Olympics 2024: Favorites, contenders and long shots for tennis in Paris
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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
Every four years (or so), tennis gives us a fifth major. Well, sort of. Tennis at the Olympics sometimes provides titanic heavyweight matchups — and sometimes delivers surprises.
It will be hard to top Andy Murray vs. Roger Federer and Serena Williams vs. Maria Sharapova for gold medals in 2012. It makes sense that Murray and Rafael Nadal have combined for three gold medals. However, Nicolas Massu and Monica Puig having singles golds while Federer and Novak Djokovic do not makes a little less sense.
As with the 2012 Olympics, which took place at Wimbledon’s All England Club, the 2024 tournament in Paris will unfold at an awfully familiar location: Roland Garros, home of the French Open. Injuries have taken out some highly ranked players, but all of the men’s and women’s semifinalists from this year’s French Open are in the Olympic field, as are Nadal, the 14-time French Open champion, and Murray, a two-time gold medalist.
In other words, there are plenty of storylines to follow.
Wimbledon just ended, but another Slam(ish) product begins in just two weeks. Here are the names to know ahead of the Games.
Men’s preview
Favorites
Carlos Alcaraz: It probably goes without saying that the guy who’s won the past two Slams heads to Paris as the No. 1 threat. After taking down both Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev in five sets to win his first French Open title, Alcaraz steamrolled Djokovic to win his second straight Wimbledon crown. Both runs required perseverance — he dropped a total of 10 sets at the two tournaments and played in seven tiebreakers (winning six) — but he’s now won four of the past seven Slams he’s entered. And he only turned 21 two months ago. Wow.
Jannik Sinner: Sinner won 25 of his first 26 matches of 2024 and took the Australian Open title and the No. 1 ranking for the first time in June. He’s 0-2 against Alcaraz, though, which makes him the No. 2 favorite in Paris.
There are few things in sports more entertaining than an Alcaraz-Sinner matchup at the moment, and the thought of a gold medal match between them is awfully tantalizing if the draw cooperates.
Alexander Zverev: Not including injury retirements, Zverev has won 21 of his past 24 matches at Roland Garros. He reached the finals this year and was a set away from his first Slam title before Alcaraz stormed back to win in five. Of course, if we’re counting the Olympics as Slams, then he’s already got a title: He beat Djokovic, among others, to win gold in Tokyo three years ago.
Novak Djokovic: He’s battling through his most frustrating season in ages. For only the second time in 14 years, he’s failed to win one of the first three Slams of the year. He hasn’t beaten a top-10 player on clay since the 2023 French Open. He’s 37, and he tore his meniscus barely a month ago.
He’s also the all-time Slam titles leader and won a match with the torn meniscus at the French Open, then reached the Wimbledon final (albeit with a very fortunate draw) just a couple of weeks after surgery. At best, he’s the No. 3 favorite in Paris, but … he still might be the No. 3 favorite with one good knee at age 37!
Casper Ruud: Blessed with torque-heavy topspin, Ruud was built for clay. He’s reached the semifinals of three straight French Opens and went to the finals twice. Even as his results on other surfaces have wavered, he’s still gone 21-5 on clay (6-2 against top-20 opponents) over the past year. Norway’s more of a Winter Olympics country, but he’s got a strong chance to medal.
Long shots
Stefanos Tsitsipas: It’s been a frustrating couple of years for Tsitsipas, but while results have dried up on other surfaces, he’s still made the French Open quarterfinals in each of the past two years after reaching the semis in 2020 and the finals in 2021. If he’s going to do damage in a major tournament, it’s pretty likely to be on clay at this point.
Daniil Medvedev: He’s made the finals of five of the past seven hard-court Slams, and while he’s never made the semis at Roland Garros, he’s reached at least the round of 16 in 14 of his past 15 Slams. At worst, he’s the fourth-best player in the world, and he’s about the surest thing in the sport when it comes to avoiding upsets. That makes him a threat.
Jan-Lennard Struff: Now let’s get to a longer long shot. At age 34, the 6-foot-4 Struff has never won more than 54% of his tour matches in a given year, but he’s 23-15 (60.5%) in 2024, 11-4 on clay (73.3%) and he’s reached three of his four career finals since last May. An Olympic run would be quite the cap on a late-career renaissance for the big man.
Coolest Olympic story
Moez Echargui: He’s 31, has never played a top-50 opponent and has a career-high ranking of 271st. His biggest honor, besides playing for the Tunisian Davis Cup team, might be winning the Mountain West’s Co-Player of the Year award at Nevada. But he won the 2023 African Games, and it qualified him for a spot in the Olympic field. He gets to play at Roland Garros. How cool is that? And how cool would it be if he got to play a Nadal or a Djokovic in the first round?
The Olympic miracle
Rafael Nadal: Veterans and comebacks are creating a number of fun Olympic subplots. On the women’s side, you’ve got players such as 34-year-old Caroline Wozniacki and 36-year-old Angelique Kerber, the silver medalist in 2016, making post-motherhood comebacks. The men’s draw gives us even more of these stories (well, without the motherhood). We’ve got Stan Wawrinka, the 39-year-old former French Open champion (2015) and, with Federer, the 2008 men’s doubles gold medalist. We’ve got Murray, the two-time gold medalist and 2016 French Open finalist, playing in his last tournament before retirement. And above all else, we’ve got Nadal.
It’s possible that no one has ever been married more closely to a major venue than Nadal with Roland Garros. He’s 112-4 all time there, and he spent more than a year working his way back from injury with what seemed like the sole purpose of playing the French Open/Olympics combo in Paris. The French Open didn’t go as planned. As an unseeded entry he drew Zverev in the first round and played well, but still lost in straight sets. However, he skipped a potential last Wimbledon stop in the name of getting tuned up on clay and making one last run in Paris. It would be absolutely incredible to witness. We’ll see if he can play his way into form, but with a protected ranking he at least won’t draw a tournament favorite in the first round again.
Women’s preview
Favorite
Iga Swiatek: The women’s tour is an odd combination of three tours in one at the moment. On hard courts, the heavyweights — Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Aryna Sabalenka, etc. — all swing big (when healthy) and play well. On grass courts, it’s basically a random outcome generator: We’ve seen eight different champions over the past eight Wimbledons and 13 different semifinalists over the past four.
On clay courts, it’s Swiatek’s universe. She’s won three straight (and four of five) French Open titles, and of the past six WTA 1000 clay-court events she’s entered, she’s won four and reached the finals of a fifth. She played 15 sets at the 2024 French Open, dropping only one and winning 10 of the 14 others by a 6-2 margin or worse. Her footwork and defense on clay are virtually perfect. No one is unbeatable, especially in a best-of-three format, but on this surface she’s as close as it gets.
Long shots
Coco Gauff: It’s odd calling the No. 2 player in the world — and a former French Open finalist — a long shot, but that’s the situation when Swiatek’s in the field. Still, Gauff is 15-0 at Roland Garros against players not named Swiatek over the past three years, and hey, you still get a pretty cool medal for finishing second or third at this event, right?
Elena Rybakina: Over her past 33 matches on clay, Swiatek is 0-2 against Rybakina (including a third-set injury retirement, at least) and 31-0 against everyone else. Rybakina has been a little inconsistent of late, losing to lower-ranked players at each of her past three tournaments, but she’s got a huge game, and she knows what it’s like to beat Swiatek on clay. That makes her a contender.
Barbora Krejcikova: She’s won a Slam on clay (2021 French Open), she’s won the most recent Slam (Wimbledon, beating Jasmine Paolini in the finals), and she’s won a gold medal (2020 women’s doubles). That’s an almost perfect set of results if you’re looking for someone capable of medaling.
Jasmine Paolini: What a year it’s been for the 28-year-old. She was 4-16 all time at Slams heading into this year but is 15-3 in 2024. She’s brimming with confidence, and her high-energy game (and short stature) has wooed crowds. She’s a threat to make a run in any tournament she enters while her form is at this level.
Mirra Andreeva She reached the French Open semifinals a month after her 17th birthday, and she’s 20-7 on clay (5-4 against the top 20) over the past two years. She faltered in the face of expectations during grass-court season (0-2 in two events), but her game, blessed with excellent point-construction and anticipation, blossoms on the dirt.
Coolest Olympic story
Laura Pigossi: The 29-year-old from Brazil didn’t reach a Slam main draw until age 27, and her best career ranking is 100th. But a brilliant run at last fall’s Pan American Games earned her an automatic spot in the field. And hey, seven of her eight career wins against top-100 foes came on clay. She could pull an upset or two.
The Olympic miracle
Danielle Collins: OK, yes, “miracle” is pushing it — she’s ninth in the world, after all. But since announcing she would be retiring at the end of the season, the 30-year-old has enjoyed the most sustained run of form in her career, reaching three finals and winning two. She’s 16-4 on clay in 2024, and all four losses came against players who aren’t in the Olympic field. Winning a medal on your way out the door would be awfully sweet.
