10 biggest risk/reward players in drafts
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Andre Snellings, ESPN
Championship-winning fantasy basketball teams are typically built around a strong foundation of production from your best players. It is particularly important to get consistent, top-tier production from players that aren’t necessarily taken at the very top of the draft.
Often, that requires an element of risk. Taking a gamble on a talented player who — for one reason or another — other fantasy managers don’t want to draft or are shying away from until rounds three or four.
So, what players have the ability to produce like first round-round picks but might be available rounds later?
Conversely, what players might you spend a high draft pick on whose history makes them enough of a risk that the pick could end up sinking your season?
The answers to these questions could be the difference between a fantasy hoops championship or finishing on the outside looking in. Let’s dig in.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic aren’t the only players to project for more than 60 fantasy points per game this season. Embiid does as well, fresh off averaging more than 61 FP/game last season. The problem is, while Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69, Embiid played only 39 games last season and has never played more than 68 in his career. Because of his injury history, Embiid will likely slide several slots down from where his averages would typically slot him in fantasy drafts. Even still, he will probably require a first-round pick, a valuable commodity for any team. If he stays healthy much of the season and is available for the fantasy hoops playoffs, Embiid’s production could win fantasy leagues. But if he plays fewer than 52 games, the way he has in three of the past five seasons, spending a first-rounder on Embiid could be enough to sink many fantasy squads.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
Prior to last season, Davis had averaged 44 games and James 52 games per season over the previous three seasons combined. This lack of availability caused both to slide in fantasy hoops drafts last season, but both turned in iron man seasons of 76 and 71 games, respectively. As a result, they both finished top 10, with the fourth- and eighth-highest fantasy points totals in the league. James turns 40 years old this season, and Davis has played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-season career. They still likely slide a bit in fantasy drafts but will require high picks, making both star Lakers players who can either win or lose your fantasy league based upon their availability.
After missing 73 games last season due to a combination of suspension and injury, Morant has become the forgotten superstar in the league. Fantasy hoops owners should be sure to remember his 26.7 PPG, 7.5 APG and 5.8 RPG from his past three seasons. It’s also worth keeping in mind that with Morant having just turned 25, he is still improving and just getting into his prime years. Morant’s playoffs averages are higher than his regular-season averages, and if he approaches or surpasses those numbers while playing 70 or more games, Morant could be a league-winning draft pick taken outside the first round of most leagues.
Durant, like LeBron, is another aging legend who had missed a lot of games in recent seasons before a renaissance in the past year. After playing only 137 of a possible 308 games between the end of the 2019 playoffs and the start of the 2023-24 season, Durant bounced back in a huge way and played 75 of 82 games last season. Another season like that, likely from a second- or third-round fantasy pick, would be huge. But Durant will be 36 before the season begins and is in season 18, making him a risky pick in the early rounds.
Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks
Irving has averaged stellar per-game numbers over his past five seasons: 26.7 PPG (49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, 91.2 FT%), 5.7 APG, 4.9 RPG, 3.0 3PG,1.3 SPG and 0.6 BPG with only 2.2 TO/G. Unfortunately, due to a combination of injuries and off-the-court issues, he has averaged only 44.2 games per season during that stretch. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in the league in fantasy points per game but 47th in total fantasy points. His availability versus his draft status could make a major impact on his fantasy hoops squads, for good or for ill.
Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks
Lillard was a perennial borderline first-round pick in fantasy leagues for much of the past decade with the Trail Blazers, but injuries caused him to miss almost half of his past two seasons in Portland. Last season, his first with the Bucks, Lillard played 73 games, his highest total since the 2018-19 season, but his averages were down across the board as he learned to play next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Lillard also, reportedly, was dealing with off-court issues that could have affected his focus last season. If he finds his level this season and maintains the availability last season, Lillard still has top-tier fantasy impact upside.
LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
After winning Rookie of the Year in his first campaign and earning an All-Star nod as a sophomore, Ball projected to a top-10 fantasy producer going into his third season. Unfortunately, a series of serious injuries, mainly to an ankle, have limited Ball to only 58 of 164 possible games over the past two seasons and slowed his development. But Ball is still only 23 with sky-high upside, and if he can stay on the court, he could give a team first-round fantasy production while likely being drafted rounds later.
Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans
Williamson averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 4.0 APG from 2020-21 to 2022-23, but played only 90 of 236 possible regular-season games during that span. He bounced back with a career-high 70 games last season, but his scoring and rebound numbers were down on a Pelicans squad full of talented scorers. He did pick it up late in the season, putting up 27.1 PPG in a 10-game stretch between the end of March and mid-April. If Williamson can return to that level or beyond, reasonable goals for a young player still only 24 years old, he has major impact potential if he stays on the court. That’s always a big “if,” though.
Leonard’s name had become synonymous with the term “load management.” Leonard had played 52 to 60 games in four of the six seasons leading up to last, but in the other two he had played zero and nine games, respectively, due to injury. Last season, though, Leonard broke out with 68 games played, his most since 2016-17, and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. Unfortunately, Leonard injured a knee again late in the season and missed 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games (including playoffs). A healthy Leonard, on a Clippers squad without Paul George, has top-25 fantasy potential. Using a high draft pick on a player with his availability history is, like many of the players on this list, a risk that could pay championship-winning dividends or lead to another wasted fantasy hoops campaign.
