Early picks for NFL Week 1
The 2024 Week 1 NFL schedule is stacked with some great matchups.
The first week slate features both a Thursday and Friday night game as the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) kick off the season against the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 5. The NFL action then heads to Brazil for a game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles on Sept. 6.
The Detroit Lions have an NFC divisional round rematch against the Los Angeles Rams on Sept 8 and the slate concludes with the likely return of Aaron Rodgers, as the New York Jets face the San Francisco 49ers on Sept. 9 on Monday Night Football (ABC/ESPN+).
Our betting analysts looked at the early Week 1 lines to find some value before the lines move closer to the games.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Baltimore Ravens (+3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Several well-respected sportsbooks — both in Vegas and offshore — have already adjusted south to Chiefs -2.5 thanks to an influx of sophisticated Ravens money. With Baltimore +3 (-120) still available at ESPN BET, I’m getting down now before the key number of “3” disappears.
Since taking over as head coach in Baltimore back in 2008, John Harbaugh is an utterly unthinkable 12-4 straight-up and against the spread in Week 1. That 75% hit rate jumps to 85.7% (6-1 SU and ATS) from 2017 to present day, with a bonkers +18.9 cover margin. Look for newly acquired running back Derrick Henry and the Baltimore rushing attack to keep the Ravens offense on the field… and Patrick Mahomes off it.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Detroit Lions
I don’t know if this will move down to 3, but in case it does, I want the extra half point on the Rams. Sean McVay has been an absolute killer in Week 1 (7-0 ATS). The Rams easily could have won that Wild Card game at Ford Field in January. This should be another tightly contested, coin flip game. Having more than a field goal head start on the scoreboard seems very valuable to me.
Ben Solak’s first bet: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-120) at Cleveland Browns
I understand that the Browns were 5-1 in Deshaun Watson‘s six starts last season, but he was far from impressive in that limited time. Without Nick Chubb in the backfield, Watson will need to carry the Browns offense against what should remain a stingy defense in Dallas even with the injury to DaRon Bland.
But even more than I’d like to be fading the Browns early, I’m buying the Cowboys early. I think they’ve drafted and developed well to account for their offensive line departures. I also think that our focus on the poor long-term health of the Cowboys’ franchise (long CeeDee Lamb contract hold-in, no Dak deal, no Parsons deal) biases us against the short-term health of the Cowboys roster right now. Prescott, Parsons, and Lamb are still in the building. Only the Chiefs have won more regular season games over the last three years than the Cowboys. This is still a very good football team.
Seth Walder first bet: Alternate Spread: Seattle Seahawks (-12.5, +215) vs. Denver Broncos
I’m using an alternate line here to take advantage of the fact that this game has way more variance than a normal contest. There’s a chance that Ryan Grubb’s offense – which powered Washington to the national title game last year – could provide instant fireworks in its NFL debut. Mike Macdonald should find creative ways to get pressure and immediately put life into the Seattle’s pass rush. And there’s a chance that Bo Nix just can’t hang in his NFL debut. I don’t know if any of these will happen, but the chance of an extreme result seems much higher here than most games.
Andre Snellings first bet: Green Bay Packers +3.0 over Philadelphia Eagles (-120).
Jalen Hurts didn’t play at all this preseason and for the second year in a row he’ll start the season with a new offense under a new offensive coordinator. The Packers are getting the full 3 points at ESPN BET right now, even though the Eagles won’t really have home field advantage with the game to be played in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While I expect the Eagles to look better than the team that lost six of their last seven games last season, they’ll be facing a Packers squad that ended last year on fire as Jordan Love took flight in his first year starting under center. Love enters this year with a full complement of exciting young wide receivers healthy, raising the ceiling for the Packers’ offense and increasing the likelihood they start the season on a high note.
Pam Maldonado’s first bet: Lamar Jackson over 675.5 rushing yards.
Lamar Jackson is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in NFL history. The 2024 season should make no difference. The Ravens offensive scheme is known for its run-heavy approach, which plays right into Jackson’s strengths as a mobile quarterback. Jackson has both the agility and the speed to evade defenders to make explosive plays. It’s his keen awareness on the field, ability to read defenses, to then make a split-second decision that helps Jackson to maximize his rushing opportunities. Last year, Jackson rushed 821 yards despite facing the ninth toughest schedule of opponents. This year, the Ravens face the 10th easiest schedule of rushing defenses. The Ravens are committed to the run game and Jackson will have plenty of opportunities to accumulate rushing yards.
