Predicting the WNBA semifinals: A Finals rematch and MVPs go head-to-head

Surprises in the first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs? Try sweeps. The top four seeds each advanced to what should be two blockbuster semifinal series, which tip off Sunday.

What the first round lacked in drama with four 2-0 sweeps, the semifinals could have in abundance. The No. 1 seed New York Liberty will face the No. 4 Las Vegas Aces (3 p.m. ET, ABC) in a rematch of last season’s WNBA Finals. That matchup was set on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun advanced to the WNBA semifinals for the sixth consecutive season by eliminating the Indiana Fever.

Then Napheesa Collier scored a WNBA playoff record-tying 42 points as the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx knocked out the Phoenix Mercury in what could be the last game of Mercury legend Diana Taurasi‘s career.

Both semifinal matchups are between teams that have won WNBA titles and teams that haven’t. The Aces are the two-time defending champions, while New York is 0-5 in its past attempts playing for the championship.

The Lynx have won four titles — they came during a seven-season stretch when Minnesota made the Finals six times. The Sun have played in the Finals four times, most recently in 2022, but never won.

Four of the top-five finishers in MVP voting will be competing in the semifinals: unanimous winner A’ja Wilson of Las Vegas, second-place finisher Collier, New York’s Breanna Stewart (third) and Connecticut’s Alyssa Thomas (fifth).

Let’s look at the matchups for the best-of-five semifinals.

Regular-season series: New York won 3-0

How they got here: New York swept Atlanta in the first round, getting 36 points from Sabrina Ionescu in the clinching win Tuesday. Las Vegas swept Seattle behind big performances from A’ja Wilson (24 points, 13 rebounds), Kelsey Plum (29 points) and Chelsea Gray (9 assists).

How they match up: Wilson vs. Stewart is the marquee matchup. The two superstars have dazzled in the playoffs dating to when Stewart played in Seattle, and they have five MVP awards between them. Wilson has been otherworldly all season, averaging a career-high and WNBA-record 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game during the regular season. Stewart averaged 20.4 PPG and 8.5 RPG. Not every superstar matchup yields opportunities for the team’s top players to guard each other, but Wilson and Stewart will, even if it’s not on every possession.

Outside of Stewart and Wilson, there are intriguing matchups all over the floor. New York went with a bigger lineup against Atlanta, starting rookie Leonie Fiebich in place of veteran Courtney Vandersloot. The lineup gave the Liberty additional size and length on the perimeter. At 6-foot-4, Fiebich is quick enough to stick with Jackie Young or Gray, and her length can disrupt perimeter passing lanes.

The big question for Vegas is who will guard Jonquel Jones and Stewart? Wilson can guard one of them, but she can’t guard both. Aces coach Becky Hammon has said that the fifth spot in the Aces lineup depends on the matchup. Kiah Stokes started both games against Seattle and has the most familiarity with the current Aces lineup, brings enough size to hang with Jones, but is a liability offensively. Other options on the Vegas bench, however, do not exactly solve this issue. Las Vegas definitely has a disadvantage in the frontcourt — outside of Wilson, of course — but can the Aces absorb that disparity and make up for it in the backcourt? The answer to that question might determine the outcome of the series.

The New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces will meet again in the WNBA playoffs 👀 @Andraya_Carter gives her 4 KEYS to victory in the 2023 WNBA Finals rematch 🔑 pic.twitter.com/LwQgrxVelM

— espnW (@espnW) September 25, 2024

What will most impact the series? Jones averaged 19.7 points and 11 rebounds in the Liberty’s three games against the Aces this season, five points and two rebounds above her regular-season totals. In the first regular-season meeting, Jones had 34 points. In the second, she had 17 rebounds. In the third — the one when Wilson didn’t play — Jones had 15 points and 8 boards. If she can string together a few explosive games, it could be the difference. Jones is an MVP too. If she plays like that version of herself, Las Vegas could be in trouble.

New York will advance if: Fiebich and Jones win their respective matchups. New York’s lineup presents unique challenges for Las Vegas. Young, who is an elite defender, cannot guard Ionescu and Fiebich. Plum gives up size to every guard. Gray isn’t 6-foot-4. But someone has to guard Fiebich. In the frontcourt, someone must guard Jones. If the Liberty can execute and leverage those mismatches, New York will be returning to the Finals for another shot at the franchise’s first title.

Las Vegas will advance if: Its backcourt plays at the level it’s capable of on both ends of the floor. Wilson has proved all season that she will show up at an elite level, but the Aces haven’t had consistent guard play. Hammon has referred to Plum, Gray and Young as the Aces’ “separation factors.” When that trio hits shots and successfully pressures on the perimeter, Las Vegas is very difficult to beat. — Katie Barnes

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Aces in 5
Katie Barnes: Aces in 5
Charlie Creme: Liberty in 4
Sean Hurd: Aces in 5
Myron Medcalf: Aces in 5
Neil Paine: Liberty in 5
Kevin Pelton: Liberty in 5
Alexa Philippou: Liberty in 5
Michael Voepel: Aces in 5

Regular-season series: Connecticut won 2-1

How they got here: The Sun swept No. 6 seed Indiana 2-0 in the first round, led by veterans Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. Thomas, who had a triple-double in the first game, finished the series with a combined 31 points, 26 assists and 15 rebounds. Bonner had a combined 37 points and 14 rebounds. And Marina Mabrey, obtained via trade in July, had a combined 44 points and 9 assists. The Lynx got No. 7 seed Phoenix’s best effort, but Minnesota — Collier especially — was just too good. She had 38 points in the opener, and light-heartedly chastised herself for missing two free throws in Wednesday’s 101-88 victory.

Admittedly, one more free throw and she would have had the playoff scoring record with 43 points. But she was 14 of 20 from the field and 12 of 14 from the line. “I was just taking what the defense gave me, what my teammates were giving me,” Collier said in a master class of understatement.

How they match up: These were the best two teams in the league in defensive rating during the regular season: the Sun at 94.1 and the Lynx at 94.8. They were also the best at defending the 3-point line: Minnesota held its opponents to 30.1% shooting and Connecticut limited theirs to 31.3%.

All three of the regular-season games were close. Connecticut won the first in overtime 83-82 on May 23. The Sun also won the second 78-73 on July 4. Minnesota got its 78-76 victory on Sept. 17.

Both teams have experienced coaches, too: Cheryl Reeve guided the Lynx to all four of their titles and the Sun’s Stephanie White was an assistant when Indiana won its title in 2012 and head coach when the Fever were last in the WNBA Finals in 2015. Indiana lost to Reeve and the Lynx that year in five games. White left the WNBA after 2016 to coach collegiately at Vanderbilt, but returned last year with the Sun.

What will most impact the series? It might sound simplistic, but which defense will be the best? When both are so good, that is strength vs. strength.

The teams’ offensive rating is also nearly identical: The Lynx were fourth at 102.8 and the Sun fifth at 102.3.

In the first round, Collier proved unguardable, so what plan will the Sun have for her? Collier had 31 points in the first matchup this season with the Sun and 25 in the third. In the second game she was held to 9.

Thomas, 32, and Bonner, 37, are two of the most experienced players in the league when it comes to the playoffs, and they seem to be once again rising to the occasion at the biggest times.

If all three of those players are performing well, who else will step up? Mabrey was terrific in the first-round series for the Sun. Another Notre Dame grad, Kayla McBride, was a strong performer for Minnesota.

Minnesota will advance if: The Lynx are able to move the ball anywhere near as well against Connecticut as they did against Phoenix. Obviously, the Mercury are not as good as the Sun defensively. But it was still impressive how well the Lynx shared the ball in that series: They had 30 assists and 10 turnovers in Game 1 and 28 and 7 in Game 2.

We know both these teams are solid defensively. But Minnesota also led the WNBA in assists during the regular season at 23.0 per game. If the Lynx can attack the Sun with that kind of precision, they will win the series.

Connecticut will advance if: The Sun are able to slow down Collier — we won’t say stop, because that’s not going to happen — and if they beat the Lynx at their own game by limiting them from the 3-point line. The Fever shot 26.7% from 3-point range in Wednesday’s loss to the Sun and 21.4% in Sunday’s loss. That was a big part of why the Fever couldn’t get their offense going as well as they had through the end of the regular season. The Sun defensively make everything hard, and they are as physical as any team in the league.

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Sun in 5
Katie Barnes: Lynx in 4
Charlie Creme: Lynx in 4
Sean Hurd: Lynx in 5
Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 5
Neil Paine: Lynx in 5
Kevin Pelton: Lynx in 5
Alexa Philippou: Lynx in 5
Michael Voepel: Lynx in 5