MLB Power Rankings: Top 10 sees shake-up as final month approaches
Welcome to the final stretch. As we enter September, teams are mostly split into three categories: those preparing for the playoffs, those trying to make a run at contention and those whose focus has turned to next season.
And there’s still a fair amount to play for within those groups. Take the clubs that are pretty safely in playoff position. A number of them are battling in division races in the last month of the regular season, such as the Yankees and Orioles in the AL East and the Guardians and Royals in the AL Central.
The second group — those trying to play their way into a postseason berth — has begun to see its numbers dwindle, as more and more squads find themselves dropping out of their wild-card races, which were once incredibly muddled in both leagues.
With that said, every team has something it’s focusing on in September. What’s the final-month goal for each?
Our expert panel has combined to rank every team based on a combination of what we’ve seen so far and what we already knew going into the 162-game marathon that is a full baseball season. We also asked ESPN MLB experts David Schoenfield, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Alden Gonzalez and Jorge Castillo to weigh in with an observation for all 30 teams.
Week 21 | Second-half preview | Preseason rankings
Record: 79-54
Previous ranking: 1
The Dodgers’ focus down the stretch is obvious: They need to get their starting rotation in order. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (shoulder) has been out since the middle of June and still needs to navigate through a rehab assignment; Tyler Glasnow (elbow) is working his way back from tendinitis that seems to be more serious than the team initially believed; Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, meanwhile, have struggled mightily (though Buehler showed some really positive signs on Wednesday). The degree of potential outcomes for the rotation is incredibly wide. Jack Flaherty seems to be the only certainty at this moment to start games in October, though cases can certainly be made for Gavin Stone and Clayton Kershaw. The rest? Who knows. — Gonzalez
Record: 78-56
Previous ranking: 2
The Yankees’ push for the American League East crown will be bolstered by an influx of talent in September. As many as eight players could come off the injured list over the final month, including starters Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Cody Poteet; first baseman Anthony Rizzo; infielder Jon Berti; and relievers Lou Trivino and Ian Hamilton. Plus, outfield prospect Jasson Dominguez and relievers Nick Burdi and Scott Effross are possible September call-ups as well. Sorting through the reinforcements and how to deploy them will be front of mind in the Bronx as the Yankees seek to dethrone the Orioles in the division. — Castillo
Record: 78-55
Previous ranking: 3
Some fun Phillies facts to watch:
-
Alec Bohm is 11 RBIs from reaching 100, which would make him the first Phillies third baseman to reach the century mark since Scott Rolen in 2001.
-
Kyle Schwarber is hitting .193 with a .755 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers, but .324 with a .955 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers.
-
Trea Turner is hitting .305, which would make him the first Phillies shortstop to hit .300 since Larry Bowa in 1975 (and before that, you’d have to go back to Dick Bartell in 1934).
-
With the Phillies’ upcoming big four-game series against Atlanta — in which they can essentially wrap up the division by taking three of four — they moved up the struggling Taijuan Walker to pitch Wednesday against the Astros and pushed Cristopher Sanchez back to start Thursday against the Braves. — Schoenfield
Record: 77-57
Previous ranking: 4
“I’m kind of searching for guys to get outs in the back third of the game right now.” That’s how Orioles manager Brandon Hyde recently summarized his bullpen situation. Baltimore’s relief corps has become a problem. Craig Kimbrel, who has allowed a baserunner in 13 of his last 14 outings, has been demoted from the closer role. His replacement, deadline acquisition Seranthony Dominguez, gave up two walk-off home runs to the Mets last week. The Orioles aren’t the only contender with questions in their bullpen — especially in the back end. But the onslaught of injuries to their rotation — and Corbin Burnes‘ recent struggles — exacerbates the issue going into September. The group needs to improve to beat out the Yankees for the AL East title. — Castillo
Record: 76-57
Previous ranking: 8
The D-backs have gone from 10 games out of first place in the division on July 9 to only three games back as of Thursday morning. Their next series: four games against the Dodgers team they’ve spent these last few months chasing. Their last series: three games against the Padres team with which they’ve been virtually in lock-step in the wild-card standings since the All-Star break. Playoff positioning will of course be the focus for the reigning National League champions, who reached the World Series last year despite not having home-field advantage in any series. The D-backs’ rotation is finally healthy, so much so that Jordan Montgomery has been sent to the bullpen. Now it’s about getting three key position players — Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker and Ketel Marte — back in the lineup for the stretch run. — Gonzalez
Record: 76-56
Previous ranking: 5
Milwaukee should work on lining up its pitching in September to be running at full capacity when the playoffs start. The Brewers have held a healthy lead in the NL Central for most of the season, and though the Cubs are surging a bit, the Brewers probably won’t be challenged in the final month. It’s doubtful they’ll catch either the Dodgers or Phillies to earn a bye in the first round, but if they get close enough to make it interesting, forget about lining up your rotation — go for it. Avoiding the first round would allow them to line up things. Milwaukee is sitting just fine heading into September. — Rogers
Record: 76-59
Previous ranking: 7
The Padres have been one of baseball’s best teams since the All-Star break and look primed to make a prolonged run through October. You know what would really put them over the top? Fernando Tatis Jr. and Yu Darvish. Tatis, arguably their best player, has been out since June because of a femoral stress reaction but finally began to ramp up last week and is spending this week seeing velocity at the team’s spring training complex. He could be close to a return. The same can be said for Darvish, who had been away from the team since going on the restricted list at the end of May but pitched three simulated innings Sunday. The Padres are flat-out scary if those two are ready for October. — Gonzalez
Record: 76-58
Previous ranking: 6
After losing a doubleheader to the Royals on Monday and dropping a 6-1 decision on Tuesday, the Guardians were in a first-place tie with Kansas City atop the division, the first time they hadn’t held sole possession of first place since April 13. (However, a win in the series finale Wednesday once again gave them the division lead.) The starters have gone 6-14 in August with a 5.17 ERA, though that’s not too different from June (5.02 ERA) or July (4.81 ERA). The offense has been just as much of a culprit for the struggles this month — hitting .223 with a .670 OPS — with trade deadline acquisition Lane Thomas an absolute disaster, hitting .139 in August without a home run. Steven Kwan has also dropped off, hitting .202 this month. While a playoff spot still feels fairly safe, the division race seems like it might favor Kansas City. — Schoenfield
Record: 75-59
Previous ranking: 10
At this point of the season, Kansas City has proven it’s a power in the AL looking to strengthen its postseason position. When the Royals grabbed a share of the AL Central lead with a win at Cleveland on Tuesday, doing so vaulted them from the fifth slot in the right-now playoff scenario to the second slot, which carries with it a first-round bye. In other words, the way this year’s AL is shaking out, there is a huge difference between winning the Central and landing a wild-card spot. But while the Royals are trying to fend off the Guardians and Twins for the division, they have every right to keep an eye on the Yankees and Orioles for a potential top seed. It has been that kind of season for the Royals — and the time to doubt their viability is past. — Doolittle
Record: 71-62
Previous ranking: 9
The Astros have gradually become more whole, a process that won’t be complete until Kyle Tucker returns to the lineup. Getting Tucker back and rolling at something close to the level where he was before he went down is crucial for Houston’s postseason outlook. The Astros haven’t secured their division, though their grasp on the AL West becomes more firm by the day. And they are close enough to the AL Central leaders that a first-round bye remains possible. After all the ups and downs of the season, this doesn’t look like the year the Astros slip out of the playoff bracket. Now it’s about getting the roster as strong as possible to better their positioning, which led them to sign recently released ex-Dodger Jason Heyward in a bench-bolstering move. — Doolittle
Record: 72-61
Previous ranking: 11
The good news: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are a trio bursting with talent. With them, Minnesota can be a very scary team in October. The not-so-good news: There is no telling whether the three will be healthy at the same time again in 2024 — they’ve been in the Twins’ starting lineup together for only 17 games this season. At the moment, Lewis is the only one not on the IL. Buxton is on it because of right hip inflammation, and Correa has been out since the All-Star break because of plantar fasciitis. Though Buxton is expected back in early September, Correa’s timetable is fuzzier. The Twins, assuming they hold onto a wild-card spot, need to get that trio healthy to contend for the AL pennant. — Castillo
Record: 73-60
Previous ranking: 13
It’s time to start talking about Marcell Ozuna‘s Triple Crown chances as we enter the final month of play. He’s second in the NL in batting average (.309, one point behind Luis Arraez) and first in RBIs (98, three more than Shohei Ohtani), while trailing only Ohtani in home runs (42 to 37). Certainly, a Triple Crown makes Ozuna an MVP candidate, although he still trails his fellow DH Ohtani by a large margin in WAR (6.7 to 4.3). Why the big gap? Ohtani has a big advantage in baserunning value (plus-7 runs to minus-2 runs) and avoiding double plays (plus-2 runs to minus-4 as Ozuna has grounded into 20 double plays). That’s worth about 1.5 wins right there. Ohtani also has more plate appearances, which also helps. — Schoenfield
Record: 69-64
Previous ranking: 14
It looks as if it might be down to the Mets and Braves for the final wild-card spot, but the Mets just can’t seem to put together a big winning streak to apply more pressure. They haven’t won three in a row since winning five straight in late July. They’ll have a chance to do it this weekend in Chicago against the hapless White Sox and will look to keep that momentum going down the stretch. Meanwhile, Francisco Lindor continues to pick up some MVP momentum, although it will be hard to beat out Shohei Ohtani, who might go 50/50. Still, Lindor has passed Ohtani in fWAR to lead the NL (6.6 to 6.4) and is third in bWAR (Ohtani 6.7, Ketel Marte 6.0, Lindor 5.8). Lindor is on his way to a 30/30 season in which he’ll reach 100 runs and close to 100 RBIs, and he could win his first Gold Glove since he was with Cleveland in 2019. — Schoenfield
Record: 69-64
Previous ranking: 12
How ugly is Boston’s pitching situation? They signed 44-year-old Rich Hill, who hasn’t pitched since 2023, to a minor league deal last week and called him up Tuesday. The left-hander, pitching in his 20th major league season, reported to work as a reliever. It’s quite the story. Hill is from the Boston area and it’s his fourth stint with his hometown team. He has something left in the tank, but the Red Sox aren’t making this move unless they’re desperate for pitching help — which they are.
Boston acquired three pitchers at the trade deadline — starter James Paxton and relievers Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia. They’re all on the IL. Meanwhile, mainstays have faltered. The club’s 5.54 ERA since the All-Star break is 29th in all of baseball. With that, despite a loaded offense, Boston’s playoff hopes are fading. The pitching staff needs to get back on track to keep the team alive. — Castillo
Record: 68-66
Previous ranking: 15
Can a team really establish a new style of play simply because of a new manager? Well, it has happened in the past, though it doesn’t feel like a common thing in this era when there is less team-to-team variation in terms of strategy and approach than there used to be. Still, Dan Wilson seems to be trying some things after taking over for scapegoat Scott Servais as Seattle’s new skipper. The team still isn’t hitting, but at least Wilson is intent on manufacturing something out of the few baserunners the Mariners get — they’ve stolen 11 bases during his first six games in the dugout. Still, the Mariners have been getting about the same percentage of their runs via the longball (roughly 44%). They might as well keep trying in September; it’s not as if anything else was working. — Doolittle
Record: 67-67
Previous ranking: 16
The Giants won seven of nine games at the start of the month and looked as if they might make a mildly surprising run at a wild-card spot. But they have since basically treaded water and now seem to be on the verge of falling out of it altogether. Maybe there’s a chance for them to make a last-gasp inspired run at a playoff spot. San Francisco has made the playoffs only once in the last eight years — on the back of a 107-win team in 2021 that nobody saw coming. This — the Giants’ first year with Bob Melvin as manager and sixth with Farhan Zaidi running baseball operations — was supposed to be the year they made a leap back into contention. Instead it has been another snooze fest. They have four weeks to change that. — Gonzalez
Record: 68-66
Previous ranking: 19
The Cubs finally pushed above the .500 mark this week for the first time in three months, so they need to keep those good vibes going and at least keep games in September interesting. Finishing this season with at least 83 wins (the number they won in 2023) would be nice, but more importantly, they want to feel confident the team will be ready to take off in 2025, manager Craig Counsell’s second year. And if the progress of two young players — catcher Miguel Amaya and center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong — continues in this last month, all the better. — Rogers
Record: 68-66
Previous ranking: 21
The next four-plus weeks are all about Tarik Skubal’s quest to solidify the AL Cy Young Award and lock up the Triple Crown. The 27-year-old left-hander began the month by giving up five runs to the surging Royals but has since given up only seven runs in 24 innings over the course of four starts. His 15 wins are just one more than Seth Lugo and Carlos Rodon and his 193 strikeouts are just six more than Cole Ragans for the AL lead, but Skubal easily leads in ERA (his is 2.58; next closest is Logan Gilbert at 3.09). — Gonzalez
Record: 66-67
Previous ranking: 18
St. Louis might be heading toward a regime change. After what looked like a good trade deadline for the team, the Cardinals have gone backward. And now they aren’t filling seats at Busch Stadium, an almost unheard of development. What that change could look like is hard to know right now, but it’s possible that a complete overhaul might be in order. The Cardinals attempted a rebound from last season’s last-place showing, and while they’ve shown improvement, they’ve still fallen flat. The one caveat? They could still get hot. St. Louis won 17 games in a row in September 2021. A repeat of that performance would change everything, but don’t count on it. — Rogers
Record: 66-67
Previous ranking: 17
Tampa Bay’s focus is officially on 2025. That was the assumption at the trade deadline, when the Rays traded veterans for prospects and players under control beyond this season, but the team remained on the fringes of the wild-card race. But hanging around .500 this late into the season isn’t good enough. So it’s now about giving young players a shot to play every day and evaluating who can help in the future. — Castillo
Record: 65-70
Previous ranking: 23
It has been a lost season for Bo Bichette. The two-time All-Star shortstop is batting .222 with a .595 OPS in 80 games. He last played on July 29 before going on the IL because of a calf injury for the second time in just over a month. His struggles typify the 2024 Blue Jays. At this point, getting back on the field before the end of the season would be a win.
Bichette is making progress. He took ground balls at Fenway Park on Tuesday. He’s expected to continue working out with the team on the field before going out on rehab assignment. The best-case scenario appears to be a mid-September return, so there’s still a chance it won’t happen. If it does, Bichette could finish the season strong while the Blue Jays could benefit from him reestablishing some of his trade value heading into the offseason. — Castillo
Record: 63-70
Previous ranking: 20
Cincinnati should spend September taking a long look at what went wrong this season. That could start in the dugout, where manager David Bell must be feeling the heat (at least that’s the perception from outside the organization). This isn’t a team that needs to be debuting a lot of young players in the final month. Those days are over. The Reds’ window of contention should have begun this year — there were high hopes of that in spring training — but they just didn’t hit enough. Understanding why some players took a step back at the plate will go a long way toward understanding their poor season. — Rogers
Record: 62-71
Previous ranking: 22
Getting Jacob deGrom back to the majors and striking fear in opposing batters might be the best remaining use of the Rangers’ tough 2024 season. It feels more likely than ever to happen as deGrom has barely been touched in two brief rehab outings. Now he’ll stretch out a little from here and hopefully get in three or four starts at the big league level before the season ends. Nothing would better help set Texas’ offseason plan in motion than seeing deGrom back in form heading into the hot stove season. — Doolittle
Record: 62-71
Previous ranking: 24
It has all fallen apart in Pittsburgh, so concentrating on a better 2025 is the best course of action. That could include dipping down into the minors, but it could also mean shutting down Paul Skenes — or at least limiting his workload — after a fantastic rookie year. The Pirates already indicated a turn to next season when they announced Oneil Cruz would be focusing on playing center field instead of shortstop down the stretch. They stayed relevant longer than they did last season, but not long enough to make September games important in the standings. Maybe that will come next year. — Rogers
Record: 61-73
Previous ranking: 25
Dylan Crews, last year’s second overall pick after Paul Skenes, went 0-for-3 with a walk in his debut, but in his next game, he went 2-for-4 with his first hit a double off the left-field wall off Gerrit Cole. Crews didn’t exactly tear up the minors (.270/.342/.451), but he did hit .333 over his final 14 games at Triple-A before being recalled and ranks as one of baseball’s top hitting prospects. He’s going to have to cut down on his chase rate and get the ball in the air more often, but it makes sense for the Nationals to play him down the stretch and get him experience heading into 2025. With the future now all up in the majors — Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, plus some young starters — it will be interesting to see if the Nationals dig into free agency this offseason. — Schoenfield
Record: 58-75
Previous ranking: 26
The Athletics are entering the stretch run of their time in Oakland, which began in 1968. Saying goodbye will be what rules their final month. The A’s have already reversed their downward trend with improved play this season, topping last year’s meager total of 50 wins on Aug. 13. They now look like a good bet to escape the division cellar by timing their modest rise with the Angels’ freefall. Though it’s not exactly conjuring images of the Swingin’ A’s or the Bash Brothers, at the very least it’s making things a little less funereal than they might have been. — Doolittle
Record: 54-79
Previous ranking: 27
The ongoing Angels slide now has them on pace to break the franchise record for losses (95), so avoiding that would be nice. It just wouldn’t feel right for manager Ron Washington’s name to enter the Angels’ record book in that way because this mess is certainly not his making. Other than eking out a few more wins, the Angels have a chance to get a look at some of their near-ready prospects and start the process of getting them acclimated to the majors. Possible call-ups include the Angels’ top pick in June, Christian Moore, who has a .996 OPS to show for his first 20 professional games, as well as right-handed starter Caden Dana, a 20-year-old whose dominance in the minors has only accelerated the deeper the season has gone. Innings will obviously be a factor for Dana, who has already topped 130 in 2024. — Doolittle
Record: 50-84
Previous ranking: 28
The Rockies will turn their focus to evaluating their young players, an all-too-familiar theme of late. They will hope that center fielder Brenton Doyle continues to make offensive strides; that corner outfielder Nolan Jones recaptures some of what made him dynamic last year; that shortstop Ezequiel Tovar hits more like the player he showed through July, not the one from August; that first baseman Michael Toglia shows signs of sticking; and that catcher Drew Romo, called up after Elias Diaz was put on waivers, gains some valuable experience in the major leagues. The future, of course, is all the Rockies have. — Gonzalez
Record: 48-85
Previous ranking: 29
The Marlins are now up to 16 different starting pitchers deployed, with Trevor Rogers, now with the Orioles, leading the way with 21 starts. Roddery Munoz is second with 17 starts and a 6.53 ERA. He remains in the rotation, mainly because the Marlins don’t have any other options, so he could end up matching Rogers by the end of the season — but 21 games started would be the fewest by a team leader in franchise history (not including strike-shortened seasons). Even in the 108-loss season of 1998, the Marlins had three pitchers make at least 29 starts. One goal for next season: Find five guys who can stay healthy and give you 25 to 30 starts. Getting Sandy Alcantara back will help, and while he did say he wants to pitch again this season, the Marlins said that won’t happen. — Schoenfield
Record: 31-103
Previous ranking: 30
It seems inevitable at this point the White Sox will set a single-season record by surpassing 120 losses. In fact, it’s not an if, it’s a when. They just can’t stay with opponents past five or six innings. It’s incredible how many close games they’ve played until the later innings — just in innings 7-9, they’ve been outscored by a whopping 134 runs this season. They are the only team in baseball that holds a losing record (31-50) when holding a lead at any time in a game. Chicago has also been swept 20 times, while no other team has been swept more than 10 times. Yes, that record is coming down. — Rogers
