Asia has a Trump trade too: Investors think India will win, China will lose from the former president’s ‘America First’ policy
Stock traders in Asia are ramping up the Trump trade in preparation for a potential second term for the former US president, which will likely create winners and losers in the region.
Donald Trump’s “America first” policies on trade, defense and other industries would hamper the outlook of a myriad of sectors in Asia from agriculture and farm equipment to textiles and weapons production. Asian companies’ momentum in the global race for electric vehicles and chips could slow should a Trump administration follow through on his pledges.
China is seen as a clear loser given Trump’s call for higher tariffs and confrontational rhetoric against the world’s second largest economy. Taiwan and South Korea, which are heavily reliant on export revenues from semiconductor and other tech sectors, are also staring at an outlook downturn, market watchers say.
India is deemed as a potential beneficiary should the former US president’s polling hold up and lead to his win in November. Southeast Asian economies, whose fortunes aren’t closely tied to exports, may be able to deflect much of the fallout from a change in the White House, investors say.
Here is what investors are saying about prospects for Asia’s key markets:
India
Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier:
“India stands out as an economy that is relatively shielded from these shocks as the country has only a small share of global goods markets and is less exposed to China-related risks.”
Anand Gupta, portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors:
“It looks like India has a much better relationship with the US. At least from India’s side, the impact of Trump was not as bad as it was for many other emerging markets. It’s difficult to think it’ll be different this time.”
China
Fabiana Fedeli, global CIO for equities, multi asset & sustainability at M&G Investments:
“China’s obviously going to be one of the most affected if those tariffs really come in place and if Trump successfully can put enough pressure on the EU to also put some tariffs of their own on China.”
Still, “a lot of companies are diversifying their markets or starting to diversify the supply chains and build manufacturing facilities outside of China. And even if a Trump presidency imposes high tariffs, Europe might decide not to follow it unless there is some really super strong political pressure.”
Japan
Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier:
“For Japan, we believe that risks are more balanced than China as the country’s sensitivity to global trade is a bit lower, and its relations with the US will likely remain solid even under the Trump administration.”
“We also see the opportunity for the country to cement its semiconductor sector renaissance if Taiwan or South Korea end up bearing the brunt of the Trump team’s potentially consequential re-calibration of the US strategy for them.”
Southeast Asia
Jasmine Duan, senior investment strategist at RBC Wealth Management Asia:
“In Asia, the biggest beneficiaries are likely to be Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia. Vietnam has been benefiting from the lower-end manufacturing, such as textile and wooden furniture, while Taiwan and Malaysia have been benefiting from electronic products supply chain shifts.”
Mark Mobius, chairman of Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund:
“Southeast Asia will be in a pretty good position because of what’s happening with China. So in that sense, Southeast Asia would be good. Thailand even, well, Vietnam may get into some trouble because they’re doing so much manufacturing of Chinese goods, but they’re also doing a lot of manufacturing for Korea.”
Thomas Rupf, Asia chief investment officer at VP Bank:
“For Asia, it would really affect the tech-related ones more. It’s really whether the momentum trade of Taiwan, Korea is going to continue a bit longer, versus Asean being a bit more resilient, less tied to the tech sector, and having the China plus one strategy and secular themes playing out.”
