Reese underestimated, Carrington underrated and more we've learned from WNBA season's first half

Record-setting performances. A generational rookie class. Arguably six championship contenders.

It has been a WNBA summer like none other. And with the increased attention surrounding the league, catalyzed in large part by a standout rookie class led by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, fans new and old have witnessed a competitive first half of the season.

The season has brought a mix of the expected and unexpected, too. League followers suspected Clark would make an immediate impact, but fellow rookies Reese, Rickea Jackson and Aaliyah Edwards have been instrumental for their franchises. The Dallas Wings and Atlanta Dream, playoff teams a year ago, are struggling, as were the Las Vegas Aces before Chelsea Gray‘s return from injury. The Minnesota Lynx won the Commissioner’s Cup championship. And several breakout players, such as Chennedy Carter who has found the perfect home with the Chicago Sky, are playing the best basketball of their careers.

Now, all eyes will shift to Phoenix for the All-Star Game on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), then across the Atlantic to Paris, where the U.S. national team looks to win its eighth consecutive Olympic gold medal.

As the league prepares for a monthlong break, here are 10 things we’ve learned — about teams and individuals, ceilings and floors — from the first half of the 2024 WNBA season.

Experts were wrong about Reese

The Chicago forward is in the running for WNBA Rookie of the Year as the No. 7 pick. Why was Reese — who is leading the WNBA in rebounding and set the league’s consecutive double-double record — not taken higher? Several talent evaluators questioned whether her game would translate well to the WNBA. Some experts seem to have overestimated her weaknesses, such as shooting range, while undervaluing her strengths, such as rebounding, defense and motor. But it has worked out well for Reese in Chicago under first-year coach Teresa Weatherspoon and playing alongside 6-foot-7 Kamilla Cardoso.

Reese ranks second in the WNBA in total rebounds (trailing MVP front-runner A’ja Wilson by one board) and rebounds per game (again narrowly trailing Wilson 12.0 to 11.9). — Voepel

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DiJonai Carrington was the biggest miss of her draft class

The 2021 WNBA draft class has underperformed compared to most other classes. It’s hard to gauge how much the COVID-19 pandemic taking away the 2020 NCAA tournament and being a cloud over the 2020-21 college season impacted the class. But we can say WNBA teams underestimated Carrington, who was picked No. 20 by the Connecticut Sun.

Carrington, who played at Stanford and Baylor, was slotted at No. 11 in that year’s final ESPN mock draft. But now even that seems too low considering how well she has played offensively and defensively this season for the Sun. Of the 19 players drafted before her, only five are currently on WNBA rosters. Carrington was our midseason pick for Most Improved Player. — Voepel

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Sparks, Mystics have entered the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes

It’s never too early to talk about 2025 — especially with a player as promising as UConn’s Bueckers waiting in the wings to be drafted. Barring some major developments, the Los Angeles Sparks (6-18) and Washington Mystics (6-19) will likely have the greatest odds of getting the top pick in next spring’s draft, which isn’t entirely shocking considering both teams have been in rebuild mode.

Remember, a team’s cumulative two-year record is what matters for the lottery, which is why the Sparks and Mystics would have better odds than the Wings (5-19), who are in last place in current WNBA standings but finished with the fourth-best record in 2023. The Dream, currently ninth in the standings, traded away their first-round pick in the transaction that brought Allisha Gray to Atlanta, and that pick has since ended up in the hands of the Mystics. — Philippou

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Just how motivated Wilson is

No one in the world is playing like A’ja Wilson right now. She might be having one of the best seasons in WNBA history.

Amid her absolute tear of a run in 2024, Wilson has cited last year’s notorious fourth-place MVP vote as part of her motivation (she came in third in the 2023 race, narrowly behind Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas). This time around, Wilson is leaving no room for doubt across the first half of the season and looks to be on her way to becoming the fourth player in league history to win MVP at least three times. The others: Lauren Jackson, Sheryl Swoopes and Lisa Leslie.

Through Tuesday, Wilson has tallied at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in 12 games this summer, the most in a season in WNBA history, and her six consecutive games of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds are a WNBA regular-season record. — Philippou

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Carter, Diggins-Smith and Charles find right fit

Guards Chennedy Carter and Skylar Diggins-Smith and center Tina Charles — all former lottery picks — didn’t play in the WNBA in 2023. And it was a little uncertain whether they would each find the right scenarios to return to the league. But this season, they are all helping their new teams. Carter leads the Chicago Sky in scoring, Diggins-Smith is tops in assists for the Seattle Storm, and Charles leads the Atlanta Dream in rebounding. Carter is just 25, while Charles (35) and Diggins-Smith (34 in August) are at a different stage of their careers. But their talent has had leaguewide impact this season. — Voepel

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The best plays from the week in WNBA

Check out the top plays from the past week of action in the WNBA, including Caitlin Clark, Kahleah Copper, and more.

Caitlin Clark excels at adjustments

Defenses always geared against Clark in college, but it’s at another level in the WNBA. Yet the Indiana Fever point guard already has adjusted to frequent blitzing on ball screens, being tightly guarded full court and handling the constant physicality from defenders that WNBA officials are more likely to let go. She has not let herself get too rattled or frustrated despite dealing with the most scrutiny any player in the league has ever faced.

Sure, Clark is committing a league-high 5.6 turnovers per game, but a lot of it can be attributed to aggressive playmaking. She’s already one of the league’s best passers and became the first rookie in WNBA history to tally a triple-double. — Voepel

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Sabally makes all the difference for Dallas

Satou Sabally led the Dallas Wings to a fourth-place regular-season finish last season while earning MVP votes, a first-team All-WNBA nod and the Most Improved Player award. Without Sabally — who has yet to play this season as she recovers from offseason shoulder injury — the Wings have struggled mightily, sitting at last place in the standings at 5-19.

It hasn’t helped that Dallas has also been without Maddy Siegrist (finger) and Jaelyn Brown (illness), while Natasha Howard (foot) was sidelined 12 games. Sabally, who is critical at both ends of the court, is expected to return after the Olympic break. Can she and the Wings put together a run to make the playoff race more interesting? — Philippou

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The Mercury could be the 2024 version of the 2021 Sky

The Aces were the top-seeded team in the playoffs when they won the past two WNBA titles. But in 2021, the sixth-seeded Chicago Sky — with a 16-16 regular-season record — went on a run to win the championship.

It might not seem like the most probable scenario, but the Phoenix Mercury have the talent and makings of a high-octane offense to make a deep run, even if they’re just 13-12 after Tuesday’s road win at Washington. Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and Natasha Cloud have all won a championship before, as has Kahleah Copper, the Finals MVP from Chicago’s 2021 squad.

That said, they’d need to stay healthy — Phoenix’s preferred starting lineup has appeared in only 11 games this season as the team limped into the Olympic break — plus make major strides defensively, where they rank in the bottom quarter of the league. — Philippou

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Minnesota has championship chemistry again

Coaches often dislike comparing teams from different eras. But the Lynx being likened personality-wise to Minnesota’s dynasty years — six trips to the WNBA Finals in seven seasons (2011-17) — is the ultimate compliment. The original core of Seimone Augustus, Maya Moore, Lindsay Whalen and Rebekkah Brunson that then added Sylvia Fowles played incredibly well together. That Hall of Fame-level group is hard for any other team to match strictly on talent.

But Cheryl Reeve, who has coached the Lynx since 2010, said of the Napheesa Collier-led 2024 squad, “Chemistry is always at the root of a successful team, and that is laced through our team.” Minnesota beat league leader New York for the Commissioner’s Cup title in late June. — Voepel

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Sabrina Ionescu puts up 30 in Liberty’s win over Sun

Sabrina Ionescu’s seventh career game with 30 points propels the Liberty past the Sun.

The New York Liberty might be better than they were last year

The Liberty were billed as a superteam last season and are arguably even better now. Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu have been even more dominant — with Jones looking like her former MVP self and Ionescu playing at an all-WNBA first-team level. The retooled bench has been a major difference-maker, with Leonie Fiebich making a strong case for the all-rookie team. The defense isn’t perfect, but it has a higher ceiling with Sandy Brondello able to lean on the defensive-minded group of Fiebich, Kayla Thornton and Kennedy Burke. And with a year of playing together, New York’s chemistry on both ends grows by the game.

Whether that translates to the franchise’s first WNBA title remains to be seen — particularly with so many contenders this year and the Aces looking to make a push now at full health. — Philippou