Predicting the WNBA Finals: How Liberty, Lynx match up — and why our experts are split

And then there were two.

The No. 1 seed New York Liberty and No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx will vie for the 2024 championship in a best-of-five WNBA Finals beginning Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) with Game 1 in Brooklyn.

Both teams enter the Finals with contrasting histories. The Liberty, one of the league’s original franchises, are still searching for their first title, with last year’s Finals defeat still fresh in their minds.

The Lynx were one of the most storied dynasties in the sport after winning four championships between 2011 and 2017 — the latter also marking the last time they appeared in a Finals series, until this season.

With Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu leading the way, New York was widely expected to be back here heading into Year Two of its superteam formation. Minnesota? Not exactly. The Lynx were 19-21 in 2023 and weren’t picked as a contender ahead of this season. But behind a career year from MVP runner-up Napheesa Collier, Minnesota has proved it belongs on the WNBA’s biggest stage.

Minnesota needed a Game 5 to put away the Connecticut Sun in the semifinals, but it’s fitting the Lynx and Liberty will face off in the Finals. They were the top two teams in the standings, and met in the 2024 Commissioner’s Cup championship game in late June.

ESPN breaks down what to know about each team and what to expect from the championship series.

(1) New York Liberty vs. (2) Minnesota Lynx

Regular season series: Minnesota won 3-1, including the Commissioner’s Cup championship game

New York in the playoffs: Swept Atlanta Dream 2-0 in the first round; beat two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces 3-1 in the semifinals

Minnesota in the playoffs: Swept Phoenix Mercury 2-0 in the first round; beat Connecticut Sun 3-2 in the semifinals

How New York got here: After a standout 2023, the team’s first season after acquiring Stewart, Jonquel Jones and Courtney Vandersloot in free agency, New York retooled its bench to bring in more defense and length, most significantly signing 24-year-old rookie Leonie Fiebich from Germany (who now starts in place of Vandersloot). With enhanced chemistry among their returners, the Liberty finished with a league best 32-8 record, not losing consecutive games at any point this year. — Philippou

How Minnesota got here: The Lynx made key changes in the offseason, bringing in Courtney Williams and Alanna Smith in free agency and trading for Natisha Hiedeman. Kayla McBride and Bridget Carleton have had strong seasons, too. Collier was Defensive Player of the Year along with a second-place MVP finish. Minnesota’s only rough stretch was before the Olympic break, when Collier was dealing with plantar fasciitis. — Voepel

How they match up: There’s a reason these teams occupied the top two spots of the standings: They were the only teams to finish in top-four in both offensive and defensive rating this season, with the Lynx slightly edging the Liberty defensively but New York having the better numbers offensively. Both squads lean on sharing the ball and 3-point shooting, but the Liberty also have the tandem of 6-foot-4 Stewart and 6-6 Jones that can get it done inside.

There’s plenty of star power: Stewart and Jones are former MVPs, Collier the 2024 runner-up. Ionescu, McBride and Williams are playing like three of the best guards in the league. Rotations tend to get shorter in the postseason, but Liberty coach Sandy Brondello and Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve have depth at their disposal, with nine players on each team averaging at least 12 minutes per game on the season. — Philippou

What will most impact the series: How much the Liberty are able to win the paint with Stewart and Jones might be the key to the series. It won’t be easy; Minnesota got even stronger inside with the addition of forward Myisha Hines-Allen on Aug. 20. Stewart is coming off perhaps her best game of the playoffs, with 19 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 blocks as New York eliminated Las Vegas on Sunday. But her fellow UConn grad Collier — they played together for the Huskies in the 2015-16 championship season — has been the playoffs’ most impressive player. Tuesday was Collier’s 16th career WNBA postseason game, and her third with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds. — Voepel

New York will win it all if … Ionescu continues to play like the best guard in the league. The former Oregon Ducks star is hungry to win her first championship after not getting a chance to compete for the NCAA title her senior year of college due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After a slump when play resumed following the Olympics, she has been the Liberty’s top scorer in the postseason, averaging 20.7 PPG on 48.9% shooting (46.5% on 3-pointers) plus 5.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. — Philippou

Minnesota will win it all if … Collier asserts herself as much as she has so far in the postseason, and if Minnesota’s 3-point shooting is on point. The Lynx led the WNBA in assists during the regular season; they move the ball incredibly well and spread out even the best defenses. They shot a league-best 38% from behind the arc in the regular season and don’t lack any confidence facing the Liberty. Nor should they, considering their success against New York this season. — Voepel

Which team will win the title, and why:

Philippou: Liberty in 5. New York will win because it has the hunger, focus and experience from last year’s Finals defeat — plus home court advantage — to finally get the job done.

Voepel: Lynx in 5. Minnesota is the No. 2 seed, but was the better team head-to-head in its previous matchups with New York. The Lynx have played very consistently and cohesively all season, and they can add the league title to their Commissioner’s Cup championship from June.