Clemson vs. Georgia: Will Bulldogs cover double-digit spread?
Regional rivals collide Saturday as two of college football’s top programs, the Clemson Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs, begin their season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta at Noon ET on ABC/ESPN+.
Georgia, the 2021 and 2022 national champions, didn’t reach the College Football Playoff last season after losing to Alabama in the SEC championship game. That said, the Bulldogs have won 42 of 44 games the past three seasons and are coming off a 13-1 campaign that culminated with a lopsided 63-3 victory over Florida State in the Orange Bowl.
For Clemson, which failed to reach double-digit wins last season (9-4) for the first time since 2010, this is its first game as a double-digit underdog in 10 years (Florida State, 2014).
Georgia has won the past two meetings, with the last Clemson victory coming in 2013.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Georgia (-13.5)
Moneyline: Clemson (+450), Georgia (-600)
Over/under: 48.5
First-half spread: Clemson +7.5 (-130), Georgia -7.5 (+105)
Georgia total points: Over 30.5 (-130), under 30.5 (Even)
Clemson total points: Over 16.5 (-125), under 16.5 (-105)
Pick of the game: Clemson at Georgia Under 48.5
I’m more bullish on the Tigers than most. Clemson’s defense was elite last season, ranking in the top 25 in many defensive metrics, including first in takeaways.
Clemson returns eight of its 11 primary starters on defense, including key players like defensive end T.J. Parker, who was second on the team in sacks. The Tigers also added five-star linebacker Sammy Brown, who is anticipated to bolster the linebacker corps and potentially make an immediate impact.
Clemson’s strong defensive line, linebacker corps and secondary, allowed it to maintain high performance levels throughout games. That largely remains the same. I trust Clemson’s potential advantage in the trenches and expect that to contribute to the under 48.5.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Stats & Info
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If the line remains anything +11.5 or more, it would mark the largest underdog role for Clemson since 2012 at FSU (14.5-point dogs, lost by 12).
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Clemson: Covered three straight games as a double-digit point underdog, which includes being 2-0 ATS (0-2 SU) under Dabo Swinney. Their last outright win as a 10+ point underdog was in 2004 against Miami as 16.5-point dogs.
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Georgia: Eight straight unders in season openers, the longest active streak in FBS.
