UFC 308 first look: Big questions on Topuria-Holloway, Chimaev's return, more
Ilia Topuria seized the moment at UFC 298 when he faced one of the featherweight GOATs, Alexander Volkanovski. Topuria dethroned Volkanovski in February and became the 145-pound champion. Eight months later, Topuria will now take on arguably the other featherweight GOAT, as Max Holloway will look to regain his title at UFC 308 on Oct. 28 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Topuria and Holloway will face each other in the main event of what looks to be an impressive card on Fight Island. The co-main event will be a rebooking of Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight showdown that could have title shot implications. Their fight was canceled earlier this summer due to a Chimaev illness.
Other fights on the UFC 308 card include Ciryl Gane versus Alexander Volkov in a heavyweight bout and Magomed Ankalaev facing Aleksandar Rakic at light heavyweight.
Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim offer their first thoughts, analysis and predictions on UFC 308.
Fill in the blank: UFC 308 will be ________.
Okamoto: Deep. Some UFC PPVs are built on one or two fights, and some are built on the sum of their parts. UFC 308 has some of both. The main and co-main events are two of the top fights the UFC can make. However, to also add a former interim champion in Ciryl Gane to the card, Ankalaev (who everyone assumed was getting the next title shot) and an important featherweight bout between Lerone Murphy and Dan Ige? If this card stays together, it’s got a lot of great parts top to bottom.
Hale: to determine if Topuria and Chimaev are for real. The future of the featherweight and middleweight divisions will be decided on Fight Island. Both Topuria and Chimaev will be facing former champions of their division, who are coming off excellent performances. To cement their status as “the future,” they must emerge victorious. If they don’t, they may end up as referential names, recognized as a hype machine (Chimaev) or transitional champion (Topuria). Neither can afford to fail.
Wagenheim: An unexpected throwback. After Holloway lost for a third time to then-UFC featherweight champion Volkanovski two summers ago, it appeared “Blessed” was finished as a title contender. The same could have been said of Whittaker in February 2022, following his second middleweight title bout loss to Israel Adesanya. But here they both are, right back near the top of the mountain. While there’s a new crop of younger fighters now at the elite level of MMA, Holloway and Whittaker represent a starry era that will (thankfully) not fade into the sunset. I fully expect one of them to walk out of the cage in October with the belt they once owned and the other to stake his place one step away from reclaiming gold.
What will determine how Topuria-Holloway plays out?
Wagenheim: Aggression vs. fortitude. The champ, Topuria, is aggressive. The former champ, Holloway, does not back down from anyone. So we’re guaranteed to see a collision, which likely favors the hard-hitting Topuria. But is he a harder hitter than Justin Gaethje, who landed more than 100 significant strikes on Holloway yet ended up being the one face-down in the center of the Octagon at UFC 300? Holloway has the striking accuracy and footwork to frustrate Topuria and dupe him into making poor decisions. If that happens, Holloway will style on him, and it will be a show.
Okamoto: Defense. This fight might be defined not by the shots that land, but by the ones that miss. You just don’t want to get hit by Topuria at 145 pounds, man. The “getting hit” narrative always comes up for Holloway, because he’s taken a lot of damage throughout his career, and it will come up again. Topuria does not need much to knock an opponent out. Holloway’s career striking defense is 59 percent. However, he was sharp in his last fight against Gaethje, allowing only 51 percent of strikes to get through. If Holloway can get going early, as he did against Gaethje, and avoid eating shots, he’s very tough to deal with over five rounds.
Hale: Holloway’s striking and craftsmanship. Topuria looked stellar against Volkanovski, but there were plenty of questions about Volkanovski when their fight was announced. From the wear and tear of facing Islam Makhachev twice, to the short turnaround to defend his title, how good was Volkanovski at UFC 298? Meanwhile, Holloway faced an arguably more powerful striker in a higher weight class and schooled Gaethje. Holloway’s high volume and footwork will be the difference, as he’ll rack up points against an opponent who might be underrating his skill set. We’ve seen Topuria look to load up on power shots, but I believe he will lose in a decision as Holloway chips away in a closely contested fight.
Who at UFC 308 needs a win most?
Hale: Ciryl Gane. The former interim heavyweight champion was steamrolled and embarrassed by Jon Jones and allegedly ducked Tom Aspinall. If Gane wants any shot at challenging for gold again, he has to win against Volkov. If not, he can kiss the upper crust of the division goodbye.
Okamoto: Khamzat Chimaev. He feels like the obvious answer on this one. The expectations were just so high. Can he lose this fight and still go on to have a successful career? Of course, he’s 30 years old and there’s no shame in dropping a fight to Whittaker. But if he doesn’t win this — and by extension, if he doesn’t make it to the fight and look good — the expectations on Chimaev will crater compared to what they’ve been. It’s already happened to an extent, but not entirely, because we’ve only seen this man win inside the Octagon. We have an idea of what he’s capable of. But there’s only so long his potential can live on what he’s done in the past, and a loss would significantly lower any projections on his future moving forward.
Wagenheim: Who doesn’t need a win? These are last-chance dances for Holloway and Whittaker, in terms of championship aspirations, and the same is true for Gane and Volkov. But the fighter most in need of something positive in his career is Chimaev. Once upon a time, he burst onto the scene and was soon spoken of as an uncrowned champ in two divisions. But lately, he’s been a factor in zero divisions. Chimaev needs to step in with a top-shelf middleweight and remind us why we once saw him as a world-beater.
Give us one bold prediction related to UFC 308?
1:12
Robert Whittaker rocks Ikram Aliskerov for first-round KO
Robert Whittaker lands several big punches en route to a first-round victory over Ikram Aliskerov.
Wagenheim: All four fights announced on Saturday morning will happen. That’s right, we’re a full 12 weeks away from UFC 308, which leaves oodles of time for the usual fight fractures to scuttle plans. But because the card is in Abu Dhabi, where Chimaev should have no problem securing a visa, I’m going out on a limb and saying everything will go as planned. How’s that for living boldly?
Okamoto: Alex Pereira is going to heavyweight. This counts as a UFC 308 prediction because the light heavyweight booking tells us something. Why is Ankalaev fighting Rakic? He is, by far, the most deserving title contender at 205 pounds. Pereira has beaten three of the top four contenders in the division within the last 13 months. There is no one else for him to fight. So, what does Ankalaev fighting at UFC 308 tell us? For me, it means the UFC has other plans for Pereira. And I can only imagine those plans have to do with the heavyweight title picture that currently includes Jones, Stipe Miocic and Tom Aspinall.
Hale: Ankalaev-Rakic will be for an interim light heavyweight title. Ankalaev facing Rakic is baffling when he’s clearly next in line for the champion. To Brett’s point above, this could mean that “Poatan” must be moving up to heavyweight, possibly in the makeshift tourney Aspinall suggested. There’s no other reason why Ankalev would face an opponent that just lost.
