Stewie's treys, Young's decline and more WNBA trends
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Alexa Philippou, ESPN
What was previously one of the most anticipated rematches of the 2024 season is looking a little different.
On Sunday, the Las Vegas Aces will take on the team they beat on their way to a second consecutive WNBA title, the New York Liberty (4 p.m. ET, ESPN). But with two weeks remaining in the regular season, it’s looking less like a future WNBA Finals rematch, and more like a potential semifinals preview.
To recap how we got here: The Liberty fell to the Aces 3-1 in last year’s highly anticipated Finals, but this year it’s New York at the top. New York has been ranked No. 1 in the league for most of the season and owns the teams’ regular-season series 2-0, beating Las Vegas by an average margin of 10 points.
If New York has been trending upward all season, the Aces have been on a roller coaster, their defense in particular frustrating coach Becky Hammon. They haven’t played at the level we saw in 2022 or 2023, and currently sit fourth in the standings and in net rating (+5.8). Yet after losing five of seven, they enter the weekend having won three straight.
ESPN Analytics gives Las Vegas a 65% chance of earning a four-seed, which would likely mean it’d have to face the Liberty for a spot in the Finals.
Both teams have already secured postseason berths, so Sunday’s contest is largely about sustaining momentum. The Liberty will undoubtedly be riding high if they sweep the Aces in the regular season. Las Vegas, meanwhile, would get a huge confidence boost from knocking off New York — in Brooklyn no less.
With the Liberty mostly cruising through the second half and the Aces hoping for some stability and consistency — headlining a weekend full of intriguing games — here are more leaguewide trends to monitor in the final two weeks of the regular season.
UP: Breanna Stewart‘s 3-point shooting
The only real knock on reigning MVP Breanna Stewart’s solid season has been her 3-point shooting: a career-low 22.9% pre-Olympics, compared to at least 33.3% in each of her previous seven WNBA seasons.
Since returning from the break, though, Stewart is hitting 44.4% (that’s the best mark for the Liberty after Leonie Fiebich‘s 51.6%). She’s also the team’s top scorer over the past nine games (22.7 PPG), including a pair of 32-point efforts.
If Stewart can keep up this level of shooting, the first-place Liberty will be that much more unbeatable in the postseason.
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Breanna Stewart impresses with 32 points vs. Storm
Breanna Stewart shines with 32 points in the Liberty’s win over the Storm.
DOWN: Jackie Young post-Olympics
The Aces’ struggles this season don’t fall on one player, but Young’s recent production is somewhat concerning. She averaged 18.5 points per game on 45% shooting in the first half, down from last year’s career-best efficiency (52.3%) but still solid.
Since the Olympics, though, she has dropped to 12.1 points per game on 35.8% shooting. Hammon held her out a game recently to rest, saying she was “dinged up” from Paris, which could explain Young’s slump.
Still, her decline accentuates how the Aces’ backcourt has been less efficient this season than last year’s, and why A’ja Wilson has had to carry the team. If Las Vegas wants that three-peat, Young will need to return to her early-season form.
DOWN: The Seattle Storm, offensively and defensively
After forming a superteam in the offseason, the Storm boasted the third-best net rating to start the summer (+8.5), then added Gabby Williams after the Olympic break. But following Thursday’s loss to the Liberty, they’re 3-6 post-Olympics.
Their defense hasn’t been as strong as it was in the first half of the season, and their offense can struggle from a lack of depth and 3-point inefficiency (guards Skylar Diggins-Smith and Jewell Loyd are shooting just 26.6% and 27.6% from deep, respectively).
Seattle hasn’t been an offensive machine this season, so any boost it gets on that end from Williams or others would be welcomed. Either way, it must rediscover its defensive prowess and try to win games behind that.
UP: Indiana Fever‘s clutch game
An under-appreciated feature of the Fever’s 7-1 record since the Olympics? Their performance in close games. Indiana has six wins this season in which neither team held a double-digit lead — one short of the WNBA single-season record.
Indiana is also 4-0 since the break in clutch games — defined as a game within five points with five or fewer minutes remaining — and is the only squad perfect in those situations (minimum three games) in that span. The Fever are outscoring opponents 40-18 in clutch minutes.
The recent performance is proof this young team has learned to stay poised in high-pressure situations, which will only help the Fever in the playoffs.
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Caitlin Clark makes history with 28 points, 12 assists in Fever’s win over Wings
Caitlin Clark becomes the first player with 25 points and 10 assists in consecutive regular-season games in WNBA history.
UP: Satou Sabally‘s emergence
Without Sabally in the first half of the season, the Dallas Wings‘ -9.7 net rating was a league worst. She has given life to a team that now isn’t entirely out of the playoff race, averaging 19.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Her efficiency from 3 in particular (48.9%) has been impressive, and the Wings’ offense in the second half is a top-three 108.7.
For Dallas to put together a significant rally and clinch the final playoff spot, it’ll need Sabally to be spectacular, alongside the rest of the Wings’ big three: Arike Ogunbowale and Natasha Howard.
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Satou Sabally with the And-1!
Satou Sabally with the And-1!, 08/30/2024
DOWN: Atlanta Dream‘s offensive efficiency
While injuries to Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard hampered the Dream in the first half, they are just 4-5 since the Olympic break, winning just one of their past six games with an offensive rating of 10th in that span. Tuesday was a prime opportunity for Atlanta to surpass the Chicago Sky, its main competition for the final playoff spot. Instead, it fell to the shorthanded Phoenix Mercury.
Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been reliable, but it’s shooting a league-worst 40.0% from the floor post-Olympics. Double-double machine Tina Charles needs more help from the starting backcourt, which is collectively hitting just 36% of its shots since the Olympics. To guarantee a postseason run, those numbers must improve.
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Mercury get it done on both ends of the court
Mikiah Herbert Harrigan blocks Allisha Gray’s shot, and the Mercury capitalize on the other end when Natasha Mack scores.
Other games to watch
Dallas Wings at Atlanta Dream
Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
Both are still in the playoff hunt and will approach this game as a must-win. The Dream climbed the standings with a three-win streak in August and were poised for the eight-seed, but have since lost five of six. Don’t count out the Wings, though, with how their offense has shown up recently.
Las Vegas Aces at Connecticut Sun
Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
The Aces are 1-0 in this season series, but the Sun didn’t have Marina Mabrey for that June game. With Connecticut trying to fight off Minnesota for the two-seed and Las Vegas dueling Seattle for the four-seed, keep an eye on this one and the final meeting on Sept. 15.
Minnesota Lynx at Indiana Fever
Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
The Lynx and Fever are tied for the second-best record since mid-June, at 15-6. They’ve so far split their season series, with both games in Minneapolis. They have also each lost just once since the Olympic break — Indiana’s coming at the hands of Minnesota. A Fever win on Friday would prove that they can contend with the league’s best and be a threat for a first-round playoff upset.
