'Trying to get to the next 90 feet': What's behind MLB's surging stolen base stats

RICKEY HENDERSON WAS a three-sport star at Oakland Technical High School, a great athlete, unflinching competitor, and excellent, if raw, baseball player whose best physical attribute was his outstanding speed. That was enough to catch the eye of J.J. Guinn, a Berkeley, Calif. police officer and part-time Oakland Athletics scout who signed the 17-year-old Henderson.

“Rickey said ‘I want to be the greatest base stealer of all time’,” Guinn recalled approvingly. Henderson went on to fulfill his audacious ambition, stealing 1,406 bases in a Hall of Fame career that mostly unfolded in an era when teams prized players’ ability to run.

By the time Henderson reached the twilight of his career in the early 2000s, that philosophy had shifted as baseball minimized base stealing and depended more heavily on power hitting to generate runs. In the 25 seasons after Henderson signed his first contract in 1976, Major League teams combined to steal at least 3,000 bases in 21 of them. But in the 21 years that followed, teams reached that milestone only twice.

“The stolen base was taken out because you didn’t want to make an out on the bases,” said Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, whose managerial career began in 1995. “You just wanted to think about slugging the ball, hitting it out of the park.”

Now after more than two decades of being diminished by data analysts, general managers and managers as a winning element of baseball strategy, the stolen base is back as a valued asset.

Major League teams are on pace to steal nearly 3,500 bases this season, continuing a surge that started in 2023 when runners stole 3,503 bases. That was an almost 41 percent increase from the previous year. Last season’s total was the second largest in baseball’s live ball era behind only the 3,585 bases swiped in 1987.

The spike in stolen bases is among the most dramatic results of a package of rule changes that went into effect last year. New rules limiting pitchers to two pickoff attempts or step-offs per batter and increasing the size of bases, which reduced the distance between them by 4 1/2 inches, made base stealing easier. The uptick was presaged in the Minor Leagues, which saw a sharp increase in stolen bases after adopting the new rules in 2022.

The Cincinnati Reds, a young squad built around athleticism and speed, is the team that has seen the biggest increase in steals since the new rules went into effect. The Reds led the Majors in stolen bases in 2023, with 190, more than triple their 2022 total of 58. So far this season, the Reds are again leading baseball in stolen bases, with 167 after 119 games.

Not only are teams stealing more bases over the past two seasons, but they are becoming more efficient at doing so. Baserunners were successful on more than 80 percent of their steal attempts in 2023-the best success rate in MLB history, according to ESPN’s Stats and Information Group. So far this year, runners have stolen bases on close to 78 percent of their attempts, which would be the second-best success rate in MLB history if the pace holds for the entire season.

More frequent base stealing has coincided with more run production for some teams, but not others. Similarly, some teams are winning more as they run more, while others are not.

In 2022, the Reds scored 4.00 runs a game, worse than all but eight of the 30 teams in baseball. Last season, they scored 4.83 runs a game, 9th best in the Majors. So far in 2024, the Reds are scoring 4.45 runs a game, which ranks 14th. While the Reds are scoring more runs over the past two seasons, they remain in second to last place in the competitive National League Central.

The Kansas City Royals are another team effective at swiping bases. Their stolen base total increased from 104 in 2022 to 163 last year. This year, they are on pace to steal more than 130 bases. And the team is winning. After seven consecutive losing seasons that left them far outside the playoff picture, the team is well above .500, and decidedly in the mix for an American League Wild Card playoff spot.

Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who has stolen 25 bases thus far, was the runner-up in the 2024 Home Run Derby. He hit 30 home runs in 2023 and is on pace to hit at least as many this season. Still, he calls his ability to steal bases-he pilfered 49 last season–a major part of his game, and his team’s growing success.

“It’s huge, he said. “Just trying to get to the next 90 feet, put myself in scoring position and be able to help the team win in any way possible. So just being able to use my legs to my advantage helps the guys behind me get some more RBI’s.

The increase in base stealing has had a ripple effect by creating more movement and unpredictable moments on the field, which in turn creates more excitement for fans.

“With even a threat of a stolen base, the opposing defense needs to be prepared potentially to change where the infield stands, which could open up the opportunity for batters to get hits, attempt bunts, and other options,” said Ari Kaplan, a sabermetrics pioneer who for more than three decades worked with Major League teams on data analysis and player evaluation.

The renewed focus on base stealing is making stars of particularly fast players in a way baseball has not seen in generations.

Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz‘s No. 44 jersey is the 15th best-selling in the Majors this season. The second-year player has quickly become the face of the team and one of the most popular players in the National League. The 2024 All-Star hits for power and has a legitimate throwing arm, but on the base paths is where he’s arguably most impactful. So far this year, his 59 steals lead Major League baseball.

“It’s fun running the bases,” said De La Cruz. “It gives energy to the whole field. To the crowd, to your team, to everybody. It’s electric.”

Some prolific base stealers do not rank among the very fastest runners in the game, like Witt and De La Cruz. Instead, they are aggressive on the base paths and canny about when to run. Most of all, they frequently find themselves on base, giving them more opportunities to steal.

Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani is on pace to swipe more than 45 bases this season, yet, Statcast, which tracks baseball data, says his foot speed is only slightly above average. Similarly, Atlanta Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr.led the Majors with 73 stolen bases during his 2023 MVP season, although he runs slower than Ohtani, according to Statcast.

The emphasis on the stolen base marks a sharp change for Major League teams, who in recent decades had come to rely more heavily on power hitting to score runs. As increasing numbers of pitchers threw with overwhelming velocity, which when complemented by wicked breaking balls, caused strikeout numbers to increase.

Then batting averages declined, and it became less common for teams to string together consecutive base hits. That made the price of runners making an out trying to steal even higher, and teams increasingly elected to have runners wait for someone to hit a home run.

Years ago, Oakland Athletics executive Billy Beane, whose reliance on analytics was the subject of the movie “Moneyball,” which tracked the Athletics’ 2002 season, explained why trying to steal bases were not a winning strategy during that era of baseball.

“If you’re last in the league in steals, you’re also last in the league in caught stealing, too, and you’re saving yourself a lot of outs,” he said in a 2002 ESPN article, adding: “Which is more valuable: a potential out or one more base?”

Base runners attempted 5,114 steals in the record-setting 1987 season, even though they were successful just 70.1 percent of the time. That year, Vince Coleman of the St. Louis Cardinals led baseball with 109 stolen bases, which helped propel his team to a World Series appearance. In 2021, baserunners attempted just 2,924 steals, even though they were successful at a 75.7 percent clip. Starling Marte, who played for both the Florida Marlins and the Athletics that season, led baseball with 47 steals that year.

With the new rules in place, the thinking around stolen bases clearly has shifted. MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred said the changes make baseball more exciting. He said surveys and focus groups conducted in the years prior to implementation of the new rules found that fans wanted to see faster-moving games with more action beyond strikeouts and home runs.

“There was an on-going expression of concern about the way we were playing the game on the field,” Manfred said as he unveiled the new rules prior to last season. He continued, “Number one, fans want games with better pace. Two, fans want more action, more balls in play. And three, fans want to see more of the athleticism of our great players.”

The increase in stolen bases has coincided with a significant boost in the number of people going to the ballpark. MLB reported that attendance was up 9.6 percent last season, reversing years of decline. Attendance has continued to increase, going up another 2.5 percent so far this year.

For former players, the resurgence of the stolen base makes the game resemble the one they knew long ago. Former second baseman Bump Wills, whose 52 stolen bases in 1978 remains a single-season record for the Texas Rangers, said he is glad to see base running back in the spotlight. “For so long, baseball got away from the running game and went to the long ball,” said Wills. “I guess people liked the excitement of the home run. But baseball purists have an appreciation for small ball.”

Wills’ father, Maury Wills, was a legendary base runner, who while playing shortstop for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1962 stole 104 bases, breaking Ty Cobb’s 47-year-old record. Wills said his father taught him how to use his speed to full advantage on the baseball field.

Part of that involved learning the tendencies of pitchers. Which left-handed pitchers try to fool baserunners by looking at home plate even when they planned to attempt a pickoff? Or which tend to look at first base as they intend to throw a pitch?

Wills learned to watch for when a pitcher’s lead leg crossed his back leg, knowing he must then throw a pitch or risk the umpire calling a balk. He learned to look for movement in the front foot of a right-hander once the pitcher was set on the rubber, knowing that was his time to run.

Later, while managing in the Rangers’ Minor League system, Wills tried to pass those skills on to his players. But at times, he felt like he was fighting the tide. “That was around the time that they started talking about launch angles, and teaching guys to swing for the fences,” Wills said. “I said, ‘I’m not teaching my guys to swing up. I’m not teaching my guys to hit fly balls. I’m teaching my guys to hit line drives’.”

Tim Raines Sr., whose 808 stolen bases places him fifth on MLB’s all-time list, said his exceptional speed and ability to steal bases was the reason the Montreal Expos promoted him to the Majors in 1979. “When I got there, they encouraged me to run,” said the former leftfielder. Raines developed into much more than just a good baserunner over the course of his 23-year Hall of Fame career. He could hit for power and average, and he always remained a threat on the base paths. “It was a dangerous situation for all involved,” he said with a laugh. “A pitcher didn’t want to throw it down the middle of the plate, but he didn’t want to walk me either.”

He is happy to see stolen bases back in vogue, even if he thinks the new rules make base stealing easier than it was during his day.

“I felt like during our time, the fans loved the way we ran the bases,” said Raines, who retired in 2002. “As far as the stolen base goes, it is definitely something the fans enjoy seeing.”