WNBA predictions: What will happen once the 2024 season resumes

To paraphrase the old saying, we make predictions and the basketball gods laugh.

WNBA teams’ fortunes can turn quickly — for the worse due to injuries or a tough stretch of the schedule; or for the better after injured players return or something finally clicks for groups.

With just 12 teams in the league, there is talent everywhere. And for the most part, tanking has not been an issue like with other sports. You can expect to see teams play hard until the end of the regular season on Sept. 19, then the top eight move on to try to win the championship.

Can the Las Vegas Aces still three-peat? Can anyone challenge A’ja Wilson as MVP? Will the Rookie of the Year race stay tight? Here are 10 predictions from Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel for the rest of the WNBA season, which resumes Aug. 15, after the Olympic break.

Only the defunct Houston Comets won at least three WNBA titles in a row; they took the first four championships in league history (1997 to 2000). Last season, Las Vegas became the first to win back-to-back titles since the Los Angeles Sparks in 2001 and 2002.

The Aces have had more ups and downs this season, largely because of point guard Chelsea Gray‘s late start due to injury. But they are still the favorites, as long as they’re healthy. Their talent — four U.S. Olympians in the starting lineup — is matched by their experience playing together. And it’s so difficult to win a playoff series against them, either in an early-round best-of-three or the best-of-five semifinals and WNBA Finals. — Voepel

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The Indiana Fever will make it back to the playoffs

The Fever have had a lot of bad luck — and a few bad decisions — with personnel and the draft since last making the postseason in 2016. But back-to-back No. 1 picks Aliyah Boston and Caitlin Clark have been home runs. We’ve seen strong growth from them individually — and from the Fever as a whole — since a challenging 1-8 start to the season. Another lottery pick in Kelsey Mitchell (No. 2 in 2018) now has enough talent around her to help her make a first playoff appearance. The Fever should benefit from the Olympic break too, especially with Clark — who has been playing nonstop since the start of her senior college season at Iowa — getting some rest. — Voepel

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The Los Angeles Sparks will end up with the best odds for the No. 1 pick

This already was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Sparks, who selected Cameron Brink (No. 2) and Rickea Jackson (No. 4) in the 2024 lottery. Los Angeles is more likely to miss the playoffs than make a late second-half run, which shouldn’t be a huge disappointment given the level of college talent that could be WNBA-bound next year, including former national player of the year Paige Bueckers.

Lottery odds are determined by teams’ cumulative two-year records, meaning the Sparks and the Washington Mystics currently look like they’ll end up with the best chances of landing the top pick. But Washington has a higher post-Olympic ceiling, assuming Brittney Sykes, Shakira Austin and Karlie Samuelson all return from injury. Plus, the Sparks finished two games behind the Mystics last season. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles gets the first opportunity to draft Bueckers next spring. — Philippou

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Caitlin Clark will win a Rookie of Year race that goes to the wire with Angel Reese

Clark and the Chicago Sky‘s Reese already have had exceptional first seasons and done historical things for rookies. Reese’s streak of 15 double-doubles is the longest by any WNBA player, not just a rookie. Clark, meanwhile, has recorded the first triple-double by a rookie. Each has helped position her team for a playoff spot.

When it comes to the Rookie of the Year race, though, it is challenging to compare them. Statistically, they play entirely different positions: Clark is a point guard, and Reese is a power forward. Clark has the responsibility of initiating offense, which will weigh more heavily with some voters. That said, guards — particularly point guards — traditionally have been undervalued for WNBA individual awards (see: Sue Bird). Others will point to Reese’s consistent production despite all the physical play in the paint. This is likely to be a race to the finish. For me, the edge right now goes to Clark, but both have made good cases and will continue to do so. — Voepel

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This could be the last year we see key players on their current teams

Free agency always can take twists and turns, and results at the end of a season might factor into players’ decisions on where they want to play the next year. Big names such as Breanna Stewart, Nneka Ogwumike and Brittney Griner will hit free agency after this year, although all seem happy in their current spots. So, perhaps the real movement will be elsewhere.

This is the final year under contract for the Connecticut Sun‘s core of Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones, and they have spoken openly about their championship window closing. Satou Sabally signed a one-year deal with the Dallas Wings this past offseason, but she has yet to suit up this summer due to a shoulder injury. Could Sabally seek to continue her career elsewhere? And what might come of Courtney Vandersloot? The point guard has seen a reduced role this season with the New York Liberty as compared to last year, due to the growth of Sabrina Ionescu and the team’s improved depth on the perimeter. The Liberty will ultimately have to determine whether Vandersloot still fits into their vision for the franchise’s first championship. — Philippou

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A’ja Wilson will be a unanimous pick for MVP

Cynthia Cooper received every first-place vote for the first WNBA MVP award in 1997. Other winners have come as close as one vote short of unanimous, most recently Jonquel Jones in 2021. Wilson, however, could sweep the first-place votes this year. She is playing at such a high level — first in the league in scoring and blocks, second in rebounding — it’s hard to see how anyone wouldn’t pick her. That said, last year one voter gave Wilson an absurd fourth-place vote in an MVP race that was so close between Breanna Stewart, Alyssa Thomas and Wilson, who ultimately came in third. Wilson seems to have been motivated by that: She was the 2023 WNBA Finals MVP, and she is playing at an even higher level this season. — Voepel

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The Minnesota Lynx will make it to the WNBA Finals

The Commissioner’s Cup champions have an opportunity to compete for another — well, the real — championship. Many weren’t sure what to expect of the Lynx after they didn’t have the splashiest of offseasons. But new additions Alanna Smith, Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman have been perfect fits to pair alongside first-team All-WNBA selection Napheesa Collier and All-Star Kayla McBride. The team’s strong chemistry manifests on both ends of the floor: With Collier in the lineup, Minnesota boasts the league’s best defensive rating (92.2), top assist rate (79.2%) and highest 3-point rate (39.3%). The combination, catalyzed by the star power of Collier, is enough for the Lynx to return to the Finals for the first time since 2017, when they last won it all after also taking the crown in 2011, 2013 and 2015. — Philippou

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There will be a first-round playoff upset

The WNBA returned to an all-series format for the postseason in 2022, after having had the first and second rounds be single elimination from 2016 to 2021.

In 2022 and 2023, the top four seeds advanced in the best-of-three first round to the best-of-five semifinals. But this season, at least one of the Nos. 5-8 seeds could pull an upset and make it to the semis. We’ve seen supposed top-tier teams be defeated in what felt like upsets during the regular season. And though the stakes are higher, of course, in the playoffs, the first round’s shorter series format lends itself to upsets more than the later rounds, including the WNBA Finals. — Voepel

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The Atlanta Dream will miss the playoffs

The Dream had an intriguing offseason, signing WNBA legend Tina Charles and trading for Jordin Canada. But excitement over what the team could look like and how it could build upon last season’s playoff run has cooled. At 7-17, Atlanta is ninth in the league standings — three games back of seventh-place Indiana and eighth-place Chicago — after losing its final eight games before the Olympic break. The Dream desperately have missed Rhyne Howard (limited to 14 games because of a left ankle injury) and Canada (limited to four games, broken right finger). Atlanta’s offense, in particular, has languished with both out, as its offensive rating of 94.1 points per 100 possessions is the worst in the league. Howard came back for the final game prior to the break. But even if Canada returns in August, the Dream face an upward battle to make up ground and surpass the two playoff-hungry teams ahead of them. — Philippou

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There will be at least one first-time first-team All-WNBA pick

MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson is a shoo-in for the All-WNBA first team. But several first-timers could join her on the exclusive list. Take Kahleah Copper, who is shining in her first year with the Phoenix Mercury by averaging 23.2 points per game (second most in the league) on 45.2% shooting. Dearica Hamby (19.2 points and 10.0 rebounds per game) also should be in the conversation, despite the Sparks’ struggles. And while Sabrina Ionescu has been a second-team pick each of the past two seasons, this could be the year she breaks through to the first team behind her career-best 19.8 points and 6.1 assists per game. — Philippou