Fantasy baseball: Can Rece Hinds keep the magic going?

Cincinnati Reds OF Rece Hinds hit just .219 over 78 games and 334 plate appearances at Triple-A Louisville this season, so fantasy managers likely paid little attention when injuries to others prompted the Reds to promote him one week prior to the All-Star break. Hinds, 23, is a right-handed slugger with recognized holes in his swing, as he struck out at a 38.3% clip for Louisville, and he has a long history of struggling to make contact.

Well, Hinds made enough loud contact in his first week with the Reds to make him the most-added player in ESPN standard leagues, as everyone notices a .423 batting average, with 5 home runs, 11 RBIs and 2 stolen bases over a player’s first seven big league games. Hinds whacked a 449-foot homer in his debut, and his five extra-base hits over his first two games broke an MLB record. He stole bases in his third and fourth games before hitting a grand slam in game No. 5.

OK, so he achieved all these impressive numbers versus mediocre Colorado Rockies and Miami Marlins pitching in the hitter’s haven of Cincinnati, striking out in 25% of his PA while drawing only one walk. Still, we must be interested to see what happens this weekend at Washington (where he should face at least one left-handed starter) and next week in Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

Nobody hits .423 for long, of course, so fantasy managers must be realistic here, but we have known for a while that Hinds is capable of big numbers. A second-round pick in the 2019 amateur draft, Hinds is 6-foot-4 and loaded with raw power, but he has been streaky in the minors. He hit .269 with 23 homers, 97 RBIs and 20 steals at Double-A Chattanooga of the Southern League last season, but the splits tell a story. He hit just .255 with 6% walk and 41% strikeout rates in the first half before improving to .289 with 10% walk and 29% strikeout rates in the second half. Not only that, but Hinds was a perfect 11-for-11 on SB attempts in the second half.

The Reds probably did not envision Hinds playing a notable role for them this season and, who knows, it might not happen. We have only one week of numbers, and Nationals, Braves and Rays pitchers all figure to attack him differently than Rockies and Marlins pitchers did. Based on his approach and history. Hinds will likely struggle to hit for average, but that isn’t such a big deal anymore. The bar of acceptance is lower than it has ever been for roto managers. In points leagues, well, we can overlook a 30% strikeout rate if it comes with difference-making power and occasional stolen bases.

Things often change quickly with debuting players. Look at Cleveland Guardians 2B/3B/SS/OF Angel Martinez — a versatile, contact-oriented switch-hitter who earned his second promotion on July 4, delivering eight hits and eight walks over his first eight games, while also scoring five runs. His second week didn’t go as well. Martinez offers negligible power, however, so if he isn’t drawing walks and scoring runs, you can ignore him. Fantasy managers should always look past the typical numbers like home runs and batting average and study a player’s skills.

Everyone should reasonably take a look at Hinds, knowing that he offers an intriguing combination of power and speed, albeit with risk. Don’t drop a potential top-100 player to get him, such as injured Cubs OF/1B Cody Bellinger, Rays OF Josh Lowe, Padres rookie SS/OF Jackson Merrill or Nationals OFs Lane Thomas and James Wood — all of these players being among the most-dropped OFs in ESPN standard. Just be sure to realize that there is potential upside as well, even as his numbers will obviously regress.

Sunday hat tricks

Oakland Athletics OF Lawrence Butler and Colorado Rockies 1B/OF Michael Toglia both left fantasy managers with quite the impression, hammering three home runs apiece on the final day prior to the All-Star break. Butler bashed a trio of two-run homers in Philadelphia, doing so as the leadoff hitter, although none came off notable pitchers. He boasts five of his nine home runs for the season (193 PA) over the past six games (with 13 RBIs), but still has little track record for power or plate discipline.

Toglia, meanwhile, has been showing off his power all season, as he leads the Rockies with 16 home runs. Unfortunately, his .197 batting average is kind of a bummer. At 6-5, the organization’s 2019 first-round pick has always flashed power along with an inability to make consistent contact. Still, real power matters in fantasy leagues, and Toglia is averaging 2.7 ESPN fantasy points per game over the past 30 days, second on the Rockies to emerging OF Brenton Doyle. Toglia is not a Coors Field creation either, as 10 of his home runs have come on the road.

Add Hinds first for the upside, but Toglia matters, too.

On the mound

Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Yilber Diaz debuted last week and delivered a pair of six-inning, one-run outings at home against the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays, earning the win in the second game. Diaz, 23, began this season at Double-A Amarillo, missing plenty of overwhelmed bats with his fastball/slider combination, before making four starts at Triple-A Reno — the final one being a dominating performance against Sacramento in which he permitted nary a base hit over six shutout innings, striking out 13. That was enough to earn him his promotion.

Diaz is not one of the top pitching prospects in the sport whom analysts have discussed all season. That’s why, much like Hinds, a fantasy manager might think his impressive start in the big leagues is due for regression. This is fair. Judge each prospect individually. Diaz might need work on his third pitch, a curveball he has barely used, but Arizona’s schedule is favorable for pitchers over the rest of the month (Cubs, Royals, Pirates, Nationals).

Do not add Diaz over Cubs RHP Jameson Taillon or Rays RHP Taj Bradley, but there might be something good here.