Four draft trends you need to know about this season
I’ve been doing a lot of mock drafts in preparation for the upcoming fantasy basketball season and have seen some trends that might help you when preparing for your big fantasy hoops draft day.
Here are four that stand out.
Get a top-four pick or go last
I absolutely love the top four picks in drafts this year. No matter what order you put them in, it looks good; Victor Wembanyama, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I love getting a top-four pick and then backing up one of those fantasy superstars with another quality star at the end of Round 2.
In the latest ESPN mock draft (eight teams, points, head-to-head) I was lucky enough to get the No. 1 pick and got my man Wemby. And because there were only eight of us, I turned around and got Scottie Barnes at the end of Round 2, which I am thrilled about. Then I scooped up Kevin Durant with the first pick of Round 3.
But I honestly think I could have taken Jokic, SGA or Luka first overall and would still have a real chance at winning the league. But the drop-off after the fourth pick is immense. I love Tyrese Haliburton as much as the next guy, but I’ve got some trust issues with him after his weird second half last season. I don’t like Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s knee; Domantas Sabonis doesn’t do enough blocking and stealing for a big man; I don’t trust Joel Embiid farther than I can throw him; Anthony Davis playing 76 games last season feels fluky; and I don’t know that Jayson Tatum does enough to win you a league. So my strategy has been to hope for a top-four pick or settle for the last pick. I just grab Anthony Edwards or Trae Young at the end of Round 1 if I’m not among the first four picks.
Point guards are available late
A lot of experts will tell you that assists are hard to come by and that you have to get good point guards early, but I see things a little differently. Terry Rozier, Scoot Henderson, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Mike Conley, Alex Caruso and Keyonte George are all available late in drafts and all should rack up solid numbers.
I think Scoot could be heading for a breakout season after averaging 19.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.9 triples in his seven April games, and he played much better over the second half of his rookie season. George is a “swing for the fences” type of talent that could be boom or bust, but I’m very comfortable using any of these guys as a starting point guard for my fantasy teams. I often dream about watching CP3 throwing lobs to Wemby.
Centers are available late, too
In addition to point guards, there are very serviceable centers with upside available late, as well. Daniel Gafford, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Hartenstein, Brook Lopez, Deandre Ayton, Naz Reid and Dereck Lively II have all been sitting there in the later rounds, and all of them are productive and valuable in fantasy leagues. I am very intrigued by Hartenstein in Oklahoma City. And while we have yet to see how he’ll mesh with Chet Holmgren, the Thunder didn’t sign Hartenstein to sit on the bench. Hartenstein averaged eight points, eight boards, a steal and a block last season and those numbers can only go up in OKC.
Also, Reid gets a big boost with Karl-Anthony Towns now wearing a Knicks jersey. I love the idea of grabbing Reid late in drafts, and while no one on the above list will instill fear in your opponent, they’re all solid fantasy centers.
High-scoring small forwards go quickly
It can be tricky finding a great small forward after the first few rounds of your draft. Jalen Williams, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Jalen Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Kyle Kuzma and Franz Wagner are the bigger names that tend to be available in the middle rounds. I’m not touching Leonard this season, but I am excited to see what George will do in Philly.
The guys I will target here are “the Jalens,” as in Williams and Johnson. If you get a high pick and start things off with a top-four player, back it up with solid second-, third- and fourth-round picks, and then if you can get your hands on ‘the Jalens’ in Rounds 5 and 6, you should be all set to roll your league.
It’s almost draft time, as the season starts on Oct. 22! I hope to see you in the draft room!
