Don't be surprised if … : Fantasy predictions for 2024

In less than a week, we will have NFL games that count and, therefore, fantasy football results to track. Hope springs eternal and everyone has an opinion on which players will do this and which teams will do that. That’s the fun of being a fan, right?

With that in mind, we asked our ESPN fantasy football analysts to put those thoughts out there for the world to see. If any of these come true, don’t act surprised.

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Don’t be surprised if …

Adonai Mitchell finishes as a top-35 fantasy WR

Currently being drafted as WR61, the Indianapolis Colts rookie has the size and speed (his 4.34 40-yard dash was third fastest among wide receivers at this year’s combine) to render him a deep threat in this offense. And with Josh Downs currently sidelined because of a high ankle sprain, Mitchell has had the opportunity to build rapport with QB Anthony Richardson in camp. Mitchell flew under the radar at Georgia but emerged at Texas to provide a glimpse of what he could become — and the Colts liked what they saw, drafting him 52nd overall. If Downs has a prolonged absence and/or Mitchell makes a strong case for playing time, he could provide a big return on investment for fantasy managers. — Stephania Bell

Travis Etienne Jr. finishes as a top-five fantasy RB

Etienne averaged 16.6 points per game last season and scored 12 touchdowns. He’s a volume runner (267 carries) with the dual-threat skills to produce in the pass game, as Etienne caught 58 of 73 targets in 2023. Even if he has a slight decline in total touches this season, his deployment leads to consistent weekly volume as both a runner and receiver while also creating scoring opportunities in the low red zone. There’s real upside here for Etienne in a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that has the pieces — and the scheme under head coach Doug Pederson — to produce explosive numbers in 2024. — Matt Bowen

Kyren Williams finishes as a top-five fantasy RB

Williams’ stock is dipping after recent “news” that he’ll be the Los Angeles Rams‘ primary punt returner. Note that Williams handled that role during Weeks 1-3 last season (he was responsible for all three of the Rams’ punt returns) while also playing 86% of the team’s offensive snaps during the span. Williams actually opened the 2023 season in a timeshare with Cam Akers, but proceeded to handle 14 of the team’s first 24 RB carries while playing 67% of the snaps in a comfortable Week 1 win over Seattle. He found the end zone twice in that game and, before Austin Trammell handled punt return duties in Week 4, sat fifth among running backs in fantasy points. We already factored in a dip in usage for Williams with rookie Blake Corum in the mix, so double-counting for that now that he’ll return one or two punts per game feels like a mistake. One year after joining Christian McCaffrey as the only backs to average more than 18.0 fantasy PPG, the 24-year-old Williams is well positioned for another solid RB1 campaign. — Mike Clay

The Denver Broncos‘ passing game delivers outstanding fantasy numbers

In particular, Marvin Mims Jr. becomes the breakout star in our game so many expected he’d be in 2023. Bo Nix‘s crowning as the starting quarterback is a big plus, considering he looked plenty comfortable in the pocket and was mistake-free during his two preseason games. The release of Tim Patrick streamlines the receiving pecking order such that the targets for Courtland Sutton and Mims are more secure than they were even a few weeks ago. Sutton, who is going as the No. 42 wide receiver on average, and Mims, going outside the positional top 75, have ceilings that reach into the position’s top 20. Meanwhile, Nix should have matchups appeal with a chance at being his position’s out-of-nowhere surprise — a top-12 quarterback. — Tristan H. Cockcroft

Kyle Pitts is TE1 this season

The first three seasons of Pitts’ career have been frustrating for his fantasy managers. Even Pitts’ rookie season, in which he became only the second tight end in league history to debut with 1,000 yards receiving, was a bit disappointing because he scored only one touchdown. Injuries, quarterback play and scheme design were the co-conspirators the last two years. This is the season it finally comes together. Pitts will play in an Atlanta Falcons offense that features his extraordinary talents and is run by a competent QB in Kirk Cousins. At this time next year, we’ll look at Pitts as a Round 2-3 fantasy pick. — Tyler Fulghum

Derrick Henry rushes for 20 touchdowns

Perhaps this isn’t bold enough. Twenty-five scores? Henry has reached double-digit rushing touchdowns in six consecutive seasons, but even in his 2,000-yard season, he had “only” 17. That was in a 16-game season. Now he gets 17 games, and the Baltimore Ravens offense provides a perfect setup, boasting a stronger offensive line, an elusive quarterback with elite skills and creative playcalling. After all, if Gus Edwards can score 13 touchdowns, what can Henry do? Yes, he is 30, but he’s still destroying defenders and piling on yards after contact. More touchdowns than receptions are in play too. — Eric Karabell

Rome Odunze leapfrogs Keenan Allen as Caleb Williams‘ No. 2 target

It’s a question of when, not if. Odunze will be Williams’ second-favorite target behind DJ Moore before season’s end. Odunze has exuded Alpha energy throughout his college career (10 games of at least 100 receiving yards in 2023 and a Biletnikoff Award finalist) and from the jump since being drafted ninth overall by the Chicago Bears. He and Williams have demonstrated instant chemistry. The two notably hooked up on an out-of-structure play that resulted in a gorgeous 45-yard connection during the team’s third preseason outing against Cincinnati. A player with Odunze’s frame, route savvy and catch radius cannot be relegated to No. 3 WR duties for long. His stat lines might be a bit boom or bust to begin, but he’s an awesome upside pick in the 10th round (an astonishing three rounds after Allen is being selected). — Liz Loza

Travis Kelce finishes outside the top five TEs

Kelce is still one of the best (if not the best) tight ends in the game, but the gap between him and the rest of the field has shrunk considerably. Since 2016, Kelce has finished as the top tight end six times and never lower than TE3 in that span. His dominant run has been impressive, but now Kelce has competition, not only in his own offense, but from a bunch of other exciting fantasy-relevant tight ends. Consider Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Evan Engram, David Njoku and (now that he has a real QB) Kyle Pitts, just to name a handful. Kelce turns 35 this year and also has to deal with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown stealing targets in the Kansas City Chiefs offense. Kelce had the second-lowest target share of his career last season, and that was before the Chiefs added more weapons to the offense. Nothing gold can stay, which is why I won’t be surprised if we see a changing of the guard at the top of the tight end position this season. — Daniel Dopp

Caleb Williams throws for 4,000-plus yards and is a top-10 fantasy QB

The Bears are the only team that has never had a quarterback pass for 4,000 yards in a season. Surrounded by an impressive supporting cast, Williams is well-positioned to end that drought. The No. 1 pick will be the first rookie quarterback selected in the top five to throw to multiple players who had at least 1,200 receiving yards the previous season (Moore, Allen). He’ll also have an added target in fellow first-round rookie Odunze, who led the FBS with 1,640 receiving yards in his final college season at Washington. Williams’ rushing potential gives him a high fantasy ceiling. — Eric Moody

Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-seven fantasy QB as a rookie

Daniels checks in at QB12 in my preseason rankings, one spot ahead of Caleb Williams among all rookie signal-callers. Daniels has a lot of ingredients working in his favor to post a huge season out of the gates, as he has elite mobility for the position (he led all FBS players in yards per rush attempt last season, minimum 100 rushes), is a gifted thrower and will be powering a fast-paced offense that will frequently play from behind this season. While we often harp on the importance of rushing for quarterbacks as it pertains to creating a high floor, Daniels also possesses major upside. — Field Yates