Heisman and CFP odds watch: Oregon, Dillon Gabriel enter conversation

As the 2024 college football season reaches its midpoint, the Heisman Trophy race and national championship landscape have been dramatically reshaped by Week 7’s thrilling matchups and unexpected outcomes. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty remains at the forefront of the Heisman conversation with his record-breaking rushing performances. Meanwhile, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel has thrust himself into the spotlight with a clutch performance in the Ducks’ upset win over Ohio State.

On the national championship front, the Texas Longhorns emerged as the new betting favorite after a dominant showing in the Red River Rivalry, while traditional powerhouses like the Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs are regrouping after setbacks.

As we examine the latest odds, it’s clear that the expanded 12-team playoff format has injected even more excitement and unpredictability into both the Heisman race and the chase for the national title.

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

---

Heisman race: Breaking down the top contenders and current favorites

Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State Broncos, +175

Last week: +225

Jeanty’s statistical output has been nothing short of extraordinary this season and he remains the Heisman Trophy favorite after Week 7. Through six games, he has 1,248 rushing yards, 18 total touchdowns and averages an astounding 9.9 yards per carry, which, if maintained, would shatter the single-season record for a running back with at least 200 carries.

Jeanty has shown consistency and big-play ability, eclipsing 200 all-purpose yards in four games with seven touchdown runs of at least 50 yards this year. This combination of steady production and explosive plays has kept him at the forefront of the Heisman conversation.

If Jeanty maintains his current pace, he could potentially challenge Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards set in 1988. Approaching or breaking such a longstanding record would significantly boost his Heisman candidacy. Plus, Boise State’s success as a team, currently ranked No. 15 with a 5-1 record, adds to Jeanty’s Heisman case. The Broncos’ prominence in the Mountain West Conference and ability to potentially secure a playoff spot, would provide a strong platform for Jeanty’s resume.

While the video game stats are hard to ignore, Jeanty’s exceptional performances and the field’s lack of a clear-cut favorite among signal-callers, gives him a legitimate shot at winning college football’s most prestigious individual award.

Dillon Gabriel, QB Oregon Ducks, +375

Last week: +1600

Gabriel has surged to become the second favorite in the Heisman race after a standout performance in Oregon’s thrilling 32-31 victory over Ohio State. He completed 23-of-34 passes for 341 yards, two touchdown passes, and rushed for 32 yards.

Gabriel demonstrated exceptional poise and leadership by orchestrating a game-winning drive in the final minutes against Ohio State. His ability to perform under pressure on a national stage against a top-ranked opponent is the kind of narrative Heisman voters look for in a candidate.

While his overall season statistics may not be as eye-popping as some other candidates, Gabriel has been consistently effective, with an impressive 76% completion percentage, which leads among qualifying quarterbacks. He’s not just an effective pocket passer, but also has the ability to make plays with his legs, as evidenced by his 27-yard touchdown run against Ohio State, which adds another dimension to his game that voters appreciate.

While there’s still a significant portion of the season left to play, Gabriel’s dramatic rise in the Heisman odds is justified by his recent high-profile performance, consistent play throughout the season, and Oregon’s success. His ability to maintain this momentum in upcoming games will be crucial for his Heisman aspirations.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB Colorado Buffaloes, +1100

Last week: +325

Travis Hunter’s drop from the second favorite to +1100 is significant. He left the game against Kansas State late in the second quarter after he suffered a shoulder injury. The injury occurred on a 14-yard reception when Hunter collided at full speed with Kansas State safety Daniel Cobbs.

If Hunter returns to full health, he’ll need to focus on some key areas to remain in the Heisman conversation. He must continue to excel on both offense and defense. His current stats are impressive (49 catches, 587 receiving yards, six touchdowns on offense; 16 tackles, two interceptions, one forced fumble on defense), but to be a true contender, he needs to maintain — or even improve on — those numbers and demonstrate his unique value as a two-way player.

More importantly, Colorado’s overall performance could perhaps hold the most weight. If the Buffaloes can secure some upset victories and compete for the Big 12 title, it would greatly enhance Hunter’s Heisman narrative. ESPN’s FPI gives Colorado the fifth-highest chance to win the Big 12, along with a 93 percent shot at a winning season. If Hunter can have exceptional performances in Colorado’s remaining matchups, make some memorable plays and game-changing contributions in these contests, then that could significantly boost his Heisman stock. However, he’ll need to overcome the strong performances of other candidates to have a real shot at winning the trophy.

---

Road to the title: Analyzing the National Championship favorites

Texas is now both No. 1 in the rankings and the betting favorite (+360 from +425) to win the national championship after a dominant 34-3 victory in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma. After a huge upset win over Ohio State, Oregon moved to No. 2 in the rankings and sits as the fourth favorite (+550 from +1000) to win the title. Despite its first loss of the season, Ohio State (+425 from +300) remains in the top three as the second favorite, with Georgia (+475 from +450) remaining in contention despite season struggles since its opening smash over Clemson. Alabama has fallen in the odds (+850 from +650), but remains a top contender despite some inconsistent performances.

Penn State (+1300) has shown potential but still faces questions about their offense against top competition. Tennessee’s odds (+2500) have lengthened significantly after recent struggles, but they remain in the conversation. Miami (+2000) is undefeated but has had some close calls, making them an intriguing long shot to some. After a loss to LSU, Ole Miss is now considered a fringe playoff team but still has an outside shot.

Bet to consider: Texas A&M Aggies (+120) to make the playoff

The Aggies have a strong start 5-1 overall and 3-0 in SEC play, leading the conference after six weeks. They’ve won five games in a row, including a dominant 41-10 victory over then-No. 9 Missouri, which was their largest-ever win against a top-10 ranked team. Talk about a favorable schedule. The Aggies miss playing Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Tennessee this season, projected to be favored in every remaining game except against Texas. If they perform one game better than expected, they could finish 10-2, which should be enough for a playoff bid in the new 12-team format without needing to win the SEC.

Despite some early quarterback injuries, Texas A&M ranks 35th in net expected points added (EPA) per play against FBS opponents with a defense that has been solid, contributing to their overall success. While these factors make +120 an attractive bet, there are still challenges ahead, including potential tough games against LSU and Texas. The bet carries risk, but the odds offer good value given Texas A&M’s current position and trajectory.