Men's World Cup way-too-early look: Spain to reign, Messi's last dance, sweltering heat

What a summer of football we have just witnessed. Spain were crowned European champions by winning Euro 2024, defeating England in Berlin, while Argentina claimed a three successive major trophy by achieving back-to-back Copa America titles after lifting the World Cup at Qatar 2022. But football moves on quickly, and even though it is still party time in Madrid and Buenos Aires, the focus has firmly shifted to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

It will be the biggest World Cup — a 48-nation tournament lasting 5½ weeks in three nations and 16 cities across four time zones — and this summer’s continental championships have identified the emerging stars and leading nations that could dominate the scene in two years’ time.

The next World Cup final will take place at New Jersey’s MetLIfe Stadium on July 19, 2026, so with almost two years to go until the biggest game in football, here are some way-too-early predictions for 2026.

Spain will be the team to beat

Spain’s Euro 2024 final win over England sealed La Roja‘s fourth European title and made them the most successful nation in the competition’s history. It was no fluke, either, as Luis de la Fuente’s team did it with some of the most exciting young talent in world football. Barcelona winger Lamine Yamal celebrated his 17th birthday the day before the final, while Nico Williams turned 22 less than a week before the win against England. Add in midfielders Pedri (21) and 19-year-old Gavi, the latter missing the Euros through injury, and it is clear that Spain are only going to be stronger in two years.

Aside from captain Álvaro Morata, 31, who is expected to retire from international football following the Euros, Spain’s squad is likely to have a familiar look to it in 2026. They also beat Italy, Germany, France and England en route to victory this summer; they know how to win against the major nations, and it will take some effort to stop them at the next World Cup.

Get ready for Messi’s last dance

Lionel Messi will be 39 years old during the next World Cup, but with the tournament now so close, it is impossible to imagine that the Argentina captain will call time on his career before 2026. He has made a success of his move to MLS with Inter Miami, and the next two years will all be about preparing for his proverbial “Last Dance” at the World Cup.

In many ways, it would be the perfect stage for the curtain call on his incredible career. After so many years of near misses and international failure with Argentina, Messi has tasted success in his past three tournaments with La Albiceleste, and they will be one of the favourites at the next World Cup.

Just like Spain, Argentina have emerging talent such as Alejandro Garnacho (20) and Valentin Carboni (19) while Enzo Fernández is still only 23, but the bulk of Lionel Scaloni’s squad are approaching the tail-end of their careers, so retaining the World Cup will be tough. Yet there is no way that Messi will pass up the opportunity to take on that challenge.

Yamal, Endrick and Musiala take the World Cup by storm

This summer showed us that a new wave of superstar talent is ready to have a huge impact at the next World Cup. Though Messi and Ronaldo are both likely to still be around in two years, and Real Madrid and France forward Kylian Mbappé should be approaching his peak at the age of 27 in 2026, there’s a whole generation keen to take over.

Spain duo Lamine Yamal and Pedri, Brazil forward Endrick (17) and Germany playmaker Jamal Musiala (21) will be the players to watch, and it could also be the time for Portugal‘s João Neves (19) and France forward Mathys Tel to announce themselves on a global stage. Expect Warren Zaïre-Emery (18) to be a big part of France’s plans at the next World Cup, too.

The USMNT will flop

The United States men’s national team find themselves at yet another fork in the road after a disastrous Copa America campaign in which they were eliminated in the group stage, despite having the advantage of being the host nation (and a slightly gentler group than most).

The tournament flop cost coach Gregg Berhalter his job and the search is underway for a successor, but unless the USSF target a world-class coach, they risk another embarrassing failure in two years. The USMNT can’t afford another group stage humiliation on home soil in 2026, but without an inspirational coach who boasts a track record of success in Europe or South America, this group of players including Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Giovanni Reyna — supposedly the best the U.S. has ever had — will continue to overpromise and underdeliver.

So, U.S. Soccer must try to hire Thomas Tuchel or Mauricio Pochettino, or go again at Jurgen Klopp with an offer he can’t refuse. If not, they risk repeating the mistake they made with Berhalter, by recruiting from within again and failing to grasp the magnitude of the opportunity that presents itself in 2026.

Haaland helps Norway to the knockout stages

One big player who’s been absent from the fun this summer is Erling Haaland. Norway failed to qualify for Euro 2024, but they have too many good players to miss out again in 2026. Martin Odegaard, Julian Ryerson, Sander Berge and Oscar Bobb will be alongside Haaland as Norway attempt to reach the World Cup, giving them a strong chance of qualifying. Once there, Manchester City forward Haaland will be desperate to shine on the biggest stage.

Goal-scoring centre-forwards have been conspicuous by their absence this summer, but Haaland is the best of them all and he will not only help Norway reach the World Cup, but will lead them through the group stage as well.

Canada and Mexico fly the flag for the host nations

Sorry to the USMNT, but having already written off your chances, it’s time to focus on the other two host nations in 2026.

Canada surprised everyone by reaching the semifinals at Copa America and their success under American coach Jesse Marsch was merely another blow for the decision-makers at the USSF, who overlooked the former Leeds United coach after a disappointing 2022 World Cup campaign. Jonathan David impressed with two goals at Copa and Alphonso Davies (who is attracting interest from Real Madrid) will still be around as the key figure in the team — expect Canada to have another good tournament.

Just like the U.S., Mexico had a dismal Copa and a group stage exit, but El Tri will play all of their group games in Mexico and that will have major impact on their prospects. Mexico are a different proposition on a home turf, and they will take advantage of that to get through the group stage and potentially reach the quarterfinals for the first time since hosting the World Cup in 1986.

England will be … tired

You’ve heard it from Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham already: England were “mentally and physically exhausted” during Euro 2024. It’s the same story after every tournament, and it will be no different in 2026. That’s simply the price of the ticket when it comes to England. They always go into a tournament on the back of a season without a winter break, and also having had to play in two domestic cup competitions.

Ironically, Bayern Munich forward Kane and Real Madrid midfielder Bellingham both avoided the unique demands of English football that have hampered the rest of the squad, but it is clear that Gareth Southgate’s players struggled to play to anything like their potential on the way to losing the final against Spain.

England have the players and talent to win a major tournament, but the physical demands of a 48-team World Cup will be too much for the Three Lions to overcome.

Ronaldo fades away on the substitutes’ bench

Cristiano Ronaldo will be 41 by the time the next World Cup comes around, but there is no indication he won’t still be playing for Portugal if they qualify. His Euro 2024 performances — no goals in five games — proved that the former Manchester United and Real Madrid forward is nowhere near the player he once was, but Portugal coach Roberto Martinez refused to drop him from the starting XI to his side’s detriment.

Ronaldo simply has to make way for a younger forward before 2026, but the temptation of being at a World Cup will be too much for him to turn down. The only hope is that Ronaldo takes on the role of impact sub by the time it comes around — and it might just him and Portugal much better.

Brazil keep waiting to end their World Cup drought

Argentina ended a 20-year wait for a South American World Cup winner with victory at Qatar 2022, but the strength of the international game right now is in Europe, meaning it will be tough for Argentina or Brazil to prevent a European nation from winning back the World Cup. All the pressure will be on Brazil in that scenario, because their last success was in 2002 and there is a growing desperation in the country for the five-time world champions to regain their status as football’s strongest nation.

Brazil were woeful at the Copa America, qualifying second from their group with one win and two draws before losing on penalties to Uruguay in the round of 16 after a 0-0 draw. Endrick, Sávio, Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior give Brazil hope when it comes to scoring goals, but that talent was nowhere near enough to win this summer, and there is a real concern in the country that the World Cup will be another huge disappointment.

The days of relying on Neymar — he will be 34 in 2026 — to deliver are long gone, meaning Brazil have big problems to overcome.

Watch out for Venezuela, Georgia and Turkey

This summer also showed us that previously unfancied nations are rapidly improving, and some of them could be surprise teams in 2026.

Venezuela are the only CONMEBOL nation never to qualify for a World Cup, but they made it to the knockout stages of the Copa America and that confidence boost could see them end their long wait and make it to the World Cup in 2026.

Georgia and Turkey were two of the most exciting teams at Euro 2024, and both were backed by passionate supporters in Germany. The former made it to the Round of 16 in their first-ever international tournament before losing to Spain, but Kvicha Kvaratskhelia and his teammates can now build on the Euros and reach the World Cup.

Meanwhile Turkey, set to co-host Euro 2032 with Italy, are an emerging force. Real Madrid’s Arda Güler is their young star, but midfielders Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Ferdi Kadioglu had impressive tournaments and showed the strength of Turkish football.

It will be hot

Remember all the fears about Qatar being too hot to stage a summer World Cup in 2022 before the tournament was moved to the winter? Well the 2026 World Cup will be a summer tournament again, and it will be extremely hot.

At USA ’94, the Republic of Ireland players were forced to wear baseball caps to shield from the sun during the national anthems before losing to Mexico in temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37 degrees Celsius), while at this summer’s Copa America, Guatemalan assistant referee Humberton Panoja collapsed with heatstroke during Canada’s match against Peru in Kansas City as temperatures reached 93 degrees F (34 degrees C).

Heat and humidity will be an issue at all venues — games in Mexico will also be affected by playing at high altitude — and FIFA has said that matches will be schedule to ensure they are “played in the best possible conditions.” It might make for a difficult schedule: with up to six matches per day in the group stage, it is anticipated that games will kick off as early as 1 p.m. ET before wrapping up at 10 p.m.