Inflation hasn’t been defeated yet because the housing crisis could bring it back

Housing inventory is still tight, and while mortgage rates are well below year-ago highs, they have climbed in recent weeks. According to Mortgage News Daily, the latest 30-year fixed rate was at 6.68%, up by 0.53 percentage point from a month ago.

That’s as the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has failed to trigger the sustained drop in borrowing costs that prospective homebuyers had long hoped for. In fact, mortgage rates may stay about where they are for a while as strong economic data and caution among Fed officials dampen the outlook for future easing.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac echoed that view in its latest housing market report on Friday, saying it sees mortgage rates slipping “very gradually over time, with potential volatility as economic news may surprise the market.”

Such incremental improvement won’t provide much of a boost to the housing market either as inventory stays constrained and homebuyers sit on the sidelines while waiting for mortgage rates to drop further, the report added.

There have been some signs that the lock-in effect is waning a bit as rates drop, putting more supply on the market, but that’s not enough to meet high demand—meaning home prices will keep rising, Freddie Mac predicted.

To be sure, the outlook for the overall economy looks positive, as the Fed’s half-point rate cut will boost consumer spending and credit, it said.

“However, while inflationary pressures have been declining, there are potential upside risks to inflation,” the report warned. “One area where inflation could resurge is housing inflation in an environment where the fundamental mismatch of supply and demand remains a major challenge for the housing market.”

Any re-acceleration in inflation could further diminish expectations for more relief from the Fed. The most recent consumer price data showed inflation was stickier than expected last month, making another jumbo-size rate cut unlikely.

And given that housing costs account for a large chunk of the range of expenses that go into official inflation readings, more upward pressure on that end could result in outsized effects on the overall data.

Continued strength in the economy and labor market may also leave less wiggle room for prices elsewhere, if housing inflation rebounds. Some analysts have even said that the U.S. will not only avoid a recession but also a “soft landing” slowdown, with the economy instead powering through to “no landing.”

As the housing crisis drags on, Americans are feeling trapped. Over a third (36%) of homeowners report feeling stuck in their house and unable to move, according to new research by Edelman Financial Engines. This rises to nearly 50% for homeowners under 50, who are mostly made up of Gen Z and millennials.

Even the high end of the housing market is feeling jammed, according to global real estate consultants Knight Frank, which released its Q4 2024 U.S. market report Thursday.

“Despite a higher prevalence of cash buyers, elevated borrowing costs have weighed on activity in luxury markets, too.” it said. “Prime buyers tend to have wealth tied up in other asset classes, many of which have been hurt by higher rates. That adds uncertainty, which has been compounded by the November election.”