Takeaways: Wide-open CFP, Dillon Gabriel's Heisman case, Lincoln Riley's struggles, more
With the midseason point approaching, College Football Playoff conversations continue to brew, as there is yet to be a team that shows enough consistency to win four straight playoff games and take the national title. Could it be Oregon? Texas?
At 3-3 so far, questions surround Lincoln Riley and the Trojans’ season ahead as they continue conference play. USC has already lost more conference games through seven weeks than Riley did in any of his five seasons at Oklahoma. What can the Trojans do to turn their season around?
Arizona State (5-1) played like a CFP contender in its big upset of No. 16 Utah, and second-year coach Kenny Dillingham has the program on the right path to success.
Our college football experts break down key takeaways from Week 7.
There is no clear-cut CFP favorite
There are a lot of good teams this fall, but it’s hard to make a case for a truly great one. Think 2019 LSU, 2020 Alabama, 2022 Georgia. Yes, Texas and Oregon can both make a case this week for the No. 1 team in the country — and Texas certainly looks like a national title contender — but who do you trust this year to win consistently? Who looks like they can roll through four straight playoff games to win the national title? It’s hard to find one that will roll through October.
Maybe Texas will assert itself as that team in November. Maybe Georgia will have something to say about that Saturday. But in a season that has put parity on full display each week, the 12-team CFP might actually open the door for the upsets to continue — a fitting end to this already unpredictable season. — Heather Dinich
The gulf between Sarkisian and Kiffin continues to widen
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian and Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin always will be linked through their time together under Pete Carroll at USC. They were playcalling prodigies, young guns destined for big things in coaching. Both would lead USC and fail. Both then would revive their careers under Nick Saban at Alabama before landing head-coaching jobs again.
Although Sarkisian and Kiffin are both succeeding in their new roles, the gap between their trajectories is clear, and it widened in Week 7. Sarkisian’s Texas team looks every bit a national championship contender, and it easily overwhelmed rival Oklahoma in a businesslike win at the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns are deep and talented, undeterred by NFL departures or injuries.
Kiffin’s Ole Miss team, meanwhile, lost to a less-talented opponent for the second time in three weeks, falling 29-26 to LSU. His decorated offense scored only four total touchdowns against Kentucky and LSU, and none in the fourth quarter of either game. Ole Miss drew 12 penalties against LSU (the second most under Kiffin) and allowed six sacks (while recording none), and quarterback Jaxson Dart was intercepted twice.
To be clear, Sarkisian has a far better job. Few programs can come close to matching Texas for resources. But Ole Miss stepped up big for Kiffin, helping him build a generational team. And it still doesn’t appear to be enough for the CFP, where Sarkisian’s team likely will be. — Adam Rittenberg
Let’s hear it for Bryant Vincent and the Warhawks
Everything in college football is geared toward the playoff. We all knew that would happen when the sport went down that road in 2014, and it’s even more apparent now in the first season of the 12-team format.
But there’s still a place for the “little guy” in college football, and no team has exemplified that any better midway through this season than UL Monroe and first-year coach Bryant Vincent. The Warhawks (5-1, 3-0 in the Sun Belt) are off to their best start since 1987. A crowd of 22,645 fans showed up for ULM’s 38-21 win over Southern Miss on Saturday, the most-attended ULM home game in five seasons.
To truly appreciate the Warhawks’ march to this point, consider a few things:
• They’ve managed just one winning season in the past 30 years and were picked to finish last in the Sun Belt’s West Division in the preseason coaches’ poll.
• They have the smallest athletic department budget of a non-military school in the FBS (a little more than $20 million). That might get you two years worth of a starting offense in today’s world of the transfer portal and pricey NIL payouts.
• Vincent guided UAB to a 7-6 record as interim coach in 2022 after Bill Clark retired because of debilitating back problems. As offensive coordinator, Vincent had been an integral part of UAB’s rise to relevance after the program’s reinstatement in 2017, but he was passed over for the permanent head-coaching job when UAB hired Trent Dilfer prior to the 2023 season. ULM beat UAB 32-6 in Week 2, and the Blazers are just 5-13 since the start of the 2023 season.
It’s a given that larger schools might come in during the offseason and try to poach some of ULM’s key performers (I’m sure it’s hard for people to believe that really happens), but this is a ride ULM’s community, fans and players and Vincent deserve.
The playoff and all the money it generates undoubtedly steal the spotlight in college football, but the soul of the sport runs much deeper. — Chris Low
The honeymoon is over at USC for Lincoln Riley
When Lincoln Riley ditched Oklahoma for Hollywood’s bright lights and USC, it was viewed as a major coup for the Trojans. Riley had gone 55-10 over the past five seasons at Oklahoma, never finishing outside the AP top 10, and had a reputation for being one of the best offensive minds in football. With an apathetic fan base coming off the Clay Helton era, Riley’s arrival injected a much-needed dose of enthusiasm.
But now, halfway into Year 3 under Riley, the Trojans still look like just another team. Any additional goodwill Riley earned by helping Caleb Williams win the Heisman Trophy in Year 1 faded as the Trojans lost five of six to end the regular season last year. With a 1-3 record in the Big Ten to start this season, the Trojans look no closer to being nationally relevant than they were under Helton.
In fact, Helton was more successful than Riley at the same point. Through 33 games in Year 3, Helton was 25-8 with a Rose Bowl win and a Cotton Bowl loss. Riley is 22-11 with a Cotton Bowl loss and a Holiday Bowl win. In four Big Ten games, Riley has already lost more conference games (three) than he did in any of his five seasons in the Big 12. Using the final AP rankings as a barometer of success, Riley’s teams have regressed nearly every single season since he became Oklahoma’s head coach in 2017. In order: 3, 4, 7, 6, 10, 12, unranked. And now he’s on pace for another unranked season.
The Trojans played a good first half against Penn State on Saturday, but USC is not a place for moral victories, especially when the school committed more than $100 million to Riley for him to win at the highest level.
Instead, Riley offered up this assessment of where USC is after collapsing against Penn State: “The reality of it is we’ve played the toughest schedule in the country the first six games, we’ve had a chance to win all six games. And that’s hard to do. Like, to put yourself in position to win these games is friggin’ hard to do to begin with.”
He’s right. It’s hard. But there’s no sympathy to be given. He’s paid to win, not almost win. — Kyle Bonagura
Gabriel makes Heisman case
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel opened the year as the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. But as the Ducks scuffled offensively to open the season, Gabriel receded from that conversation.
Saturday night, in a thrilling 32-31 victory over second-ranked Ohio State, Gabriel delivered an emphatic Heisman statement in his 55th career start.
Against the Buckeyes’ vaunted defense, Gabriel completed 23 of 34 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns without committing a turnover or taking a sack. He also scored the game’s final touchdown, pulling the ball to fool the Ohio State defenders while rushing in a 27-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Gabriel then led Oregon down the field for what proved to be the winning field goal drive.
Gabriel finished with a scintillating 95.9 QBR on the night — and showed why he’s one of the top players in college football. — Jake Trotter
Keep an eye on Clemson
What if we told you that after Clemson scored three points in a season-opening loss to Georgia, that the Tigers would end up scoring 40 or more points in four of their next five games and be firmly in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot?
While we cannot confirm whether coach Dabo Swinney kept the receipts after his program was roundly dismissed following that game, what has happened over the next six weeks speaks more to what has become a Swinney mantra that also has been criticized: having patience with the players he has recruited.
Swinney maintained, over an entire offseason, that this team — and quarterback Cade Klubnik — would be better with another year in the offensive system. That freshmen receivers Bryant Wesco and T.J. Moore would be game changers. That the defense would rebound behind veterans coming back.
While the 34-3 setback against Georgia might have indicated Swinney was papering over personnel issues, he saw something there to build on. His optimism for the way the rest of the season would unfold never wavered. Klubnik is having a career year, ranked No. 5 in the nation in Total QBR. His completion percentage is up; his interceptions are way down. Wesco and Moore have brought desperately needed big plays to the passing game, and the offensive line has vastly improved, allowing only six sacks and helping running back Phil Mafah have a big year. Defensively, Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz are playing as expected. But there also has been the emergence of Jahiem Lawson, Tre Williams and Payton Page. As Swinney said after it Clemson’s 49-14 win over Wake Forest, the Tigers are simply playing good complementary football right now.
There will be tests ahead for sure. To be clear, Clemson has not beaten a team with a winning record since losing to Georgia. Tougher opponents, such as Louisville, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech, remain on the ACC schedule, not to mention the closer against South Carolina. But Clemson will be favored in all those games. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 33.9% chance to win the ACC, just behind Miami at 34.9%. Its playoff odds? Those are 44.6%. — Andrea Adelson
Kenny Dillingham is right where he’s supposed to be
There’s a lot that has gone wrong for the Arizona State program over the past several years. Between the end of the Todd Graham era and the debacle of the Herm Edwards era, the Sun Devils have not been a program of note save for the controversies surrounding them. Enter Kenny Dillingham.
The former Oregon offensive coordinator, who is from Phoenix and graduated from ASU, has injected the program with a much-needed bout of energy and excitement that it has not had in quite some time. Dillingham has the Sun Devils playing like they think they can compete for titles in just his second season at the helm. On Friday, they took down No. 16 Utah at home to go to 5-1 — their best start to a season since 2021 — and the always electric Dillingham reacted accordingly:
Kenny Dillingham with an instant classic postgame interview after @ASUFootball takes down No. 16 Utah at home 🤣#Big12FB | 📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/uyBXXEDETh
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 12, 2024
Behind a rushing attack that’s averaging over 200 yards per game and a rushing defense that has been in the top 25 in the country, Dillingham has the Sun Devils playing beyond their talent and circumstances. Though tougher matchups await against the likes of Oklahoma State, BYU and Kansas State, there’s no question that the 34-year-old coach has ASU headed in the right direction this year and well into the future. — Paolo Uggetti
