Independents preview: Win totals, national title odds
There are only three teams left in the FBS Independents group in 2024. First, let’s look at the big dog — Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman enters his third season as head coach for the Fighting Irish. With the expanded 12-team playoff, Notre Dame’s path to postseason glory just got a little wider. Keep an eye on its new quarterback, Riley Leonard, a mobile transfer from Duke.
Defensively, Notre Dame is looking strong once again. The Irish finished 2023 with the sixth-ranked scoring defense, and they’ve added some firepower with sixth-year senior R.J. Oben joining the defensive front. With cornerback Benjamin Morrison and safety Xavier Watts returning to the secondary, these guys could be among the best in the nation.
Moving on to UConn, the Huskies are hoping to bounce back after a disappointing three-win season in 2023. Coach Jim Mora is entering his third year, and he brought in some interesting transfers to shake things up. Nick Evers, who was a four-star recruit, will be taking the reins at quarterback after a stint at Oklahoma. The Huskies return both starting running backs, Cam Edwards and Victor Rosa; expect to see a heavy dose of the run game this season.
Last but not least, we’ve got UMass. The Minutemen are in their final season as an independent before joining the MAC in 2025, and they’re looking to go out with a bang. They’re coming off their best season (3-9) since 2018 (4-8), but can they keep that momentum going?
Overall, it’s going to be an interesting season for these three independents. Notre Dame is gunning for a playoff spot; UConn is looking to rebound; and UMass wants to end its independent era on a high note.
Maldonado’s pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish to make the playoff (-170)
It is a hefty price, but it is warranted. For one, the Irish benefit from the new playoff format, where they can potentially secure one of seven at-large bids, with their highest possible seed being fifth.
What I love: Coaching. Having Freeman back for a third season and Al Golden back as defensive coordinator is huge for maintaining stability. What I love even more is the addition of Mike Denbrock from LSU Tigers. He coached Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels last season when LSU led the FBS in total offense yards per game. During Denbrock’s time with Cincinnati, the Bearcats were a Top 25 team in 2018 and 2020. Denbrock has a track record I trust, a 63-13 overall record as offensive coordinator since 2018.
Then there’s the quarterback, Leonard. His potential is rooted in his dual-threat capabilities. Known for his mobility and athleticism, similar to Daniels, Leonard’s ability to create plays with his legs adds a dynamic element to Notre Dame’s offense. This allows for versatility in playcalling, something that was missing last season with pocket passer Sam Hartman.
Last season was challenging for Leonard because of injuries, but the potential is there. In 2022, he threw for 2,794 yards and 20 passing touchdowns to go along with his 11 rushing scores, one of the few to achieve such stats. Before his injury-plagued 2023 season, Leonard was generating buzz as a potential top-five quarterback prospect for the 2024 NFL draft. Leonard is a great quarterback in a system that aims for a balanced attack.
Denbrock brings a pro-style offense that thrives on run-pass balance and physicality. His experience developing quarterbacks like Daniels makes him well-suited to maximize Leonard’s potential. He just needs to stay healthy.
Notre Dame will have a strong roster, an anticipated elite defense and a manageable schedule. It all starts with a road game at Texas A&M Aggies. If the Fighting Irish can get through that, things will get interesting. The odds are lofty, but I expect to see Notre Dame in the CFB Playoff.
