Why the Sabres still believe they're a playoff team
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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
The Buffalo Sabres were practically pronounced dead before the NHL season had officially begun.
Buffalo went out of the gate early for the league’s latest Global Series showcase in Prague. That put the Sabres some 4,000 miles from home, getting beat up by the New Jersey Devils in a pair of consecutive losses by a combined 7-2 score.
It would be days before another NHL team opened its schedule — leaving ample airtime devoted to debating how the suddenly 0-2 Sabres had already blown their chances of being a playoff team.
Because wasn’t that the only acceptable outcome for Buffalo anyway? Isn’t this the Sabres’ time to end the 13-year postseason drought — longest among clubs in the four major sports leagues — and reward a fan base that’s patiently waited for Buffalo to pull it together?
That remains the goal, overseas debacle be damned.
“We learned what not to do,” Sabres forward Alex Tuch said. “There were some good takeaways I think; it was a big learning experience. It’s something where you just have to realize that in this league, it’s tough. No matter what’s going on, who you’re playing, when you’re playing them, where you are in the world, you have to show up, and if you don’t, it’s not going to go your way. So I think it was a good eye-opener for this group, and we know how much better we need to be.”
Those wise words were unheeded. Buffalo — still without injured forward JJ Peterka after he was injured against the Devils — had nearly a week to prepare for its home opener against the Los Angeles Kings, and was brought down again, blowing an early 1-0 lead that was undone by an abysmal third period (and Anze Kopitar natural hat trick) in the eventual 3-1 loss.
Now Buffalo was staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start having scored just three goals in three games. The power play was 0-for-11. The Sabres’ best forwards — Tage Thompson and Tuch among them — looked snakebit. Zach Benson was struggling with an injury. And newly minted captain Rasmus Dahlin was clearly still feeling effects of the ailment he suffered during the preseason.
This wasn’t the Buffalo team anyone expected. Not when the organization brought back Lindy Ruff as head coach. Not when they had several maturing young talents on the roster ready to break out. Not when GM Kevyn Adams had essentially stood pat in free agency to give those homegrown skaters a chance to flourish.
Buffalo was already a confusing paradigm. And then the reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers came to town — and the Sabres slapped them 5-2 for that elusive first win.
Huh?
Suffice to say, the Sabres have been on a wild ride. Could the initial turmoil help Buffalo’s ultimate goal of punching a long-awaited ticket back to the postseason?
It’s not like anyone’s confidence inside the room is shaken … right?
“No,” said Tuch, when asked if the Sabres were rattled.
There’s not even a little concern about mounting pressure?
“Nope. We’re all about the next game.”
There are 78 more chances to prove there’s still reason to believe in Buffalo. Here’s why the playoff dream isn’t dead yet.
MARTIN BIRON HAS DONE the European thing, too.
He was one of three goalies the New York Rangers took to Sweden in 2011 for their own regular season opener. While the experience itself was top-notch, Biron was “dragging” after the first five or six days.
It was no surprise then to Biron — now an analyst for MSG Network — that Buffalo wasn’t exactly firing on all cylinders when it came time to face the Devils some 12 days into their European sojourn that included an exhibition outing against EHC Red Bull Munich in Germany, too.
“It’s not the best [way] to start,” Biron said. “But I almost feel like you’ve got to put those games aside. It was a long time [in Europe] and they just didn’t have their legs. And you move on. So it’s an 80-game season [then], and you’re trying to get to 95 points in 80 games, right? Is it challenging? Yes. But that’s how you have to look at it.”
On paper, it appeared Buffalo didn’t rise to the occasion in their next opportunity against the Kings. Biron begs to differ, though. It’s not that the Sabres — who whacked the Kings twice last season by a combined 12-3 — played poorly in the home opener; they just didn’t execute when it mattered.
“They looked really good,” Biron said. “If you look at the expected goals and the chances created, they were plus-14 in high-danger chances. The Sabres have never had a game where [the margin] was that high. They just couldn’t score. They couldn’t finish. And there were two [other] things that didn’t go well: the power play did not score again, and L.A. had a 5-on-3 for a minute [in the third period]. That didn’t work out good. They took a couple bad penalties [on Jason Zucker and Mattias Samuelsson]. That’s it.”
Those power-play woes might be the most consistent element of Buffalo’s season to date. Through four games, the Sabres are 0-for-14 with the extra man. Ruff has devoted long stretches of practice time to try remedying the problem; he’s tweaked the team’s looks, he’s yelled over botched attempts, but nothing so far is penetrating.
“We’re trying to generate a little bit more speed,” Ruff said. “We’ve got to get connected on the entries, and obviously both units changed when [Peterka and Zach Benson] went out.”
Biron’s perception on the special teams problems are similar, and he’s direct about what Buffalo must do to fix them.
“The first two games [in Prague], they were terrible on zone entries, and they were never in the zone because they couldn’t get possession,” he said. “That was better against L.A.; now it’s about getting second chances. I feel like they got some decent looks. But they really didn’t get any rebound looks, any screen looks, and that’s what the power play’s foundation should be about. You can’t just rely on a Tage Thompson one-timer. There’s still a lot of work to be done there.”
BUFFALO NEEDS MORE from its top players in every respect. The win over Florida was the Sabres’ most cohesive display offensively. And it’s easy to say Buffalo had an edge in that outing because the Panthers started backup goaltender Spencer Knight — his first since Feb. 18, 2023 — and they were missing both Aleksander Barkov (with an ankle injury) and Matthew Tkachuk (illness).
The Sabres overcame a 1-0 deficit in the first period because of key contributions from Jordan Greenway, Thompson and Tuch. That’s a good sign. Their best players — like any other team’s — have to be the ones driving offense. And there are others the Sabres are still waiting on to step up.
One of the blights on Buffalo’s 2023-24 season was the loss of forward Jack Quinn in January to a lower-body injury. That was after Quinn had been out long-term with an Achilles tendon issue. The prospect of having Quinn — who the team drafted eighth overall in 2020 — fully healthy to start this season was exciting. But he hasn’t quite clicked yet in a second-line spot with Dylan Cozens and Jiri Kulich, recording just one assist through the team’s first four games.
Quinn is counting on more production out of himself to align with some lofty goals for the season ahead.
“I want to be a really good offensive player in this league,” Quinn said. “I want to establish myself as that this year.”
Does Quinn feel like he’s begun doing that?
“No, not at all.”
Biron agrees that Quinn “hasn’t had a good start to the year” and it’s on him, Thompson, Peterka and Cozens — among others — to pull their weight as Buffalo drags itself out of less-than-ideal circumstances. And Ruff must push the right buttons to make that a reality.
“Lindy has to start to guide this team into being able to grind out some long shifts in the offensive zone,” Biron said. “It’s not just about rush chances, and then you’re out [of the zone]. Rush chances are great, but how about you spend 40 seconds or a minute in the offensive zone with good puck possession, with a point shot, with a recovery from a loose puck, and get the cycle going. That’s what I haven’t seen enough.”
Buffalo’s victory over Florida could be foundational, then. It was Ruff’s first win behind the Sabres’ bench since being fired during his initial go-around as coach from 1997 to 2013. Adams brought Ruff back after firing Don Granato in April, a reaction to the Sabres’ third failed attempt at making playoff under Granato’s leadership.
Ruff has had prior success in Buffalo. He guided the team to eight playoff appearances and a Stanley Cup Final appearance in 1999. Kicking off this tenure with a 1-3 mark wasn’t exactly the plan, but Ruff could see the Sabres perhaps starting to turn the proverbial corner.
“I sensed the same type of urgency [against] Florida as our last game [against L.A.],” Ruff said. “You could get frustrated, you could deviate; but I thought our guys were pretty locked in trying to play the right way, and for the most part I thought for 60 minutes we did. We got rewarded.”
And then some. It was a weight off Thompson’s shoulders to see some of those pucks — which had an annoying habit of finding every crossbar lately — hitting the net.
“You get one, and you start to feel good, especially after you feel like you could’ve had a few, and a goalie robs you or you just get a little unlucky,” Thompson said. “You’ve just got to stick with it. Keep shooting pucks and keep going to the net and stuff will open up.”
It all sounds right, anyway. The Sabres just have to back it up now on the ice. And their back end will be a significant factor in just how good Buffalo can eventually be. Dahlin claims to be at full strength again. Owen Power has been making progress. Henri Jokiharju is generating offense from the blue line, and Bowen Byram has untapped potential. If that group can continue to jell, it will be instrumental in getting Buffalo over the hump.
Another bright spot for the Sabres? Goaltending. And that hasn’t always been the case in Buffalo.
Right now they’re leaning on tandem of Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen after losing James Reimer — their projected third-stringer — on waivers. This is a big season for Levi in particular, who is poised to take on his heaviest NHL workload to date (he went 10-8-2 last season with an .899 save percentage and 3.10 goals-against average). Luukkonen was a go-to option for the Sabres in 2023-24, recording a 27-22-4 record with a .910 SV% and 2.57 GAA.
If both goalies can improve on that, it’ll give the Sabres a fighting chance every night.
“The least of their worries right now is goaltending,” Biron noted. “They’re good, and where they want it to be. If Luukkonen and Levi stay healthy, they’re going to be fine. And I actually love the upside in Levi and what he showed in training camp and what he showed in the one game [in Prague] when he almost stole them a point.”
THERE ARE NO moral victories, of course. The Sabres can’t be satisfied with another so-so year that leaves them outside looking in at the postseason field. And it’s way too soon to saddle them with such a fate.
There are too many recent examples — like the Edmonton Oilers starting last season 2-9-1 and still reaching the Cup Final — to count the Sabres out of a real playoff push.
It won’t be easy. The margin for error is already small, and will only feel suffocating if Buffalo hits any more speed bumps in the near future. There’s no use focusing on that, though. As the Sabres begin a three-game road trip, it’s about redemption, and momentum, and showing proof that one bad week is no reason to stop believing.
“I’m going to give them a pass,” Biron concluded. “The 0-3 start, it was really more like being 0-1 in my opinion from one bad game [in Prague]. They put themselves in a tough, tough spot early on for sure. But you’ve got to press on.”
