Trump Media stock soars after sudden reversal in election odds
Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, have jumped over the past week as betting markets started tilting toward former President Donald Trump.
On Friday, the stock surged 4.8% to close at $25.28, up 53% from last Friday’s closing price.
That coincided with a broad improvement in Trump’s odds of victory on top betting sites. For example, Vice President Kamala Harris was in the lead last weekend on PredictIt, then was tied by Wednesday, and was overtaken by Trump the following day.
Similarly, Harris had a slight edge on Oct. 4 on Polymarket, but lost it over the weekend, with Trump widening his lead throughout the following week. As of now, it shows 55% for Trump and 44.7% for Harris.
And on Kalshi, Harris and Trump were largely neck and neck, but Trump began pulling ahead by mid-week and now leads 53% versus 47%.
Meanwhile, renowned data scientist Thomas Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, also told Fortune’s Shawn Tully on Thursday that Trump’s odds surged over the past week, giving him a two-vote electoral college lead.
He maintains that his model, which is guided by political betting data, is a much better forecaster than following the individual polls.
While nationwide opinion polls haven’t seen a dramatic reversal, with Harris clinging to a narrow lead, polls in the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show her advantage shrinking while Trump has held onto leads in other battlegrounds like Georgia and North Carolina.
Trump Media shares have already been on a wild ride this year, acting like a barometer of Trump’s election prospects. The stock skyrocketed following Trump’s first debate with President Joe Biden in June and again after Trump survived an assassination attempt in July.
But after Biden stepped aside and Harris took his place in the presidential race, Trump Media stock tumbled. Shares sold off further last month as the end of the lockup period approached, allowing company insiders to sell their shares.
Then last month, Trump said he would not sell his stock, dampening speculation that he would cash them out to cover legal or campaign expenses. Since hitting a low on Sept. 23, Trump Media stock has leapt 115%.
Trump owns about 59% of the outstanding shares, meaning his stake is now worth nearly $3 billion.
