Three sweeps? Experts pick first round of WNBA playoffs

Can the Las Vegas Aces and superstar A’ja Wilson three-peat as WNBA champions? Can the New York Liberty or the Connecticut Sun get their franchise’s first title? Might the Minnesota Lynx claim their fifth crown? Or could the league champion come from beyond the top four seeds? That includes the Indiana Fever appearing in the playoffs for the first time since 2016, led by rookie point guard Caitlin Clark.

The WNBA playoffs open Sunday. The final playoff team, the No. 8 seed Atlanta Dream, earned their spot Thursday, the last day of the regular season. The Dream got a 78-67 victory at New York, a game that admittedly meant nothing to the Liberty, who were already assured of their seed and the league’s best record.

But now those teams will turn around and start the playoffs at 1 p.m. ET Sunday (ESPN) in New York, followed by No. 6 Indiana at No. 3 Connecticut (ABC, 3 p.m. ET).

Then Diana Taurasi, in her 20th and possibly last WNBA season, will lead the No. 7 seed Phoenix Mercury against No. 2 Minnesota (5 p.m. ET, ESPN). That’s followed by the No. 4 Aces hosting the No. 5 Seattle Storm (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). The first round is best-of-three series, with the higher seed hosting the first two games.

No WNBA team has won three championships in a row since the Houston Comets won four straight in the league’s first four seasons. The Comets disbanded after the 2008 season.

The Aces, however, could face a potential meeting with the Liberty in the semifinals; those teams met in the WNBA Finals last year. New York has played for the WNBA championship five times but hasn’t won a title yet.

The first-round winners will play best-of-five semifinal series, followed by the best-of-five WNBA Finals. We break down what we’ll see as the postseason gets underway and predict which teams will advance.

Regular season series: New York won 3-1

How New York got here: The Liberty fell short of their goal for a championship in last year’s WNBA Finals but have been better in Year 2 of their superteam, occupying the top spot in the standings for most of the season. Their starting five has another year of chemistry under its belt. Reigning MVP Breanna Stewart is still the second-best player in the world. Jonquel Jones had stretches where she looked like her 2021 MVP form, while Sabrina Ionescu took a step forward in her development. Their retooled bench helped them defensively and with their overall depth. Altogether, it has left Liberty fans optimistic that this might finally be their year.

How Atlanta got here: The 2024 Dream have been a roller coaster. Injuries to Jordin Canada and Rhyne Howard during the first half of the season hampered their early development, and the Dream went 7-17. Even with those players back in the lineup after the Olympics, they were just .500 in the second half, and it took a win over the Liberty on the final day of the regular season to clinch a playoff spot. But Atlanta will enter its first-round series — its second consecutive playoff appearance — on a three-game winning streak, tied for its longest run of the season. One bright spot regardless of the ups and downs: All-time great Tina Charles has been a steadying force in her first season back in the WNBA since 2022, nearly averaging a double-double in her 13th campaign.

How they match up: New York dominated this regular-season series until Thursday, when the Dream looked like they were fighting for their playoff lives, while the Liberty looked like they knew they had nothing to gain or lose. Atlanta’s defense has been more reliable than its offense this season, but can it really twice slow down a Liberty offense that has been best in the league all summer? On paper, the reigning WNBA Finals runners-up with a plus-11.7 net rating (first in the league) should comfortably handle the team with the minus-3.6 net rating (seventh) that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2018. We’ll see if Thursday ends up being a preview of a more competitive series than expected.

Biggest concern for the higher seed? Dropping two of their last three regular-season games (to the Lynx and Dream) wasn’t the most confidence-instilling stretch for the Liberty. Ionescu hasn’t been as efficient in the second half of the season, Jones not as dominant. And their defense left a lot to be desired in those losses. New York will hope to leave those issues behind as it seeks to clinch the franchise’s first title.

What will most impact the series? This matchup features two recent No. 1 picks and U.S. Olympians: Ionescu (2020, 5-on-5 Olympian) and Howard (2022, 3×3 Olympian). It’s hard to see Atlanta pulling off the upset without a sensational series from Howard. Ionescu, meanwhile, will look to find some rhythm and efficiency as the postseason gets going. — Alexa Philippou

Who will win the series:

Pelton: Liberty in 2
Philippou: Liberty in 2
Voepel: Liberty in 2

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Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1

How Minnesota got here: The Lynx added two key free agents, guard Courtney Williams and forward Alanna Smith, both of whom played for Chicago in 2023. Combined, they have averaged just over 21 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists. Among Minnesota’s returning players from 2023, forward Napheesa Collier has been an MVP candidate, forward Bridget Carleton is having the best of her six seasons and guard Kayla McBride is averaging the most 3-pointers per game (2.7) of her 11 years in the league.

Minnesota is first in the WNBA in defensive rating and in 3-point percentage. The Lynx won the Commissioner’s Cup final over New York on June 25, but then hit a lull tied to Collier missing time with plantar fasciitis. Between June 27 and July 17, Minnesota was 4-5. But Collier played more like herself at the Paris Games, and since the Olympic break ended, the Lynx are 13-2. It’s notable those two losses include a meaningless 68-51 loss Thursday vs. Los Angeles in a game in which Minnesota rested Collier and McBride. The Lynx have been one of the league’s most consistent teams.

How Phoenix got here: The Mercury have been consistent, too, but not in as positive a way as the Lynx. Phoenix has hovered around .500 the entire season. Center Brittney Griner missed the first 10 games with a toe injury. Guard Natasha Cloud, wing Kahleah Copper and coach Nate Tibbett are all newcomers to the Mercury this season. Taurasi said there is still a lot this team is figuring out about itself. When the Mercury have looked good, they’ve been impressive. But they’ve also been blown out in some games. Copper (back injury) returned for the regular-season finale Thursday after missing the previous three games. She leads Phoenix in scoring, and it seems unlikely the Mercury can upset the Lynx without a big series from Copper.

How they match up: Minnesota’s three victories against Phoenix were all by double digits. The Mercury’s win in the series came on a last-second 3-pointer by Copper for an 81-80 win on June 7. The most recent matchup — an 89-76 Minnesota victory on Aug. 28 — was an example of why the Lynx are so hard to beat. They play exceptionally well as a team, their chemistry has been good even with the new pieces that they have added and their bench has been dependable.

Biggest concern for the higher seed? The Lynx have had very few games in which they just haven’t played well, and that’s especially true since the Olympic break. There is no reason to expect a letdown now. But the Mercury might be playing with a lot of emotion, especially with Taurasi potentially being in her last playoff. Because of the first-round format, a possible Game 3 in Phoenix is something the Lynx want to avoid.

What will most impact the series? How well Copper and Griner play will be a big factor in whether the Mercury can hang around and potentially force Game 3. The Mercury also must defend the perimeter at a high level with how well the Lynx shoot 3-pointers. If these playoff games go the same way the regular-season series went, Minnesota will sweep. — Michael Voepel

Who will win the series:

Pelton: Lynx in 2
Philippou: Lynx in 2
Voepel: Lynx in 2

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Regular season series: Connecticut won 3-1

How Connecticut got here: The formula for the Sun has been the same for a while, even with the change in Stephanie White taking over as coach last season when Curt Miller went to Los Angeles. Connecticut is very strong defensively — which sets the tone for everything else the Sun do — and balanced offensively. Guard/forward DeWanna Bonner and guard Marina Mabrey (acquired from Chicago via trade on July 17) lead six Sun players who average double figures in scoring. Alyssa Thomas leads Connecticut in assists and rebounds.

The Sun started the season 9-0, then lost their first game to New York on June 8. Connecticut’s performance has been a little more uneven since, but all 12 of the Sun’s losses are to playoff teams.

Obtaining Mabrey was an important move, as she fits very well with the Sun’s offense, shooting better than 41% from 3-point range. She also is a good personality fit for Connecticut, which has long leaned into the “you’re underestimating us” mentality.

How Indiana got here: One of the most interesting storylines in the league this year: the Fever going from a 1-8 start to getting the No. 6 seed and ending their seven-season playoff drought. They’ve done it led by lottery picks: back-to-back No. 1’s Aliyah Boston (2023) and Clark (2024) and No. 2 Kelsey Mitchell (2018). Clark seems a lock to follow Boston as Rookie of the Year; she leads the WNBA in assists and is in the top 10 in scoring. Clark’s connections with Boston in the post and fellow guard Mitchell have steadily grown and made the Fever a fun team to watch when they are clicking on offense.

Forward NaLyssa Smith has had big games and can be an important factor on the boards. Guard Lexie Hull has been an energizing force on defense. Guard Erica Wheeler and center Temi Fagbenle have shown terrific leadership as veterans in how they have treated young star Clark and helped her adjust to the league. For all the heat coach Christie Sides has taken from social media critics, she has kept the Fever’s focus on improving.

How they match up: Their first matchup — a 92-71 Sun victory — was the season-opening game for both teams, as well as Clark’s WNBA debut. The teams met again six days later at Indiana and it was a much different game, with the Sun winning 88-84. Connecticut won big again over Indiana 89-72 on June 10. The Fever’s 84-80 victory came Aug. 28.

The most obvious difference between the teams is experience: The Sun’s core of Thomas, Bonner and Brionna Jones have played in the WNBA Finals together. The Fever are a younger team, including a rookie point guard in Clark.

“We’re a different team than we were to start the season,” Sides said. “We’re ready and prepared for Sunday. [The Sun] can play some hella defense, and we’ve just got to be ready. They’re going to make everything hard.”

This will be the first chance in the playoffs for Mitchell, and Sides said that is one of the most gratifying parts of this season.

Biggest concern for the higher seed? Stopping Indiana’s offense has to be a concern, even for a good defensive team like the Sun. Mitchell and Clark have been a dynamic force in the backcourt, especially since the Olympic break.

Clark finished the regular season Thursday with 8 points, 8 assists and 5 rebounds in 20 minutes, playing limited time because the game had no impact on the Fever’s seed. Mitchell played just 5 minutes, getting 4 points — she was briefly shaken up and left the game. Sides said afterward Mitchell was fine but she didn’t want to take any chances. For the season, both Mitchell and Clark averaged 19.2 points, with Clark adding a league-best 8.4 assists plus 5.7 rebounds.

What will most impact the series? Indiana really needs to prove it can defend well when it means the most. The Fever have shown growth in that area, and they do have individual players who are strong defenders. But as a team, defense hasn’t been the Fever’s main calling card. Turnovers are the other major factor; the Fever sometimes have had stretches where their offense gets sloppy. And a team with veterans like Connecticut can take advantage of it. — Voepel

Who will win the series:

Pelton: Sun in 3
Philippou: Sun in 2
Voepel: Sun in 3

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(4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm

Regular season series: Las Vegas won 3-1

How Las Vegas got here: After cruising to the No. 1 seed last year with a 34-6 record, the back-to-back champs faced more adversity during the 2024 regular season. The Aces matched their 2023 losses during a 6-6 start without injured All-Star Chelsea Gray, and after four Las Vegas players helped the U.S. women to gold in Paris, the team came out of the Olympic break 2-4. Since then, the Aces have looked more like themselves, going 9-1 over their past 10 games with the only loss in that stretch to the Liberty with presumptive MVP A’ja Wilson sidelined by an ankle injury.

How Seattle got here: A year ago, the Storm were preparing for the lottery. Having added All-Stars Skylar Diggins-Smith and Nneka Ogwumike in free agency, Seattle more than doubled last season’s 11 wins. Despite Diggins-Smith’s strong play after the Olympic break, however, the Storm went 7-6 and played the final week of the season without key starters Jewell Loyd (knee) and Ezi Magbegor (concussion). Seattle hopes both will be back to start the playoffs.

How they match up: It’s a rematch of the 2020 WNBA Finals and a 2022 semifinals series, but the Storm now have different All-Stars around holdovers Loyd, Magbegor and Gabby Williams. Seattle won the first meeting between the teams in Las Vegas, but the Aces won the next three thanks in part to their shooting edge. Las Vegas outscored the Storm 66-27 from beyond the arc in the three wins.

Biggest concern for the higher seed? Seattle is an atypically difficult first-round matchup for the Aces, who swept below-.500 teams in the first round in each of the past two years as the No. 1 seed. At 24-15 heading into Thursday’s regular-season finale, the Storm have the best record for any team without home-court advantage since 2002. In a year where five teams separated themselves from the rest of the league, Las Vegas might have to beat three of them to win a third consecutive title.

What will most impact the series? It’s simplistic, but Seattle’s health. Without Loyd and Magbegor, the Storm’s spacing and depth were issues when these teams played Tuesday in Seattle. The Aces were able to stifle the Storm with a zone, holding them to 11 points in the fourth quarter. If Loyd and Magbegor aren’t 100%, it will be difficult for Seattle to pull the upset, so it’s notable that Storm coach Noelle Quinn said Thursday night that “there’s no question” Loyd will play in Sunday’s Game 1. — Kevin Pelton

Who will win the series:

Pelton: Aces in 2
Philippou: Aces in 2
Voepel: Aces in 2