UFC 309 early look: Is Jones-Miocic the right heavyweight title fight?
Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic are finally back into the UFC fold.
Jones (27-1, 1 NC) will return from a torn labrum injury to defend his heavyweight title on Nov. 16 against arguably the best heavyweight ever in Miocic (20-4) in the main event of UFC 309 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. In the co-main event, Michael Chandler (23-8) will pivot from a marquee matchup against Conor McGregor to a rematch against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira (34-10).
Oliveira will enter UFC 309 as ESPN’s No. 3 ranked lightweight. Chandler is unranked.
Big questions loom after the rebooking of Jones and Miocic atop a PPV card. How sharp should we expect both heavyweights to be by November? Just how good is UFC 309 now? Will we see a few retirements by the end of the night?
Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim address these questions and more, including assessing what interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall should do at the end of the main event.
What will prove tougher to overcome: Jones’ injury recovery or Miocic’s lengthy layoff?
Okamoto: The layoff, by far. Pectoral muscle tears are not an extremely common sports injury, but they do happen, and there is an established track record of athletes returning from them with no issues. Jones is no longer a 20-year-old; he’s 37, but I don’t see any reason to think this injury would derail his career (remember, I’m not a doctor, but there’s no evidence to suggest it would). Miocic is 42 and, let’s call it like it is, basically a retired heavyweight coming back to face the greatest fighter of all time. This is a far greater challenge than recovering from a torn pec.
Wagenheim: It’s got to be the Miocic layoff, especially since it took him from his late 30s (not so old for a heavyweight) into his early 40s. Jones has also been inactive, so he likely won’t be at his sharpest. That’s an opportunity lost. Jones is the GOAT, and your best shot is to catch him at less than 100%. If he’d been given the chance, Tom Aspinall might have been able to capitalize. Instead, the UFC went the Old-Timer’s Day route, and I don’t expect Miocic to be anywhere near as sharp or opportunistic as Aspinall would have been.
Hale: Sure, recovering from the pectoral injury has been challenging, but Jones isn’t entering a bench-pressing competition. He’s going into a fight where he will utilize his arms and legs to defeat his opponent. Miocic hasn’t fought since Francis Ngannou knocked him out in 2021, but, more importantly, he hasn’t won a fight since beating Daniel Cormier behind closed doors at the UFC Apex in 2020. To put this in perspective, Fedor Emelianenko has a notch in the win column within this time frame. To make matters worse, Miocic is 42 and up against two unbeaten things: Jon Jones and Father Time. To ask any fighter to return from nearly four years out of competition is challenging enough, but to do this in your 40s against the best to ever do it? Good luck.
Is an Oliveira rematch the best fight for Chandler instead of McGregor?
Hale: *Laughs in Conor McGregor voice* Absolutely not. Remember in 2021 when Oliveira did “Do Bronx” things, yanked himself out of the clutches of defeat and pulverized Chandler? This fight makes little sense for both involved parties. Oliveira is a nightmare to deal with, as his mixture of devastating striking and jiu-jitsu can be a recipe for disaster for opponents. What does Oliveira get out of this? It’s very “been there, done that” and McGregor isn’t going to answer that call if he wins. As for Chandler, he just went from facing a striker who hasn’t won a fight in over four years to the UFC leader in finishes who just fought in April. Chandler is 38, has to shave his body back down to lightweight instead of welterweight and has lost three of his past four fights, with his only win against Tony Ferguson. The McGregor fight felt like one in which he could have a chance of winning. If the UFC wanted to book a rematch for Chandler, why didn’t they go with Dan Hooker? Rafael Fiziev would have been fun. But Oliveira? Yikes.
Wagenheim: No fight is going to measure up to one with McGregor, of course, not just in the bank account but also in the visibility. If you beat McGregor, you make the biggest splash possible in front of a massive audience that reaches way beyond the MMA hard-cores. And that win would have been attainable against a largely inactive McGregor, who in recent times has been seen more often in a bar than in a gym. Oliveira is a different story. He is both a hungrier fighter than McGregor and a tougher matchup. And yet the reward for fighting him will not come close to what Chandler would have earned, in money and fame, in a fight with McGregor. After sitting idle for two years waiting in vain for Conor to show up in the cage, though, Chandler needs to just take what he can get. At age 38, there’s no more time to waste.
Okamoto: I would have done a rematch for Chandler, but I would have done Justin Gaethje. The only reason I say that is because Oliviera just lost a No. 1 contender bout to Arman Tsarukyan. If the UFC had booked Chandler vs. Gaethje II, I think they could promote it as a No. 1 contender bout, which would be a nod to Gaethje for putting his No. 1 spot on the line in a BMF fight against Max Holloway at UFC 300. Gaethje did the company a favor in taking that risk, and it cost him. I’d like to see him get an immediate chance to win that opportunity back. Booking him against Chandler would have done that I think, but I know that Gaethje wasn’t necessarily looking to fight as soon as November. I’m very happy with the matchup and it makes sense, but ideally, I would have done the Gaethje fight if possible.
By this time next year, Bo Nickal will be _________.
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Bo Nickal needs just 52 seconds to earn impressive submission win
Bo Nickal pulls off the submission win over Donovan Beard in just 52 seconds in the first round.
Wagenheim: Less of a mystery. He has mowed down his competition so far, and while his opponent at the Garden, Paul Craig, is one of the UFC’s strongest on the ground, Nickal has already competed in jiu-jitsu against the best in the world, Gordon Ryan, and done better than a lot of black belts. As Nickal’s MMA career progresses, he will eventually encounter someone with quick, heavy hands who can keep the fight standing long enough to give a wrestling specialist problems. Will it happen within a year? I hope so. I want to see what the sport has in Nickal.
Hale: Ranked. The UFC middleweight division has become fascinating over the past 18 months with Dricus Du Plessis reigning over the division. He has plenty of potential matchups on the table, including a rematch with Sean Strickland, the winner of Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev, and Alex Pereira, who is looming. Being close to title contention by this time next year doesn’t seem plausible. Instead, Nickal will crack the top 15 in the next 12 months. How high will he go? It’s hard to tell because he hasn’t been very active with two fights in 2023 and two in 2024. He must pick up the pace to get within striking distance of a title opportunity. But should he defeat Craig (he should), he’ll get a ranked opponent and find himself in the lower half of the middleweight rankings.
Okamoto: Ranked. Probably top 15. If he were fighting more frequently, I would guess top 10, but he hasn’t been in a huge rush to fight three or four times in a year, which is actually good. Some canceled bouts have played a part in that, but I think it’s reasonable to believe that he will have fought two or (at most) three times by this time next year. That allows him to face a top-15 opponent, and I do like his chances to win pretty much any fight the UFC gives him outside of the top 10. Once he gets into the top 10, things will get very interesting. But one year from now? I think top 15 is most likely.
If you were Tom Aspinall, what would you do after Jones-Miocic ends?
Okamoto: If Jones wins, stick my finger in his chest and tell him he’s not the real champion. The time to be respectful is over, quite frankly. I get it; if Jones wins, it should be his night — but not really. This is not a real heavyweight title fight. It’s just not. Jones and Miocic have done way more than Aspinall has in their respective careers, but obviously, a lot of what Jones and Miocic did was years ago. Aspinall is the No. 1 heavyweight in the world. And if he ever wants to prove it against Jones, he will have to create a stir, a demand, for the fight that will make it so big, that Jones won’t be able to refuse. So, this is one time where I would tell Aspinall to go ahead and act a fool. Crash a news conference. Force the UFC to restrain you physically. Let Jones know that even if he wins at Madison Square Garden in his home state, this ain’t his night, because that ain’t his belt.
Wagenheim: First and foremost, Aspinall should continue to be Aspinall. You’re the best in the world, so don’t lower yourself. If I’m Aspinall, I keep it real but dial up my boldest self-confidence. We’ve heard him give respect for all Jones has done in the sport, so there’s no need to go there again. If Jones wins, the immediate aftermath of the fight would be the perfect time for Aspinall to look straight into his eyes and say, “Your time was yesterday, and my time is right now. I am the best heavyweight in the world. If you think you can beat me, old man, give me a try.” If Miocic wins, Aspinall can be a bit gentler with his callout, assuming Stipe hasn’t left his gloves at the center of the cage.
Hale: Be a menace on social media. Aspinall has been needling at Jones for several months and has slowly gone from respectful to flippant. There’s no need to be pleasant about this any longer because good guys almost always finish last (or don’t get the fights they desire) when they play nice and ask. Don’t ask, tell. Tell the world that Jon Jones cannot be the greatest mixed martial artist of all time if he doesn’t fight you, whether true or not. Aspinall must now target a win in the court of public opinion and attempt to shame Jones into a fight. Jones knows that Aspinall is on the hunt and has attempted to feign disinterest. However, sooner or later, he must answer the call or retire.
What’s your bold prediction related to UFC 309?
Wagenheim: Miocic by knockout. I can’t truly envision that happening, to be honest. This bout will probably be another depressing reminder that fighters rarely know when to walk away. But I feel compelled to go bolder than bold with this prediction, empowered by my belief in the law of karma. A Jones downfall sure would serve the UFC its just due for booking an illegitimate heavyweight title defense while a true banger of a belt unification bout sits waiting for the matchmakers to get around to it. And after the fight, of course, Miocic peels off his gloves, leaves them in the cage and walks out, turning his phone off.
Hale: I don’t know how “bold” this is, but Jones-Miocic won’t make it to the Octagon. The fight was announced and nobody outside Jones and Miocic was thrilled about it. The MMA gods work in mysterious ways and given Miocic’s age, the idea of an injury during training camp feels like a safe bet. At 42, it doesn’t take much to cause an injury, and Miocic going into a full training camp will put a lot of strain on his body. Jones is no spring chicken either and coming off of pectoral surgery puts his injury risk potential higher than most. The UFC better put both fighters in bubble wrap and hope for the best. And should one of them get hurt, the fight will just be off. There’s no way either of them would face Aspinall on short notice.
Okamoto: Jones is forced to respond to boos from the fans at one point or another. Maybe it’ll happen at the news conference, if and when the subject of Aspinall gets brought up. Perhaps it will happen on fight night if he downplays any mention of Aspinall in the postfight. I don’t know when it’ll happen, but I’m curious to see if it will and how Jones will respond. He’s had to react to boos before, and he’s typically handled it well, especially in person. Still, because any boos here would be so tied to his legacy and competition, it’ll be interesting to see how he responds. Maybe I’m wrong, and in his homecoming (and first UFC appearance in New York), he’ll get nothing but love. Still, I think the knowledgeable fan base wants to see him unify his belt against Aspinall enough that if he tries to sidestep that, they will let him know in some way.
