title since Pete Sampras in 2000.
He sounded enthusiastic about the challenge when asked about it Sunday.
“Historically and now, the Americans like playing on grass,” Paul told reporters. “We play an aggressive game style, I think most of us do, and I think it matches up well with the surface … I mean, we’re all turning our sights onto Wimbledon and we’re going to try and be as ready as we can.”
Draper, now ranked a career-high No. 29 and the top-ranked British man, is also riding some momentum into his home Slam. The 22-year-old won his first ATP title earlier this month at Stuttgart and then defeated Alcaraz at Queen’s for the biggest victory of his career.
While the hype and attention from the British media and fans might prove to be challenging, a run into the second week certainly doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility, and it would provide an electric energy around the grounds.
Murray and the home favorites
While Draper might have the best chance of winning among his fellow countrymen, no one will get more attention than Andy Murray. If, that is, he’s able to play.
The beloved Scot and two-time Wimbledon champion had previously said this would likely be his last time playing at the event and he would appear in singles and doubles alongside his brother Jamie. However, Murray retired during his second-round match at Queen’s with back pain and then underwent a procedure over the weekend. Some reports have stated the recovery is a minimum of four weeks.
On Thursday, the 37-year-old said he would be waiting until “the very last moment” to make his decision about whether or not he would be playing at Wimbledon, but it’s clear he will do everything in his power to do so. And, if he is able, expect the crowd at his matches to give him the hero’s farewell he deserves. He is scheduled to face Tomas Machac in the first round.
Other homegrown players who will certainly be placed on show courts and should receive large on site support include Katie Boulter, the top-ranked British woman who won her second straight title at Nottingham this month, and 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu.
Having missed the French Open due to her ranking, the injury-prone Raducanu — currently the world No. 168 — received a wild card to play at the All England Club and will look to return to her winning ways in front of the home crowd. Raducanu reached the fourth round at the tournament in her major debut in 2021 but hasn’t advanced past the second round at a Slam since her triumph in New York nearly three years ago. Raducanu, who reached the quarterfinals at Eastbourne earlier this week, must first take on No. 22 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova in her opener.
The Djokovic question
If you haven’t caught on by now, the status of many of the top players is very much in doubt. It remains the biggest question before play gets underway. But no one’s presence looms larger at the tournament this year than Djokovic’s.
His arrival at the All England Club was a surprise to many. Most believed Djokovic wouldn’t be able to play due to surgery on a torn medial meniscus in his right knee on June 6 and a projected recovery time of four to six weeks.
But throughout the week, and with a brace on his right knee, Djokovic has been spotted intensely practicing on site and looks to be near competition-ready.
And of course there’s a lot at stake for Djokovic if he is able to play. After a disappointing season — by his lofty standards — Djokovic is looking for his 25th major title, which would break a tie with Margaret Court for the most in history.
After winning No. 24 at the US Open in September, and publicly stating his desire to win all four Slams and Olympic gold in 2024, Djokovic lost in the semifinals at the Australian Open and retired ahead of his quarterfinal match at the French Open due to the knee injury.
Despite last year’s result, Djokovic remains the most experienced and successful active player at Wimbledon. Another title would tie him with Roger Federer for the most by a man at the tournament with eight. Djokovic told the BBC he would only play if he believed he had a chance to “fight for the title.”
“I didn’t come here to play a few rounds,” Djokovic said after his practice Monday. “If I know I can play close to my maximum or at maximum, then I’ll play. If not, then I’ll give somebody else a chance to play.”
So, will he play? Won’t he play? We’ll just have to wait and find out. If he does, Vit Kopriva awaits in the opening round and Alcaraz, Sinner and Medvedev are all on the other side of the draw.
Next stop, Paris?
Many of the biggest names in tennis will be returning to Roland Garros soon after Wimbledon to compete in the 2024 Olympics. It marks the first time the Games will be held on clay since Barcelona in 1992. The transition from clay to grass and then back to clay has already become a major talking point.
Rafael Nadal chose to sit out Wimbledon to keep training on clay so he could have his best chance to medal in what is expected to be his final Olympics. Some players have expressed their concerns about the switch and the risk of injury. Others, such as Sabalenka, Jabeur, Raducanu, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton and Madison Keys, are all opting to skip the Olympics entirely.
Sabalenka blamed the WTA’s intense schedule for her decision and said she needed to ensure she had a “little rest” before the North American hard-court swing. Raducanu said she was “prioritizing my body and my health” in turning down the opportunity. In an interview with James Gray of iNews at Queen’s Club last week, Tiafoe said his focus would be exclusively on preparing for the hard-court season following Wimbledon.
“It’s insignificant to what I’m trying to do going through to the US Open,” Tiafoe said. “I love my country, but I think I gotta think about myself.”
Expect this conversation to continue throughout the fortnight as players get asked (over and over!) about their respective decisions.
