The eight players most likely to be moved at the deadline
While it has been relatively quiet on the trade front so far this season, the baseball world is certain to be shaken up by significant transactions over the next six days.
Yes, Major League Baseball’s annual trade deadline arrives on Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, and you can be sure that several prominent names will be moved between now and then. Taking last year alone as our example, a full 40 trades were completed in the final three days leading up to the deadline, including 27 on the final day itself.
For fantasy baseball managers, this represents arguably the final time on our in-season calendars where change can influence the market. Long-time players in “only” leagues (AL- or NL-only universes) can attest to this, often hoarding huge amounts of free-agent resources to acquire players traded across leagues, but even in mixed leagues, deadline trades can often create new opportunities for — and sometimes even take them from — players.
It’s a time to be most vigilant on the free-agent wire, as after this, the biggest movers and shakers are likely to be late-season prospects getting September cups of coffee (see: Masyn Winn, Evan Carter or Austin Wells last year).
So what’s likely to happen over these next six days? Fantasy managers certainly hope for deadline trade success stories, such as Nick Castellanos in 2019 (.321/.356/.646, 14 homers for the Chicago Cubs) or Max Scherzer in 2021 (1.98 ERA and 89 K’s in 11 starts for the Los Angeles Dodgers), while avoiding post-trade disaster tales, such as Trey Mancini (.176/.258/.364 rates for the Houston Astros) or Frankie Montas (6.35 ERA in eight starts for the New York Yankees) in 2022. It’s proof positive that anything can unfold for any player who ultimately switches teams.
The following eight players — all of them plenty fantasy-relevant — shape up as among the most likely to be moved at or before the deadline. Here’s a quick synopsis of what to expect from each of them following that eventual move, along with a dream destination (among the realistic ones) for the player and what else around him might be affected by the deal.
Jack Flaherty, SP, Detroit Tigers: The top-50 overall scoring player I most anticipate will be traded, Flaherty has already been moved once at the deadline, in 2023, when he was an unmitigated disaster for the Baltimore Orioles down the stretch (6.75 ERA and a September demotion to the bullpen). He’s a much better pitcher today, however, having scrapped what was an ineffective cutter, plus tweaked the command of his slider to the point that it has a 39% whiff rate, his best since 2021. Flaherty’s durability is a greater question than his skill set, and there aren’t many theorized destinations that would take him off the fantasy map. He’s a locked-in, top-30 positional option wherever he finishes 2024.
Dream destination: Orioles. It’s unlikely to happen again, but the Orioles present that ideal combination of both run and bullpen support, along with a pitcher-friendly home. That said, the Astros and Dodgers also qualify as strong landing spots.
Luis Robert Jr., OF, Chicago White Sox: He has struggled to repeat his breakthrough 2023 numbers, though that’s largely due to his having missed 53 games due to a hip flexor strain. Robert’s 162-game pace for when has has been active is 36 home runs and 40 stolen bases, underscoring his immense rotisserie scoring potential. He seems like the kind of player who could sorely use a change of scenery, and several teams (Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies) are in need of outfield help.
Dream destination: Phillies. Imagine Robert hitting cleanup, behind Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, with half of his games coming at HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park? Robert would be an “all in” FAB target as a league-crosser landing in Philadelphia.
Tanner Scott, RP, Miami Marlins: Despite a bumpy spring training and his team’s miserable start to 2024, he has quietly been one of the game’s most productive relief pitchers. Scott, an impending free agent, has scored the 12th-most RP fantasy points (excluding relief-eligible starters), and he’s riding a 14-appearance scoreless streak in which opponents have hit .087 against him. The primary worry about him being on the trade market — and he’s a near-lock to be moved — is that he’d slot into a setup role elsewhere. Remember, ESPN standard leagues award two points per hold and five per save, which helps. As for who might close if/when Scott departs? A.J. Puk has 12 consecutive scoreless appearances and has the most intriguing skill set among prospective candidates.
Dream destination: Kansas City Royals. They’re one of the few teams on which Scott would be the clearly most skilled option to close, and they’ve got a strong infield defense, which would help boost the odds for a pitcher with his 50.2% career ground-ball rate. The Phillies would also be a solid landing spot.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF, Marlins: Escaping Marlins Park’s spacious dimensions might elevate his fantasy profile more than anyone else on this list. Chisholm is on track for the healthiest season of his five-year career and, in it, he has a .334 wOBA on the road but only .302 at home. He might also slide into second base more regularly elsewhere, an additional boon to his fantasy managers.
Dream destination: Yankees. Chisholm has pulled the ball 46.2% of the time in his career, and that’s the kind of stroke that would fit Yankee Stadium’s confines well. He’d also presumably handle either second or third base there.
Garrett Crochet, SP, White Sox: A much-rumored trade chip, he brings concerns about his seasonal workload since his 107 1/3 frames to date are already more than he had in his entire professional career entering 2024 (85 1/3). However, for now, he continues to perform at a high level. Chances are that any acquiring team will likely cap his innings, perhaps in the 150 range, though the benefits of a stronger supporting cast would at least improve his fantasy prospects in that event.
Dream destination: Dodgers. They’ve been the masters of managing pitching workloads, building in extra rest days and using the IL and Triple-A shuttle numerous times over the past half-decade. The Dodgers would also give Crochet a stark contrast in terms of both run and bullpen support, meaning that any starts he has left in the tank — let’s say, eight? — could remain high-level for our purposes.
Brent Rooker, OF, Oakland Athletics: Besides the weak supporting cast, he calls one of the most pitcher-friendly environments his home, meaning any prospective move would be a boon to the underrated, 29-year-old slugger. In his two seasons with the Athletics, he has hit 22 homers at home, but 30 on the road.
Dream destination: Phillies. Hey, they don’t care about defense anyway, right? But seriously, Rooker would be a nice “consolation prize” if the Phillies can’t land Robert, as the park factors are in stark contrast between Oakland and Philadelphia.
Elias Diaz, C, Colorado Rockies: Fantasy managers are keeping their fingers tightly crossed that he’ll stay put beyond the deadline, though as an impending free agent, Diaz is among the most likely players to be traded within the next week. He’s more of a defensive-minded player, though Coors has made him much more relevant for our purposes, as he’s a .280/.327/.461 hitter at home in his five years with the Rockies, compared to only .229/.289/.356 everywhere else.
Dream destination: No trade. The Yankees at least could grant Diaz a similarly large amount of playing time compared to his current arrangement, plus a ballpark that’s at least hitter-friendly, but almost anywhere he might land would render him as a middling No. 2 catcher in two-catcher leagues, at best.
Carlos Estevez, RP, Los Angeles Angels: Another sneaky-good closer, his 456 fantasy points since the beginning of last season rank 13th among pure relief pitchers. Estevez is in a similar position to Scott, however, as he is in danger of landing elsewhere in a setup role rather than maintaining his current closer gig. He’s on quite the hot streak, though, with his 17 consecutive scoreless appearances resulting in 12 saves.
Dream destination: No trade. The Angels lack much in the way of ninth-inning alternatives, with Ben Joyce as the most logical future option in the final frame. The Royals and Phillies, as was true with Scott, would be the softest landing spots if Estevez is dealt.
