WNBA playoff predictions: Aces three-peat? Liberty first? Lynx return to dominance?
After one of the most-watched and highest-rated regular seasons in league history, now the fun really begins. The 2024 WNBA playoffs open Sunday with all eight teams tipping off the first round.
The No. 1 seed New York Liberty host the No. 8 seed Atlanta Dream (1 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun host the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever (3 p.m. ET, ABC). Sunday evening’s games feature the No. 2 Minnesota Lynx hosting the No. 7 Phoenix Mercury (5 p.m. ET, ESPN), capped by the No. 4 Las Vegas Aces hosting the No. 5 Seattle Storm (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).
First-round games are a best-of-three format, with the higher seeds hosting the first two games and lower seeds hosting a potential Game 3. The semifinals open a week from Sunday.
Which team will ultimately take home the 2024 WNBA championship? ESPN’s panel of women’s basketball experts — Michael Voepel, Kevin Pelton, Alexa Philippou and Katie Barnes — dissects that question and other storylines heading into this weekend’s games, and predicts how the postseason will play out.
1:43
Ryan Ruocco wants Aces to be a ‘confident team’ in playoffs
Ryan Ruocco joins “NBA Today” and previews the first-round matchup between No. 4 Las Vegas Aces and No. 5 Seattle Storm in the WNBA playoffs.
Will the Aces three-peat?
Barnes: I’m inclined to say yes. Although the Aces got off to a rocky start, going 6-6 in their first 12 games, they had a league-best 9-1 record over the last 10 games of the regular season. Their five-game winning streak is the longest active streak in the WNBA. Las Vegas is also healthy, with Chelsea Gray rejoining the team after missing the first 12 games. She has steadily looked more like herself over the course of the season. There’s something to be said for peaking at the right time, and Las Vegas is playing its best basketball of the season right now.
Pelton: To do it, the Aces will have to travel the toughest gauntlet in modern WNBA history. Five teams, including the Aces, went 25-15 or better this season. Las Vegas could face three of them in succession: Seattle, New York and either Connecticut or Minnesota. No team has beaten three opponents with a .625 win percentage or better en route to the title since the 2000 Houston Comets (Sacramento, Los Angeles and New York).
Voepel: As Katie said, what we are seeing from the Aces now makes you think they really are going to three-peat. It’s also tough to pick against the team with the best player in the world right now in A’ja Wilson. But because they are the No. 4 seed, the Aces have a very tough road ahead. Can they do it? Yes.
Philippou: The Aces might have been up and down most of the season, but it really did not feel like a three-peat was on the horizon when they suffered a stretch of five losses in seven games, starting with their final game before the Olympic break and continuing through August.
But is anyone going to want to play a Las Vegas team that has won nine of its past 10 contests? One that has Wilson, Gray looking more like herself, plus has stabilized on the defensive end? That managed to erase a 20-point deficit and nearly knock off the Liberty without Wilson? It wouldn’t be shocking if those indicators are the beginning of a storybook ending awaiting Wilson and Las Vegas.
2:14
Do the Dream have a shot vs. the Liberty and Sabrina Ionescu?
Ryan Ruocco joins “NBA Today” to break down the first-round matchup between the New York Liberty and the Atlanta Dream, emphasizing the Liberty’s chances at a title run with Sabrina Ionescu.
What are the biggest reasons the Liberty might, or might not, win the title?
Philippou: On the whole, the Liberty are better than they were in 2023, when they reached the Finals. And yet, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones haven’t been quite as dominant in the second half of 2024. Ionescu, in particular, has seen a drop-off in her efficiency: She averaged 19.8 points per game on 42.5% shooting (35.7% from 3) pre-Olympics versus 15.0 PPG, 33.3% shooting (28.9% from 3) post-Olympics.
If chalk holds, it’s tough to see a scenario in which the Liberty get past the two-time defending champion Aces and red-hot Lynx without Ionescu playing like she did in the first half of the season. And as Pelton will elaborate on below, Jones would be a huge X factor in the frontcourt going up against both those squads.
Pelton: The addition of Leonie Fiebich is the biggest reason to believe in this year’s Liberty when last year’s team fell short. When asked by cohost Megan Rapinoe on last week’s “A Touch More” podcast who could be a surprise player in the playoffs, Sue Bird highlighted Fiebich, whose defensive versatility and dangerous shooting (43% on 3s) make her a perfect fit for series against the other contenders.
Voepel: The Liberty have the best record. They also have two former MVPs (Breanna Stewart and Jones) and the experience of making it to the Finals last year. They had the Aces’ number this season, going 3-0 against Las Vegas. And though the franchise is 0-5 when playing for the championship, most of that is ancient history (1997-2002) and not applicable to anyone currently with the team. However …
In all sports, there are franchises that over long periods of time, regardless of personnel changes, never quite get over the hump. Have the Liberty players internalized any of that? They might say they haven’t, but “seeking their first championship” is part of the playoff dialogue with New York, as it is with Connecticut. Also, if seeds hold, beating the defending champion Aces isn’t going to win New York the title. It would just get the Liberty to the Finals, and if they meet Minnesota there, the Lynx had the regular-season advantage at 3-1, counting the Commissioner’s Cup final.
THE WNBA PLAYOFFS ARE SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/YUpdRujZ9a
— ESPN (@espn) September 20, 2024
After so much talk of superteams the past two years, could Minnesota surprise some people and win the title?
Voepel: It’s not going to be a surprise at this point if Minnesota wins. It might have seemed that way before this season started. But as soon as we saw the Lynx in action, it was clear their offseason moves had worked and they were playing well together. They went through a brief tough stretch between winning the Commissioner’s Cup final and the Olympic break, due mostly to Napheesa Collier dealing with plantar fasciitis. Since play resumed after the Paris Games, Minnesota has been the best overall team.
Barnes: Absolutely! The Lynx have been one of the most consistent teams all season. Despite not being one of the favorites at the beginning of the year, Minnesota has proved that the second seed is no fluke. The Lynx boast the second-best defensive rating in the WNBA and lead the league in assist percentage on made field goals at 76.4%. In an era of superteams that focuses on collections of individual talent and high-profile superstars, the Lynx embody just how far chemistry and buy-in can take a team.
Pelton: Without question. Minnesota will be heavily favored in the first round and would have home-court advantage against Connecticut in Round 2, having just beat the Sun on the road after losing the first two head-to-head matchups. Looking ahead to the Finals, the Lynx took three of four matchups against both New York (including the Commissioner’s Cup final) and Las Vegas.
1:33
Ryan Ruocco doesn’t see the Lynx slowing down anytime soon
Ryan Ruocco joins “NBA Today” to discuss the matchup between Napheesa Collier’s Lynx and the Phoenix Mercury
Do any other teams have a realistic shot at winning the championship? Is there a dark horse?
Philippou: Aside from the Liberty, Lynx and Aces, Connecticut is the only other team I could see potentially making the Finals. The Sun have regularly shown that they’re dangerous to count out in the playoffs (see: previous runs to the Finals in 2019 and 2022). This is also a team that has acknowledged its championship window is closing with Alyssa Thomas, DeWanna Bonner and Brionna Jones all free agents after this season, so that’s extra motivation.
Pelton: I think we’re sleeping on Connecticut a bit. The Sun ended up with the league’s second-best point differential after blowing out Chicago in the regular-season finale, and the addition of Marina Mabrey has given them six of the WNBA’s top 40 or so players.
Voepel: The Sun in 2024 could be like the Fever in 2012. That year, Indiana had the fourth-best record in the league (the playoffs were still divided between the Western and Eastern Conferences) and had to defeat the two teams with the best records (Minnesota and Connecticut) to win the championship. The 2012 Fever had 33-year-old star Tamika Catchings, who won her first WNBA title. The 2024 Sun have 32-year-old Thomas seeking her first WNBA championship. Everything just came together at the right time for the Fever that postseason, even though they were not the favorites. Another link: Sun head coach Stephanie White was an assistant with the 2012 Fever.
Which player might have the single biggest impact on the postseason?
Pelton: Jonquel Jones. Last year, Jones was the Liberty’s best player in the playoffs, averaging 17.0 PPG, 11.6 RPG and 2.4 BPG. If New York gets that version of Jones with a more typical playoff performance from Stewart, the Liberty will be nearly impossible to beat. Jones dominated three matchups as New York swept the season series with Las Vegas, averaging 19.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists.
Voepel: If Las Vegas gets “Playoff Chelsea” out of Gray, it could be a big key in the Aces winning. She was otherworldly for Las Vegas in winning WNBA Finals MVP in 2022. And although she was injured in Game 3 of the Finals last year, her overall performance in the regular season and playoffs was huge again.
This also be a signature postseason for the Liberty’s Stewart, much like 2018 and 2020 were for her when she won titles with Seattle.
Philippou: Napheesa Collier. She would likely be the MVP if Wilson wasn’t having such an utterly dominant, historic season. It’s notable that the Lynx’s only back-to-back losses on the year came when she exacerbated her plantar fasciitis and didn’t close out the game, and then the two contests where she was sidelined.
Collier can’t do it single-handedly; Alanna Smith, Kayla McBride and others have to do their parts. And she has never quite been in this position before: The Lynx haven’t won a playoff series since 2017. Collier overall has appeared in nine postseason games, playing in series in 2020 (0-3 versus Seattle) and 2023 (1-2 versus Connecticut).
But if Minnesota wins its fifth championship and first since 2017, Collier will be its superstar, its driving force and the face of a storied run.
How does the WNBA build on the momentum of this regular season in the playoffs?
Pelton: The league won’t maximize the momentum without a guaranteed home game for Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever — or the Seattle Storm, two of the top four teams in average attendance. Because those teams didn’t finish in the top four of the standings, they’ll play at home only if they can win one of their first two games on the road. At a minimum, now that charter travel has been fully phased in, the WNBA should go back to the 1-1-1 format for the first round and guarantee all eight playoff teams a home game. Better yet, let’s make the first round a best-of-five series.
Voepel: The previous best-of-three format started with the first game at the lower seed, then two games (if necessary) at the higher seed. The issue with that was it potentially put the higher seed in a more difficult position — on the road — for the first game.
The problems with the current format: There’s no guarantee of at least one home game for the lower seeds, and it puts the higher seed in the position of potentially having to win the series on the road. Kevin provides solutions, but both cost more money. Still, it’s time to implement one or the other.
As for what could happen to maximize the popularity boost the league got this season, everyone loves a final series that goes the distance. In the past decade, the WNBA Finals had that in 2015 (Lynx over Fever 3-2), 2016 (Sparks over Lynx 3-2) and 2017 (Lynx over Sparks 3-2). The only one since was in 2019 (Mystics over Sun 3-2). Another epic Finals would be a fitting end to the 2024 season.
2024 WNBA playoff predictions
Click here for ESPN’s series-by-series first-round preview.
Who wins each best-of-three first-round series?
(1) New York Aces vs. (8) Atlanta Dream
Katie Barnes: Liberty in 2
Sean Hurd: Liberty in 2
Myron Medcalf: Liberty in 2
Eric Moody: Liberty in 2
Neil Paine: Liberty in 2
Kevin Pelton: Liberty in 2
Alexa Philippou: Liberty in 2
Michael Voepel: Liberty in 2
Josh Weinfuss: Liberty in 2
(2) Minnesota Lynx vs. (7) Phoenix Mercury
Barnes: Lynx in 2
Hurd: Lynx in 3
Medcalf: Lynx in 2
Moody: Lynx in 2
Paine: Lynx in 2
Pelton: Lynx in 2
Philippou: Lynx in 2
Voepel: Lynx in 2
Weinfuss: Lynx in 3
(3) Connecticut Sun vs. (6) Indiana Fever
Barnes: Fever in 3
Hurd: Sun in 3
Medcalf: Fever in 3
Moody: Sun in 3
Paine: Sun in 3
Pelton: Sun in 3
Philippou: Sun in 2
Voepel: Sun in 3
Weinfuss: Fever in 3
(4) Las Vegas Aces vs. (5) Seattle Storm
Barnes: Aces in 2
Hurd: Aces in 2
Medcalf: Aces in 3
Moody: Aces in 3
Paine: Aces in 3
Pelton: Aces in 2
Philippou: Aces in 2
Voepel: Aces in 2
Weinfuss: Aces in 2
Which teams will meet in the WNBA Finals?
Barnes: Lynx vs. Aces
Hurd: Lynx vs. Aces
Medcalf: Lynx vs. Aces
Moody: Lynx vs. Liberty
Paine: Lynx vs. Liberty
Pelton: Lynx vs. Liberty
Philippou: Lynx vs. Liberty
Voepel: Lynx vs. Aces
Weinfuss: Fever vs. Liberty
Which team will win the championship?
Barnes: Aces
Hurd: Aces
Medcalf: Aces
Moody: Liberty
Paine: Liberty
Pelton: Liberty
Philippou: Liberty
Voepel: Aces
Weinfuss: Fever
Which player will be the Finals MVP?
Barnes: A’ja Wilson, Aces
Hurd: A’ja Wilson, Aces
Medcalf: A’ja Wilson, Aces
Moody: Breanna Stewart, Liberty
Paine: Breanna Stewart, Liberty
Pelton: Breanna Stewart, Liberty
Philippou: Breanna Stewart, Liberty
Voepel: A’ja Wilson, Aces
Weinfuss: Caitlin Clark, Fever
