USWNT vs. Brazil preview, predictions, more

The 2024 Olympic women’s soccer tournament is set to conclude in Paris on Saturday with the final between the United States and Brazil. While the USWNT has been dominant in the tournament under new coach Emma Hayes — it has won all its games — Brazil had a shaky group stage before beating World Cup holders Spain and hosts France in the knockouts.

Will the new-look USWNT win a fifth Olympic gold medal, its first since 2012? Or will Brazil legend Marta finally win an international trophy with her country? Although the U.S. has been successful against Brazil in recent times, anything is possible in tournament soccer.

Ahead of Saturday’s final, ESPN’s Sam Borden and Jeff Kassouf break down the matchup, answer the biggest questions and give their predictions.

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Why could the USWNT win?

Call them whatever you want — and the nickname with the most sticking power lately seems to be “Triple Trouble” — but Trinity Rodman, Mallory Swanson and Sophia Smith have been the gas pedal for this group throughout the entire tournament. The trio has scored nine of the 11 American goals over five games in France, and they’ve done it in all ways: blasts from distance, cutbacks, through balls and scrambles.

There’s no doubt that the U.S. will need a total team effort to beat a quality squad like Brazil, but there’s also no denying that any success for the Americans will almost surely involve one of their frontline attackers doing something magical. Rodman had her moment in the quarters and Smith had hers in the semis — is it Swanson’s turn in the final? — Borden

Why could Brazil win?

Brazil is loaded with attacking talent deep enough to bring 2023 NWSL MVP Kerolin — who miraculously made this team without playing for her club this year after tearing an ACL last fall — off the bench in the semifinal (she scored in second-half stoppage time). They also got here without Marta for the past 2½ games. Marta has literally shed a lot of tears in recent years while fighting her final on-field battles for this Brazil team, and her return from suspension for what will be her last Olympic game is an epic script. Finally sending off the six-time world player of the year with a major title, after so many near misses (including gold medal losses to the USWNT in 2004 and 2008) is an opportunity that won’t be lost on this squad. — Kassouf

Which duel do you think will be decisive in the final?

The USWNT’s front three will get plenty of deserved attention, and there should be plenty of one-on-one matchups as this game develops if Brazil sticks with the three-back, but I’ll go for the less obvious answer here to start: the midfield will define this game. Brazil will attempt to overload those central areas with a rotating cast, just as Germany did in the semifinal against the USWNT, and the U.S. midfield trio of Sam Coffey, Lindsey Horan and Rose Lavelle must find ways to get on the ball more often and distribute it with more precision. Marta has looked much younger than 38 in a stellar year for club and country, and she will be intent on putting her mark on one last major game against one of her original nemeses from 20 years ago. — Kassouf

I completely agree with you, Jeff, and I think that the one area where the U.S. has had some issues in France is in the midfield — simply put, Horan and Lavelle haven’t been consistent at all. In terms of a matchup, I’m looking a little further back, though — Naomi Girma has been outstanding throughout the tournament and she’ll have to lead another strong defensive effort again. As you said earlier, Brazil has real threats in attack (including coming off the bench) and their coach, Arthur Elias, asks his attackers to press high and often. Spain didn’t handle that pressure from players like Gabi Portilho and Priscila, and the U.S. will have to do better if it wants to win. — Borden

USWNT player to watch

Trinity Rodman. It’s hard not to point to Girma as she makes her case as the world’s best center-back, but I think the wider audience discovering this game is going to be locked in on Rodman. Choosing one player from that front three of Rodman, Smith and Swanson is difficult, but there is a different energy to Rodman. She continues to show she is fitter than just about anyone on any field as she roams that right wing, and she has so often been the catalyst of USWNT attacks even beyond her three goals. A collective effort got the USWNT to this game, but Rodman is the player in form to take over this final. — Kassouf

Brazil player to watch

Marta. Look, how do you pick anyone but Marta? Even the most massive USWNT fan — if they truly love women’s soccer — has a tiny piece of them that wants Marta to finally have her moment. The Queen of Football has an unmatched résumé and, at 38, is playing in her sixth Summer Games for Brazil but has never won a World Cup or Olympic title. As one might expect, the Brazilian team doesn’t play through Marta the same way as it used to, but after missing the last 2½ games following her straight red card, Marta will be back on stage for one last can’t-miss show. — Borden

Score prediction

United States 2-1 Brazil. Neither of these teams was widely expected to reach this game, and either victor would make for an incredible narrative. For the U.S., redemption after last year’s epic World Cup failure; for Brazil, a poetic sendoff for the sport’s all-time great. Tired legs will bring mistakes for both teams, and I think the U.S. front three is better suited to punish Brazil in those moments. — Kassouf

United States 3-2 Brazil. I’m with you on the storylines, Jeff — either an amazing end for Marta or an incredible start for Hayes. In terms of the match, I may be blindly hopeful since international finals rarely are played wide open, but I think we could see more goals. I’ve said before I think Hayes has something special going, and so I’ll stick with that: USWNT to win in a thriller. — Borden