Harris has a narrow lead on Trump post-debate, prediction markets say
No one wants to back the wrong horse, especially in the presidential race. But with the first (and quite possibly last) 2024 debate in America’s rearview mirror and the election on the horizon, many are left wondering and wagering about what is to come next. Naturally, the online betting world wants a slice of the jackpot.
After the September 10 debate, Vice President Harris’ odds were placed at 56 cents per share compared to former President Donald Trump’s 47 cents — according to PredictIt, an online prediction market based in New Zealand. While they were almost neck-and-neck before the debate, Trump has lagged behind Harris for some time now on the platform, steadily declining while Harris had made gains since July 31.
Americans have a long and contested history of betting on non-presidential events. And interest in gambling has, more or less, steadily risen over the last decade, from 39% participation rates in 2009 to 49% last year, per the American Gaming Association. Recently, sports betting has taken off especially amongst younger generations.
While prediction markets like PredictIt have been around for quite some time, they’ve started to grow in popularity recently. “It’s kind of a breakout for this year, for the prediction markets,” Harry Crane, a professor of statistics at Rutgers University, told Fortune.
On the crypto side of the internet, Trump typically fares better. But barking about dogs didn’t seem to do the candidate any favors. That is, at least, if you look at Polymarket, a cryptocurrency based prediction market.
One hour before the debate, Harris stood at 46% and Trump at 52%, according to PolyMarket. After their performances, Harris edged ahead of Trump, as bolstered by celebrity Taylor Swift’s endorsement, standing at 49.1 versus 48.7 cents per share at 11:30, reports Axios. Of course, prediction markets are a fickle beast. While Trump has less of a lead than he once did, he still stands ahead of Harris as of Wednesday afternoon at 50%, compared to the vice president’s 49%.
Election Betting Odds, a site that collects data from prediction markets including PredictIt and Polymarket as well as UK’s Betfair and Smarkets, puts Harris just slightly ahead at 51.0% compared Trump’s 47.7% as of Wednesday afternoon. And when it comes to the stock market itself, Trump’s decline has been reflected in shares of his media companies nosediving.
At least one thing is clear, according to Rutgers’ Crane: Prediction markets are a good sign of what’s to come.
“If you’re looking for a single piece of information to indicate what’s going to happen in the election, the markets tend to be the single best piece of information available that’s out there,” he told Fortune. “The poll is asking you who you’re going to vote for… nobody cares who you’re going to vote for. What people care about is who’s going to win,” he says.
