Trump assassination attempt makes election win more likely, and Americans’ willingness to use political violence may be highest since the Civil War, Ian Bremmer says

The apparent assassination attempt occurred as the country was already deeply polarized, with many Americans convinced that their political opponents are determined to destroy U.S. democracy, he said in a video posted to X.

“This is the worst sort of event that can happen in that environment, and I deeply worry that this presages much more political violence and social instability to come,” he added.

When similar events have occurred in other countries in the past, they frequently didn’t end well, Bremmer warned.

In the short term, he said the image of Trump raising his fist in the air with blood streaked across his face while Secret Service agents carry him to safety will contrast dramatically with President Joe Biden.

Trump’s Democratic opponent has been fighting off calls to exit the race after a disastrous debate performance last month, when he appeared frail and confused, reinforcing existing concerns about his age.

“It makes it more likely that Trump wins,” Bremmer said Saturday, as Trump’s reaction to the shooting “is the opposite of frail.”

Indeed, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced minutes after the shooting that he was endorsing Trump, saying the “Last time America had a candidate this tough was Theodore Roosevelt.”

Ideally, America’s political leadership will unite to denounce political violence with lawmakers gathering in a joint session of Congress and committing to a peaceful transition, Bremmer said.

But he has serious doubts that will happen. Instead, Americans should be prepared for more violence across the political spectrum, he warned, pointing out that guns are more available in the U.S. than any other G7 country.

While immediate parallels were drawn to the assassination attempt on President Ronald Reagan in 1981, other political observers have highlighted more recent examples, such as Jan. 6, 2021, when Trump supporters stormed the Capitol to disrupt the process of finalizing Biden’s 2020 election win. Others include the shootings of Republican Rep. Steve Scalise in 2017 and then-Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords in 2011.

Meanwhile, political extremism and disinformation have been weaponized, particularly via social media, and U.S. adversaries like Russia, Iran, and North Korea are keen to stoke more violence and instability, Bremmer said.

With Americans perceiving existential threats to democracy, he said the willingness to use violence could get higher than at any point since 1968, when Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert Kennedy were assassinated, and perhaps since the Civil War.

Elsewhere in the world, free and fair elections have taken place recently in France, the United Kingdom, India, Mexico. But the U.S. is the only major democracy that’s in serious crisis, Bremmer said.

“This is going to require people to recognize that U.S. political institutions are in danger and that they require our protection together as citizens to uphold the values that we believe in,” he added. “Further devolution into blamesmanship, into polarization, into the weaponization of politics is the way you lose your democracy.”