Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck are splitting after two years. Here are your divorce odds, experts say

“She tried really hard to make things work, and is heartbroken,” an inside source told People of Lopez, who filed for divorce in Los Angeles this week.

Most of us are far too familiar with the grim statistics around how many marriages end in divorce—close to 50%, by many estimates, including that of the American Psychological Association—and there are numerous reasons why couples split. Per one study, the most common causes for divorce are lack of commitment, infidelity, conflict, and arguing, as well as financial problems. 

It’s been reported that Lopez and Affleck’s relationship had been on the rocks for some time. And unfortunately, the allure of the comeback story that inspired celebrity-obsessed hopeless romantics can now make us all question what makes a successful relationship for the long haul.

So, how common is divorce in various stages of marriage?  

• 0–5 years of marriage
  Early days of marriage seem to be a high-risk time. One study found that about 10% of marriages fail in the first two years, in part due to the increased likelihood of infidelity during the beginning of marriage and also unmet expectations following the honeymoon phase. An older study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that the probability of marriages ending within the first five years is 20%. 
• 6–10 years of marriage 
  Research shows that the average length of a first marriage is about eight years, lending some weight to the concept of the “seven-year itch,” which refers to a decline in marital happiness after around seven years.
• 11–20 years of marriage 
  Some couples who have children may fare better after those high-risk early years, in part due to trying to “keep the family unit together when the kids are still in the house,” says Barbie Adler, founder and president of Selective Search Matchmaking. However, once children leave home, divorce risk increases again at around 15 to 20 years of marriage. 

Age also factors in: In the U.S., the median age for divorce is between 28 and 30. Roughly 43% of people between ages 55 and 64 have been divorced, according to the U.S. Census data from 2016. Divorce rates for those 50 and over, the so-called “gray divorce,” have roughly doubled from 1990 to 2015, according to a Pew survey.  

Given the odds, how can your marriage make it for the long haul?

Aim for the 6 vital pillars of a lasting marriage

Sara Nasserzadeh, PhD, couples therapist and author of Love by Design: 6 Ingredients to Build a Lifetime of Love, tells Fortune there are six ingredients to making marriage successful, per her research.

• A shared vision
• Mutual attraction
• Respect
• Compassion
• Being loving and having mutual trust

Be “co-CEOs” 

Everyone evolves, and the key to a successful marriage is being able to evolve together. A large part of that is being each other’s fans, Adler says. Consider gassing each other up from time to time. Genuine compliments go a long way. This also means valuing your partner’s interests, needs, and feelings, and articulating your own. It doesn’t mean everything needs to be equal, like perfectly splitting the house duties with personal hobbies. 

“It’s not tit for tat. It’s more, we’re taking care of each other and lifting each other up, or we’re carrying each other over our shoulders through the hard times,” Adler says. 

Remember that your partner is not just a “mirror” of you, but rather a complement to you. Your relationship is a team. 

It’s like you’re “co-CEOs,” Adler says. “You know your worth but you just merged with another company, and you want to make it work… What are you going to do to make it thrive?” 

Articulate your needs 

We all know that when we hold in our anger or frustration with someone’s behavior, it only begins to fester and can lead to resentment. So, let’s stop playing games and living in the past. Be an active participant in your relationships, experts say. Take the lead and tell your partner what you need from them. It’s a compliment to the relationship when a person feels comfortable enough to share a potential way it can be strengthened. 

First, ask yourself: Why am I so bothered? What do I need to not feel this way? Take a look inward at your own background and relationship history so you can come to the conversation with self-awareness, something renowned psychotherapist Esther Perel emphasizes in her MasterClass on relational intelligence. Come from a place of kindness and say that you’ve been thinking about how you haven’t shared something you need. 

Expect challenges

Some of Adler’s clients experience relational difficulties when faced with something unexpected. Enjoying your partner in the “best of times” doesn’t cut it when life inevitably throws curveballs, which will happen no matter who you end up with, Adler says. It’s not all rainbows and butterflies; we all know that. Instead of expecting everything to go as planned, see challenges as a way to grow together.

“Once you get married and you find your person, that’s when the work begins, and you know who you are going to invest the time in,” she says.  

In harder times, it’s important to think about listening and leaning into your partner’s needs versus only trying to get your perspective across. “What helps me feel heard, seen and validated in our relationship so I can provide the same for my partner?” says Jeanie Chang, a licensed family and marriage therapist. “How can I first validate what they’re experiencing and feeling, and not focus on providing solutions, which can come later? What can I do to show that I’m listening to understand, not listening to respond?”

While marriages are two-way streets, there may be times where you have to give more for a while, lift them up, or even give them tough love, Adler says. You may never know when your time will come and you’ll be the person who needs the extra support. 

But…is rekindling a romance a good idea?

“There was a reason that you are each other’s exes,” says Nasserzadeh.

However, Nasserzadeh says, people evolve and change, and there’s a chance that time may heal the wounds. Communication is key, though.

“We often forget why things did not work. The quirks, pet peeves, and sensitivities are the first place to start. Are they still there?” she says. “Do you still feel the same way about them? What was the reason or reasons that you separated last time that you were together? What are the pulls and pushes this time? Are you getting back together to experience something together—unfinished emotional business, et cetera—or to build something with each other?”

These elements, she says, “are nonnegotiables, and we might need more or less of these ingredients in different phases of a couple’s life, but they need to be present at all times for a loving relationship to thrive.”

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