AFC West preview: Chiefs aiming for history

The Kansas City Chiefs enter 2024 off their second straight Super Bowl championship and are the favorite to win a record third straight (5-1). No team in league history has won three in a row or even reached the game after winning the previous two titles.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, coming off a disappointing statistical regular season by his lofty standards, is the MVP favorite at +475. He’ll have added help in the receiver room after the Chiefs (-250 to win the AFC West) added speedster Xavier Worthy in the draft, reunited with JuJu Smith-Schuster and signed Marquise Brown in free agency, though Brown likely won’t be ready for the start of the season (shoulder).

The Las Vegas Raiders come into the season following an encouraging finish to 2023 after Antonio Pierce took over coaching duties. The offense will look a bit different, with questions at quarterback and Zamir White (Over 800.5 rushing yards, -115 at ESPN BET) poised to take over lead back duties following Josh Jacobs‘ offseason exit. They do still have star wideout Davante Adams (Over 1,000.5 receiving yards, -130) and also added tight end Brock Bowers (40-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year) with the No. 13 pick in the draft.

The Denver Broncos (8-9 last season) have the lowest win total projection in the division (5.5) and will have rookie Bo Nix (11-1 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year) taking over under center. He will be the first rookie quarterback to start a season opener for the Broncos since John Elway in 1983.

The Los Angeles Chargers (+350 to win the AFC West, behind only the Chiefs) are in a bit of a transitional stage as well. Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL fresh off winning a national championship at Michigan and inherits a team that still has Justin Herbert at quarterback (although he is coming off an injury) but no longer has running back Austin Ekeler or wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Chargers added receiver Ladd McConkey in the draft and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in free agency.

Here are all the odds for the AFC West teams and our thoughts on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

2024 schedules/lines: Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Chargers
2023: Chiefs (11-6), Raiders (8-9), Broncos (8-9), Chargers (5-12)
Review: NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South | AFC East
Coming up: AFC North (Wednesday) | AFC South (Thursday)

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Did you know?

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

• The Chiefs enter the 2024 season looking to make history by becoming the first team ever to win three straight Super Bowls. Of the previous eight teams to win back-to-back Super Bowls, none of them even made it back to the Super Bowl in their quest for a three-peat.

• Kansas City won eight straight AFC West titles, trailing only the New England Patriots for the longest streak of division championships in NFL history (11, 2009-19). According to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs have a 74.4% chance to win the division this season.

• The Chargers have a 19% chance to win the AFC West for the first time since 2009. The Raiders have a 5% chance and the Broncos have a 1% chance.

• At ESPN BET, Kansas City’s win total is set at 11.5 for the second straight season. Last season, the Chiefs went 11-6, finishing under their win total for the first time since 2012, the season before Andy Reid’s arrival.

• After finishing with their worst record since 2015, the Chargers hired former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have the second-easiest schedule according to ESPN Analytics and have a 45% chance to make the postseason.

• ESPN BET has Los Angeles with a win total of 8.5 this season. The Chargers have not finished over their win total since 2018 when they won 12 games (win total was 9.5).

• Antonio Pierce turned the Raiders around when he took over in Week 9. The Raiders were 3-5 and had a -61 point differential when they fired Josh McDaniels. From Week 9 on, they had the fourth-best point differential (+62).

• The Broncos have missed the postseason in eight straight seasons, the second-longest active drought in the league (New York Jets, 13).

• According to ESPN BET, the Broncos have a win total of 5.5, which is tied with the Carolina Panthers for second-lowest in the league (New England Patriots, 4.5). ESPN Analytics only has Denver favored in one game this season, that being against the Panthers in Week 8.

Staff bets

Raiders OVER 6.5 wins (-135)

The Raiders ended last season on a strong run after Antonio Pierce took over as the interim coach, winning five of their last nine games, including a statement victory over the Chiefs. The Raiders didn’t make a big splash at quarterback this offseason, but Gardner Minshew has proven to be capable of leading scrappy teams that win a bit more often than they lose, and Aidan O’Connell showed last season he can adequately produce when called upon.

Most importantly, the Raiders could have one of the best defensive lines in football built around Defensive Player of the Year candidate Maxx Crosby, free agent acquisition Christian Wilkins and 2023 No. 7 overall pick Tyree Wilson.

In addition, the Chargers are dealing with health questions to star quarterback Justin Herbert and the Broncos have their own quarterback questions as well with rookie Bo Nix under center, so the Raiders could be in position to compete for wins in the non-Chiefs portion of the division. — Andre Snellings