Liverpool gambling with high stakes over Salah, Van Dijk, Alexander-Arnold

Liverpool could lose three of their best players — Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold — for nothing in less than 100 days. That is the stark reality of the contract chess game being played out right now at Anfield, because the sands of time really are running down to the final grains.

Salah (32 years old), Van Dijk (33) and Alexander-Arnold (25) are all out of contract at the end of this season and, as a consequence, will each be able to negotiate with a non-English club from Jan. 1, 2025, over a free agent transfer at the end of this season. Each member of the trio has a different value to the team, and the three are at different stages of their careers, but because of the way Liverpool have rolled the dice, they have now become inextricably connected to each other to the extent that whoever’s future is settled first will have a direct impact on what happens with the others.

Liverpool’s owners, Fenway Sports Group (FSG), and their football operations team, led by football CEO Michael Edwards, know exactly what is at stake in the weeks ahead. The silence from within the Liverpool boardroom about each individual contract situation is not unusual and makes sense from a business perspective, but it has created uncertainty and concern among supporters — concern at the potential loss of up to three star players but also at the club’s failure to resolve the situation months earlier. Beyond that, it has left a vacuum that has been filled by statements from each player only adding to the sense of a club gambling with high stakes.

Van Dijk was the first to go public on his situation in August, saying there had been “no change” in the lack of a contract offer from the club. Salah then followed the Netherlands defender in September when, after scoring in a 3-0 win at Manchester United, he also revealed that Liverpool had yet to open talks over a new deal.

“Nobody at the club has spoken to me yet about a new contract, so I just play this last season and then see at the end of the season,” Salah said. “It’s not up to me, but nobody has talked to me about a contract with the club. We’ll see.”

With Van Dijk and Salah, Liverpool’s delay in negotiating new contracts is perhaps understandable. With both players in their 30s and among the club’s highest earners, a calculation must be made by the club over their value in the years ahead.

How long Van Dijk and Salah will be able to perform as world-class players — and whether the club can confidently offer a one-, two- or even three-year contract without the risk of being stuck towards the end of that deal — is the dilemma FSG face. In recent years, with star players such as Sadio Mané, Roberto Firmino and Jordan Henderson, FSG erred on the side of caution and moved each of them out before a decline set in. The records of Mané, Firmino and Henderson since leaving Liverpool have proved that the club were right in each case to offload them.

Salah and Van Dijk are at a different level to Mané, Firmino and Henderson, however, in terms of their status as club legends and in that they’re still performing at the highest level. Yet because they have allowed these players’ contracts to run into their final year, Liverpool have lost control, and the only way to regain it now is by offering contracts, in terms of length and finance, that the club would ordinarily not want to hand out.

The situation with Alexander-Arnold is different and is the one that has the greatest potential to become a problem for both player and club.

At 25 — he turns 26 on Oct. 7 — Alexander-Arnold is entering his prime years, meaning there would be no risk on Liverpool’s part in terms of sanctioning a lucrative long-term contract for a player who was developed by the club and who grew up as a Liverpool supporter. But the team are also in a catch-22 situation with Alexander-Arnold. If they do his deal first, Van Dijk and Salah would, not unreasonably, expect a similar pay deal. If the club settle Salah or Van Dijk first, it would give Alexander-Arnold’s advisers a starting point for their deal.

Yet long-standing speculation linking the England international with Real Madrid refuses to go away, and Alexander-Arnold’s reluctance to dismiss the prospect of a move is a useful negotiation tactic. However, it’s unlikely to play well with supporters who quickly lost affection for previous homegrown stars — namely Steve McManaman and Michael Owen — when it became clear both were prepared to run down contracts to move to Real.

McManaman moved to Real as a free agent in 1999, and Owen sealed an £8 million move to the Santiago Bernabéu five years later when Liverpool opted to avoid the risk of him leaving for nothing 12 months later.

Arne Slot’s comments this week about Alexander-Arnold being a “good defender” but one who needs to “do more about his concentration rate” might yet prove to be a hint that the new manager is prepared to consider a future without a player who has earned as much criticism for his defending as praise for his attacking qualities. If that is the case, Liverpool have gone past the point of no return with Alexander-Arnold in terms of securing a significant transfer fee for him.

When asked about his situation following Saturday’s 3-0 win over Bournemouth, it seemed clear that Alexander-Arnold will now either sign a new deal or leave as a free agent.

“I want to be a Liverpool player this season is what I will say,” Alexander-Arnold said when asked about his future. “I have been at the club 20 years now; I have signed four or five contract extensions; none of those have been played out in public, and this one won’t be either.

“The most important thing is always trophies, if I am honest. I want to win trophies, I am a player who is highly motivated by trophies and winning things and being elite. So that is probably the main factor [in deciding my future] of anything.”

The big problem for Liverpool with Salah, Van Dijk and Alexander-Arnold is that time is no longer on their side and they could genuinely see all three walk through the exit door as free agents next summer. The longer it drags on, the more of a distraction it will become for all involved, but the players can only win in this situation. They either get big new contracts at Liverpool or cash in on free agency status next year.

The upside of the next few months for Liverpool is much more difficult to envisage.