Betting buzz: Kentucky shocks Ole Miss, BYU clinches win total over

Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans with a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Mahomes favored in record 91 of first 100 starts

David Purdum: No quarterback has earned more respect from the betting market to start their career than Patrick Mahomes.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been betting favorites in 91 of Mahomes’ 100 career starts, including Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites over the host Chargers. The 91 games as the favorite are the most by a quarterback in their first 100 starts in the Super Bowl era, surpassing Dallas Cowboys Hall of Fame quarterback Rogers Staubach (90).

Mahomes and the Chiefs have been favored the most but haven’t been exceptional at covering the spread. The Chiefs are 52-46-1 against the spread in Mahomes’ starts, which ranks 36th among Super Bowl-era quarterbacks in their first 100 starts, according to ESPN Research.

QBs with best cover percentage
in first 100 starts; via ESPN Research

Tom Brady: 64-33-3
Joe Montana: 62-38-0
Alex Smith: 58-40-2
Joe Theismann: 58-40-2
Dak Prescott: 56-41-3

Sept. 28: Betting notes, trends on Kentucky’s upset and more

The Kentucky Wildcats pulled off a shocking upset of No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday as 15.5-point underdogs. In addition to earning its first win in Oxford since 1978, Kentucky’s victory was the fourth-largest upset this season, behind Northern Illinois (+28.5) over No. 5 Notre Dame, St. Francis (+17.5) over Kent State, and Boston College (+16.5) over No. 10 Florida State. On the other side, Ole Miss dropped from 13-1 to 18-1 to win the national championship at ESPN BET.

Other results:

• No. 22 BYU clinched the over on its win total (4.5), improving to 5-0 outright and ATS this season after its win over Baylor. The Cougars have covered each game by at least 9.5 points and improve to 3-0 outright as underdogs this season.

• Duke comes back from 20-0 down in the second half to beat rival North Carolina. Running back Star Thomas racked up 166 yards on the ground while Peyton Jones delivered the go-ahead score. Duke was as long as a 15-1 underdog on the live money line at ESPN BET.

• Colorado now has two wins as a double-digit underdog under Deion Sanders — the Buffaloes beat TCU as 17-point underdog last season — and are one of five programs with multiple wins as double-digit underdogs since Sanders took over prior to the 2023 season. Georgia Tech, Stanford, Boston College and Northwestern are the other four. The Buffaloes closed as 12.5-point underdogs to UCF before their convincing 48-21 win in Orlando.

Courtesy of ESPN Research. Mackenzie Kramer contributed to this report.

Sept 28: Knicks, Timberwolves see odds movement after reported trade

David Purdum: Sportsbooks upgraded the New York Knicks after Friday’s reported blockbuster trade with the Minnesota Timberwolves. The reported trade will see the Knicks acquire Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.

The Knicks moved from +800 to +700 to win the NBA title at ESPN BET and other sportsbooks, slightly narrowing the gap with the Boston Celtics, who remain the favorites in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are +150 to win the Eastern Conference, with Knicks next at +295.

The Timberwolves’ odds to win the Western Conference lengthened from +400 to +500, fourth best in the conference. Minnesota is 10-1 to win the NBA title.

Jeff Sherman, veteran NBA oddsmakers for the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN he thought the trade would have a “marginal” impact on each team. Sherman bumped up the Knicks’ season-win total from 53.5 to 54.5, and trimmed the Wolves’ win total down 52.5 to 51.5.