Rookie QB Drake Maye to start: Will he help the struggling Patriots offense?

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — In the perfect New England Patriots world, the decision to turn to rookie quarterback Drake Maye would have waited a bit longer.

But the offense, led by veteran Jacoby Brissett, has been heading in the wrong direction after playing competitively the first two games of the season — a 16-10 win over the Cincinnati Bengals and 23-20 overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks. From Weeks 3 to 5, the Patriots averaged 8.7 offensive points per game — the lowest in the NFL.

So the time for the No. 3 overall draft pick is now, a source told ESPN’s Adam Schefter. First-year head coach Jerod Mayo has seemingly made the calculation that the Patriots (1-4) have the infrastructure in place to support Maye — who was always going to play at some point this season, per team sources — despite deficiencies along the offensive line and wide receiver.

There is risk in that calculation.

Part of the reason the Patriots didn’t start Maye immediately, despite Mayo’s view that the rookie had closed the gap on Brissett by the end of training camp, is the combination of his age and college experience, according to team sources. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt said before the season that Maye was better off sitting for a while. The OC reiterated that view during the start of the season.

Maye was the youngest and least experienced of the NFL’s six first-round quarterbacks. He turned 22 on Aug. 30 and started 26 games at the University of North Carolina.

No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, who turns 23 in November, started 33 games in college. No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels, who turns 24 in December, had 55 collegiate starts.

Part of the Patriots’ developmental plan for Maye was to have him learn behind Brissett — the nine-year veteran who coaches and teammates have referred to as a consummate professional — while also preparing the rookie to eventually be the No. 1 by giving him about 30% of the first-team repetitions in practice. Mayo had acknowledged it was a unique arrangement because starters usually receive about 95% of the repetitions.

Maye made his NFL debut on the final drive of a Week 3 blowout loss to the Jets. He went 4-of-8 for 22 yards with two rushes for 12 yards and was sacked twice.

Van Pelt viewed Maye’s drive as a building block.

“It was a great experience for him to get in, especially a night game in New York,” Van Pelt said after the game. “I thought it was a great start for him. Definitely some things to clean up in his game, but made some throws, made some plays with his legs. I’m encouraged with his future.”

Of Maye’s footwork under pressure, Van Pelt referred to it as “up and down.”

“There were some things there to correct, and that’s usually the case the first time you’re out for a live [game] — it can change your feet and you revert back,” he said. “Still a work in progress there; he’ll be able to take it to the next level.”

How might things look different with Maye starting going forward?

In college, Maye was 618-of-952 (64.9%) for 8,018 yards, with 63 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 26 games.

Veteran Patriots linebacker Raekwon McMillan referred to Maye as a “mixture of the modern-day quarterback” because of his ability to move around the pocket and throw off different platforms. McMillan called the 6-foot-4, 225-pound quarterback an “incredible athlete.” Brissett, alternatively, is more of a traditional pocket passer.

Maye’s mobility could be key. From 2022 to 2023, he had 953 rushing yards on scrambles, which was the second most in the FBS, trailing only Daniels. Over that same span, he helped produce 23 touchdowns under pressure, second most in the FBS behind Williams (25).

Maye might be forced to scramble often. In their 1-4 start, the Patriots’ offensive line has produced a pass block win rate of 41.6%, which ranks last in the NFL. In-game statisticians recorded 49 hits against Brissett, although some of those came with Brissett holding onto the football too long or receivers struggling to get open.

Since ESPN began tracking QB pressures in 2009, only the 2022 Bears (47.3%) have allowed a higher pressure rate through five games of a season than this year’s Patriots (46.8%).

Facing pressure is something Maye was familiar with in two seasons at North Carolina. UNC allowed 409 pressures from 2022-23, the most of any FBS school, according to ESPN Research.

Maye will be tested early as the first defense he faces, the Houston Texans, is tied for fourth best in the NFL in pass rush win rate at 50%. The Jaguars (in London), Jets, Titans and Bears are next on the schedule.

Mayo hinted at the change Monday by saying he believed the Patriots had solidified their offensive line, after four weeks of mixing and matching, and also added a key receiver with the return of Kendrick Bourne. The Patriots had started a different offensive line in each of the first five games but appear primed to bring back the same version for the second week in a row, with arguably their best blocker, Mike Onwenu, moved from right tackle to right guard.

Mayo acknowledged Monday it is likely to be “a little bumpy” for any rookie quarterback, including Maye.

“Our mentality is how do we develop him and get guys around him to develop, and move forward from there,” he said.