Team USA's biggest threat, surprise teams, top players: Top group phase questions
All 12 teams have now played two group stage games at the 2024 Olympics, and one thing looks clear: Team USA remains on track for a fifth straight gold medal in men’s basketball.
Led by Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and LeBron James, Team USA has secured double-digit wins over Serbia and South Sudan. The Americans will wrap up Group C play against Puerto Rico on Saturday having already booked a spot in Tuesday’s quarterfinals. Three other contenders (France, Germany and Canada) also are moving on, but top teams such as Serbia and Australia still have work to do if they want to advance to the knockout rounds.
Several NBA stars outside of Team USA are making a big impact so far in group play. NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama has come up huge for a French squad aiming for Olympic glory on home soil, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up some lofty numbers despite Greece likely facing an early exit.
From the surprise teams and disappointments to the tournament’s top players, here’s what has stood out to our NBA insiders from Olympic competition so far.
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1. Team USA’s starting lineup (and sixth man) should be ___ .
Kendra Andrews: Curry, James, Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, with Durant as the sixth man. Team USA coach Steve Kerr has said how he plans to continuously change his starting lineup depending on its opponent. Curry, James and Davis should be starters no matter what, and Kerr can adjust from there. If you’re going to settle on one lineup, however, Booker and Holiday should round out the group. Holiday’s defense stabilizes the group, while Booker adds more shooting. Durant, as tremendous as he has been, gives the U.S. a punch off of the bench that no other team can match. It also gives Durant a little cushion as he bounces back from his calf injury — though it doesn’t appear that he needs it.
Marc J. Spears: I like Davis in the starting five at center. He has played consistently the entire tournament, his athleticism and skill set fit international ball well, and he enjoys it. Curry and James definitely belong, with Booker in as a shooter and defender. For Saturday’s group stage finale against Puerto Rico, why not try Durant as a starter to see how it looks? Without the calf injury, I assume he would’ve been starting. Then try Anthony Edwards as the sixth man.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Holiday, Curry, Booker, James and Davis — and Durant should continue in the sixth-man role. Even though Kerr switched things up against South Sudan from the Americans’ win over Serbia — starting Jayson Tatum instead of Holiday — Team USA will need Holiday to open games with his elite defense on the best opposing guard. Davis has simply been a better fit than Joel Embiid with this international style of play on both ends of the floor. Its best starting five from a talent perspective would include Durant, but having him provide his instant scoring off the bench is such a massive advantage.
Jamal Collier: Curry, James and Davis — with Durant as the sixth man — should be locks. But I like the idea of Team USA being able to mix things up with the last two slots depending on matchups. Holiday and Derrick White are versatile and can be inserted against whomever, with Embiid, Booker and Tatum all top candidates off the bench as the games progress.
Andrew Lopez: Curry, James and Davis seem like nonnegotiables at this point. Durant staying as the sixth man seems viable as he works his way back from his calf injury. It might seem like a cop-out, but it works if Kerr continues to rotate the remaining starters based on the opponent. Holiday getting one of the other spots as a defender fits. Need size? Go with Embiid at the 5 and Davis at the 4. Need shooting? Go with Booker and slide James up to the 4.
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What to make of Joel Embiid sitting for USA vs. South Sudan
Brian Windhorst details what Steve Kerr had to say about Joel Embiid not playing for the U.S. men’s basketball team against South Sudan.
2. What has been the biggest surprise of group stage play so far?
Youngmisuk: Embiid’s struggles and lack of impact. He did not play against South Sudan and saw just 11 minutes of action (with four points and two rebounds) against Serbia. Perhaps Embiid, who was ill last week and had been hobbled by a knee injury for part of the NBA season, still isn’t 100 percent healthy. Perhaps his game isn’t as suited for international play as we might have thought. Embiid still could be a factor against a Wembanyama-Rudy Gobert front line if Team USA were to play France in the knockout stage. But at this point, Davis and Bam Adebayo have been the better bigs for the Americans.
Spears: I thought France would be much better with Wembanyama, Gobert and that team’s other NBA players. It looked average against Brazil and should have lost to Japan on Tuesday. It’s been an embarrassing start for the home country. Friday’s Group B clash against Germany will reveal a lot about the hosts. Can France get Tony Parker out of retirement to play point guard?
Lopez: How Japan almost pulled off the upset of these Olympics against France on Tuesday. If not for a spectacular four-point play by Matthew Strazel to send the game into overtime, the French squad would have suffered a tough defeat. Les Bleus have two 7-footers in Wembanyama and Gobert, while the tallest player on Japan’s squad is U.S.-born Josh Hawkinson at 6-foot-10. Japan’s leading scorer, Rui Hachimura, didn’t play the majority of the fourth quarter after being ejected — and the French team still struggled. Wembanyama took over in overtime, but it was almost a disaster for a team that is eyeing an Olympic medal on home soil.
Andrews: The respect South Sudan is garnering has been incredibly fun to watch. It almost stole a game from Team USA in a pre-Olympic exhibition then beat Puerto Rico to open up Group C play for a historic first Olympic win. And while the incorrect national anthem was played in South Sudan’s opener, fans are now chanting the names of its players throughout the arena. It plays Serbia on Saturday for a chance at second place in Group C, and South Sudan still can advance as one of the best third-place teams. Heading into the Olympics, it was impossible to predict that a team that just got its first indoor basketball facility would receive such worldwide attention.
Collier: It has been unexpected fun seeing South Sudan, a nation that gained its independence in 2011, get to this stage and compete. The U.S. team that looked dominant against Serbia found itself in a relatively tight battle against South Sudan in Wednesday’s win, providing the group stage with an unlikely underdog. Bonus points for seeing the role former NBA star Luol Deng, who serves as president of the country’s basketball federation, has played in South Sudan’s rise.
3. Who’ll be biggest threat to Team USA’s gold medal quest?
Lopez: As good as Canada, Germany and France — the other 2-0 teams in group play — have been, it still feels like the only thing that can stop the Americans from winning a fifth consecutive gold medal is themselves. This is one of the deepest and most versatile Team USA squads we’ve seen. When the U.S. turns it on, it’s hard to find any combination of talent assembled at these Olympic Games that can stop it.
Andrews: It appears to be themselves at times. There were some incredibly close games through the Americans’ exhibition schedule, and a few subpar stretches so far in group play have allowed opponents to be more in the game than they should be. It’s not just because their foes are taking them out of the game but more so because the U.S. takes its foot off of the gas. It hasn’t proved costly so far, but it could be more problematic as the Americans head into the knockout stage.
Collier: France has Wembanyama, and Canada is still a real threat with the duo of Jamal Murray and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The U.S. has been rolling so far; when playing at its best, no other team seems capable of slowing it down. I expect the U.S. will still be tested in at least one game during this competition.
Youngmisuk: Yes, France struggled with Japan in Tuesday’s overtime classic. But if the U.S. were to face France in a knockout game in Paris, then Wembanyama and Gobert would have the entire country rooting for an upset. Those two can clog up the paint, and if the Americans go cold from the outside, anything can happen. And in FIBA and the Olympics, so many other factors — such as officiating — can come into play that can work against Team USA.
Spears: Its bus or the subway breaking down on the way to the arena. Canada has the only shot.
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Chiney shouts out Wemby’s clutch performance vs. Japan
Chiney Ogwumike praises Victor Wembanyama for his clutch performance in France’s OT win over Japan.
4. Which player outside of Team USA has had the best showing?
Collier: Give credit to Antetokounmpo, who is once again putting up MVP-worthy performances for Greece, only to be let down by his teammates. Greece is winless in Olympic play so far, but it’s not for lack of trying from Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 30.5 points and eight rebounds. He carried Greece to earn a spot here and took great pride in being a flag-bearer for his country at the opening ceremony.
Youngmisuk: Apologies to Antetokounmpo, but Gilgeous-Alexander had Canada off to a 2-0 start, averaging 18.5 points, 5.0 assists and 4.5 rebounds to go with 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks on the defensive end. The Oklahoma City Thunder star is shooting 65% from the field and has Canada through to the quarterfinals despite an undersized front line and Murray struggling (13 points and shooting a combined 4-for-13 in his first two games).
Andrews: Despite France struggling against Japan, Wembanyama’s impact has been tremendous. After a quiet performance in regulation, he started the overtime period against Japan on an 8-0 run, propelling his team to victory. And in his first game, against Brazil, he was a menace, scoring 19 points — 14 in the first half — with nine rebounds, four steals and three blocks. After Wembanyama dominated in his rookie season in the NBA, it’s easy to see how his play transitions to the international game. And the way in which France has incorporated Wembanyama has propelled him to a great start.
Spears: Japan’s Yuki Togashi. Going against the Olympic Games’ tallest competitor in Wembanyama, the 5-foot-4 guard and shortest men’s basketball player at the competition tossed the ball between the legs of the 7-foot-4 French star for a pass — and it worked. Respect!
Lopez: The usual suspects — Nikola Jokic, Wembanyama and Antetokounmpo — have been great, but RJ Barrett has really shined for Canada through a pair of group stage victories. Barrett is the second-leading scorer at these Summer Games behind Antetokounmpo and has been key for a Canada squad that has defeated Greece and Australia. Barrett is averaging 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists while hitting 59.3% of his shots.
5. What is the most anticipated game remaining?
Spears: Saturday’s South Sudan-Serbia matchup. While Serbia is certainly the favorite, South Sudan is capable of challenging. If South Sudan prevails, it will be a tremendous victory for all of Africa, as no African team has made the final eight in Olympic men’s basketball.
Collier: Germany-France on Saturday is going to be must-see. The 2023 FIBA World Cup winner vs. the host nation, with both teams posing a threat to win medals and eventually challenge Team USA.
Andrews: Germany-France was already one of the most anticipated contests heading into these Olympics, and it now is the only remaining game in pool play between two teams aiming to medal. That both have advanced to the quarterfinals and are fighting for the top position in Group B adds more excitement.
Lopez: What also adds to the Germany-France intrigue is that the winner will likely avoid Team USA until a potential gold medal game. Germany has earned double-digit wins in its first two games, but France might have been scared straight by the Japan outcome. It could be the best game of the group stage.
Youngmisuk: The number of notable NBA players and matchups on the court during the Germany-France tilt will be fascinating to watch. How will the Germany duo of Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner attack France’s front line with Wembanyama and Gobert? Can Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner get under the skin of the French big men down low? One thing is for sure: France will have to play better than it did against Japan.
