X factors for college football's top 25 teams
When considering the top teams in college football for the 2024 season, some certainly have a larger margin for error than others. The most talented, deepest teams can overcome flaws, injuries and unforeseen challenges easier than contenders who fall a bit lower in the pecking order.
But what is the one thing that will carry the greatest weight in determining whether the season will be great, good or a disappointment for each team in our post-spring Top 25? We posed that question to our college football reporters.
From newcomers on the field or sideline that teams are counting on to position groups that need to be at their best and areas that need to improve, here are the biggest X factors that could make or break the seasons for each of our Top 25 teams.
Transfer TE Benjamin Yurosek. Quarterback Carson Beck loves throwing to tight ends, and the Bulldogs like to use two-TE sets more than most FBS teams. That won’t be as easy this season with two-time Mackey Award winner Brock Bowers playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. Georgia reloaded its tight ends room with Stanford transfer Yurosek and highly regarded freshmen Jaden Reddell and Colton Heinrich. Yurosek, a graduate transfer, is an intriguing prospect. He had 108 catches for 1,342 yards with five touchdowns in four seasons with the Cardinal. Last season, he was limited to 16 catches for 239 yards with one touchdown and missed the final six games because of a shoulder injury. Stanford’s shaky play at quarterback — it ranked next-to-last in the Pac-12 in QB rating (113.9) and passing touchdowns (11) last season — also didn’t help. Oscar Delp will probably be the starting tight end, and Yurosek’s pass-catching skills and ability to run should get him on the field early and often if he picks up the offense smoothly. — Mark Schlabach
Freshman WR Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State has had an incredible run recently at wide receiver, headlined by first-round NFL draft picks Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes appear to have another future star at the position in Smith, who turned heads during the spring. If Smith lives up to the hype in his debut season, the Buckeyes could boast the nation’s top receiving duo once again in him and preseason All-American Emeka Egbuka. — Jake Trotter
Chemistry. Texas and quarterback Quinn Ewers took a huge leap forward last season on offense, with the Heisman contender leading a pinpoint attack. But the NFL draft showed how much talent the Longhorns lost. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy ran the fastest 40 time in combine history (4.21) and was picked in the first round. Fellow receiver Adonai Mitchell, a Georgia transfer who caught 11 TDs last year, went in the second. Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders (99 catches the past two years) went with the first pick of the fourth round. Combine them with Jordan Whittington (Rams) and Jonathon Brooks, a running back who went in the second round and the Horns lost 76% of their receptions and more than 80% of their receiving yards. As expected, Texas reloaded, including signing transfers Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Silas Bolden (Oregon State) and Matthew Golden (Houston) along with five-star receiving recruit Ryan Wingo. — Dave Wilson
TE Terrance Ferguson. Everyone knows the Ducks are loaded at wide receiver. With Tez Johnson, Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden and others, quarterback Dillon Gabriel will have a slew of options. But Ferguson could be a crucial part of Oregon’s offense because of his ability to be a force in the middle of the field and inside the red zone. The Ducks have the weapons to stretch the field and throw fastballs. Ferguson, who scored six touchdowns last season, could be their changeup. — Paolo Uggetti
Transfer QB Riley Leonard. What exactly do the Irish have in Leonard? Over two seasons at Duke, Leonard looked like a potential first-round NFL pick at times, but an injury ended his 2023 season early and kept him out of spring ball in South Bend. Moreover, Leonard’s overall numbers from 2023 don’t exactly scream superstardom: 57.6% completions, 6.7 yards per throw, 3 touchdown passes and 3 picks. Obviously his upside far exceeds those numbers, but the Irish have invested a lot in luring him from Duke, and it’s fair to wonder whether even a repeat of fellow ACC transfer Sam Hartman’s performance from 2023 would be enough to lift Notre Dame’s offense to something approaching playoff caliber. The Irish have new faces at tailback, left tackle and several key receiver spots, so it’s an offense in transition well beyond the QB spot, and until Leonard gets on the field with the rest of those new faces, it’s hard to say what expectations are reasonable. — David Hale
Defensive line. There’s a reason Lane Kiffin is excited about his defensive line. He’s been around and coached against elite defensive lines in the SEC and knows this is the deepest and most talented group of defensive linemen he will put on the field at Ole Miss. Tackle Walter Nolen (Texas A&M) and edge rusher Princely Umanmielen (Florida) are portal additions who are on NFL draft boards. Returning are end Jared Ivey and tackle JJ Pegues, who combined for 19.5 tackles for loss last season, along with massive 6-7, 335-pound tackle Zxavian Harris, senior tackle Akelo Stone and a promising crop of freshmen. One of the things that kept Ole Miss from making the jump from being a really good SEC team to a conference title contender was the lack of a defensive line that could take over games. The Rebels might have that this season. — Chris Low
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack. There was never any question during Nick Saban’s tenure, no matter who had the defensive coordinator’s title, who was running the Alabama defense. It was Saban. Now that Saban has moved on to the TV world, enter Kane Wommack and his base 4-2-5 “swarm” defense, a scheme he learned under his father, Dave, when Kane was a graduate assistant under his dad at Ole Miss in 2012 and 2013. Wommack has had time to tweak his attacking system, which relies heavily on the safeties. Going back to his days as Indiana’s defensive coordinator, when he first crossed paths with new Tide coach Kalen DeBoer, Wommack has consistently gotten the most out of his players. After leaving South Alabama as head coach to take over as Alabama’s DC, he’ll have more talent than he’s ever had to maximize his system. — Low
Running game. Replacing the SEC’s leading rusher is never easy. Cody Schrader is gone after rushing for 1,627 yards a year ago. But sleeping on the Tigers’ running game in 2024 could be a mistake. They brought in two experienced transfer running backs who should complement each other well. Marcus Carroll, who ran for 1,350 yards last season at Georgia State, is more of a bruiser. Nate Noel is elusive and also catches the ball well out of the backfield. He rushed for 834 yards last season at Appalachian State despite battling a leg injury. Defenses that pay too much attention to Brady Cook, Luther Burden III and Missouri’s passing game may find themselves on their heels against the Tigers’ running attack. — Low
TE Brant Kuithe. With Cam Rising returning to the Utes offense for one more (hopefully healthy) season, this will be a crucial year for Utah’s offensive weapons. Kuithe is going to be thrust into the spotlight further after the departure of fellow tight end Dalton Kincaid. Like Rising, Kuithe missed last season with an injury and has been in Salt Lake City since 2018. In all but one season, Kuithe has averaged more than 10 yards per catch and he also has 16 touchdowns to his name. In his final year at Utah, the program may need him to have his best year yet. — Uggetti
WR Tyler Morris. The Wolverines lost go-to receiver Roman Wilson to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second round of the NFL draft. But that could create an opportunity for junior Morris to shine in his spot. Morris showed what he could do with a blistering 38-yard touchdown reception down the sideline in the CFP victory over Alabama. The Wolverines are banking that Morris can give them a lot more plays like that as their new go-to receiver. — Trotter
Running backs. Florida State will look different on offense this year, given all the personnel changes, and perhaps its biggest strength is at running back, where the Seminoles have their best depth in years. Trey Benson might be gone, but Lawrance Toafili and Caziah Holmes are back and the transfer additions of Roydell Williams and Jaylin Lucas will give the Seminoles plenty of options and versatility. Add in a veteran offensive line, led by sixth-year senior Darius Washington, and the Seminoles have the potential to be one of the best rushing teams in the country. — Andrea Adelson
Transfer WR Julian Fleming. The Nittany Lions don’t have a single returning receiver who had more than 20 catches last season. But talented Ohio State transfer Fleming could give Penn State’s receiving corps — and quarterback Drew Allar — a major boost. Fleming was the nation’s No. 1 overall prospect in ESPN’s 2020 recruiting rankings before signing with Ohio State — and he had 79 career receptions over four seasons in Columbus, including six touchdown grabs during the 2022 season. — Trotter
Transfer RB Jordan Waters. Getting the ground game going has been a thorn in Dave Doeren’s side for the past few years at NC State. Last year, four running backs got at least 25 carries, but none more than 100. The team’s leading rusher was quarterback Brennan Armstrong, and receiver KC Concepcion was second on the team. The 2021 and 2022 seasons offered similar struggles. So this year, Doeren dipped into the transfer portal to try to fix the situation with the addition of Jordan Waters from Duke and Hollywood Smothers from Oklahoma. Smothers has ample upside, but Waters has already proven himself on the field during his four seasons with the Blue Devils, including rushing for 819 yards and 12 touchdowns last year. Wolfpack running backs haven’t posted a top-50 yards-per-carry season since 2015 — Doeren’s second season in Raleigh — but this might be their best chance yet to create a balanced attack on offense. — Hale
Wide receivers. Few FBS teams have as much production to replace at wide receiver as the Tigers, who lost NFL first-round draft picks Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. The duo combined for 157 receptions for 2,746 yards with 31 touchdowns in 2023. Senior Kyren Lacy, who started his college career at Louisiana, seems next in line to become WR1. After that, the Tigers will be relying on newcomers CJ Daniels (Liberty) and Zavion Thomas (Mississippi State), as well as largely unproven returning receivers Chris Hilton Jr. and Aaron Anderson. Thomas, who will compete with Anderson for the slot receiver spot, has the potential to be one of the most explosive players in the FBS. He averaged 12.4 yards every time he touched the ball last season. He returned the opening kickoff 94 yards for a score in a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. He has top-end speed to beat secondaries over the top. He should be even better in a much more efficient LSU offense. — Schlabach
DT Bryson Eason. The Volunteers figure to have one of the better defensive lines in the SEC in 2024 with James Pearce Jr., Elijah Simmons, Omari Thomas, Omarr Norman-Lott and others coming back. One player that teammates and coaches have raved about since spring practice is senior Eason. The Memphis native arrived at UT as an oversized inside linebacker. He moved to defensive end and kept growing. Defensive line coach Rodney Garner has helped transform Eason into an interior lineman, and Eason had a career-high 27 tackles, 4 quarterback hurries and 5 tackles for loss in 13 games in 2023. Now 6-foot-3 and 303 pounds, Garner says Eason is just scratching the surface of the player he can be. He could be more than a complementary player to the Vols’ more established pass-rushers. — Schlabach
The freshman receivers. It’s no secret Clemson has struggled to develop receivers in recent years. Highly ranked prospects like Joe Ngata, Frank Ladson Jr., E.J. Williams Jr., Ajou Ajou, Beaux Collins and Dacari Collins have come and gone without blossoming into stars (or, in several cases, contributing virtually nothing at all). On the other hand, freshmen have largely led the way — Collins in 2021, Antonio Williams in 2022 and Tyler Brown last season — though their development hit a wall after that for varying reasons. That certainly hasn’t helped Clemson’s oft-criticized quarterbacks. In 2024, however, there’s a chance to turn that trend around. Brown returns following a strong freshman campaign, and Antonio Williams should be healthy. Troy Stellato and Adam Randall get another shot to prove their value. But the real excitement comes from two freshmen: TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco. Both were ranked as top-50 recruits by ESPN, and Wesco turned heads as an early enrollee, scoring in the Tigers’ spring game. If they make an impact as freshmen, it could be the key to a rejuvenated passing game — and a trip to the College Football Playoff. — Hale
QB Avery Johnson. Replacing Will Howard isn’t a small task, but there is a lot of hope and the potential for big expectations if Johnson is the player many think he can be. He showed flashes as a freshman last season, most recently against NC State in the Pop Tarts Bowl, where he completed 14 of 31 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns, along with 71 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If he meets expectations, there will be a lot of exciting football in Manhattan, Kansas, this year. — Harry Lyles Jr.
That SEC schedule. Tennessee, at Auburn, Texas (in Dallas), South Carolina, at Ole Miss, at Missouri, Alabama, at LSU. Colleague Bill Connelly points out that six of those eight are in the SP+ top 16 and while there is a nonconference game with Maine mixed in there, it just keeps coming when you look down the list. The Sooners won’t be intimidated, but they’ll need the depth to survive a season full of bowl games at the same time they’ll be breaking in a new quarterback (Jackson Arnold). — Wilson
Limiting turnovers. The Cowboys are going to be able to run the ball with Ollie Gordon II and an experienced offensive line and return nine starters on what should be an improved defense. After somewhat of a rotating door at quarterback at the beginning of last season, Alan Bowman, who is back for his seventh college season, returns at the helm. While Bowman was solid last year (3,460 yards, 60.7% completions), he led the Big 12 with 14 interceptions. The difference between this being a good and a great team likely lies on his shoulders and whether he can do a better job of protecting the football. — Lyles
CB Tacario Davis. Davis was one of the Wildcats’ top players on defense last year, totaling 13 tackles, 1 interception and 15 pass deflections at cornerback. But once the season ended and Arizona lost head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, Davis entered the transfer portal and looked to be on his way out. But after going through spring ball with new coach Brent Brennan, Davis took his name out of the portal, giving the program four returning starters in the secondary and bolstering a defense that needs to improve in order to give Arizona a shot at being a force in the Big 12 in its first season in the conference. — Uggetti
QB Kyron Drones. It is hard to call Drones an X-factor since he is the most well-known player on the team. But there is no question what happens with Virginia Tech this year depends on how well Drones plays after a second-half surge in 2023 sent expectations for this season soaring. The Hokies return a whopping 90% of their offensive production from a year ago, and it all starts with Drones, who threw for 2,084 yards and ran for another 818 last year. There is plenty of room for improvement, starting with his completion percentage (58.2%) and efficiency. If he lives up to the hype, Virginia Tech should absolutely be an ACC contender this season. — Adelson
QB Jalon Daniels. You won’t find a more obvious X-factor on this list than Daniels. When he is on the field, he is a Heisman contender and Kansas is one of the most fun teams to watch in all of college football. In three games in 2023, he completed 75% of his passes for 705 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception. When he’s not on the field, well, it’s not quite the same. The Jayhawks need Daniels. — Lyles
OC Tim Lester. The Hawkeyes have a new offensive coordinator in Lester, who spent last year as an analyst for the Green Bay Packers. Before that, he was Western Michigan’s head coach. Lester is charged with reviving an Iowa offense that ranked last in the Big Ten in 2023 in yards (235.4 per game), passing yards (118.6) and points (15.4). Finding a way to generate more chunk plays will be critical for Lester and the Hawkeyes. Iowa produced only 33 plays of 20 yards or more in 2023, last among Power 5 offenses. — Trotter
Receivers. We all know what quarterback Cam Ward is capable of doing, but the big question for Miami is whether he has the receivers who can make the type of big, explosive plays that have been routinely missing from the Hurricanes offense. The early returns say yes. Not only does Miami return Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, Isaiah Horton looks like an emerging star and Houston transfer Sam Brown fits in nicely. In its recent history, Miami has had some nice go-to receivers, but the depth and explosiveness down the field has been missing. That should change for the Hurricanes in 2024. — Adelson
Transfer RB Jo’Quavious Marks. Lincoln Riley has made it almost a tradition now. Every offseason he’s been at USC, he’s gone outside the program to grab at least one veteran running back from the transfer portal, and each year it has paid dividends. This season, it’s Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks, who comes to Los Angeles by way of Mississippi State. Without Caleb Williams under center, the running back role will be even more important for the Trojans, and Marks (more than 3,000 all-purpose yards in four years at MSU) should be a key part of the new-look offense. — Uggetti
